Source: Global Times
[Global Times reporter Li Peisong Wang Panpan] "India is trying to win a seat at the negotiating table to determine the future course of action against Afghanistan" - the Indian Express reported on the 9th. On the 10th, India will hold a regional security dialogue on Afghanistan, which will be attended by senior security officials from Russia, Iran and five Central Asian countries. According to Indian media reports, Pakistan and China also received invitations from the Indian side, but neither side participated. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said in response to a question on China's non-participation in the meeting on the 9th that the Chinese side is inconvenient to attend the meeting because of the schedule, and we have replied to the Indian side.
According to Indian media reports such as India Today, the conference hosted by India will be held in the capital New Delhi on the 10th for a period of two days. The dialogue will be at the level of National Security Adviser or Minister and will be chaired by Dorval, India's National Security Adviser. Regarding the content of the meeting, the Indian Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying: "This high-level dialogue will assess the regional security situation caused by recent developments in Afghanistan and discuss in detail measures to address related security challenges and support the Afghan people in advancing peace, security and stability." ”
On the eve of the dialogue meeting, the two old enemies of India and Pakistan fought a war of words. According to the "India Express" reported on the 9th, Pakistan's prime minister's national security adviser Yusuf was asked at a press conference recently whether he attended the dialogue meeting and made it clear: "I will not go." A saboteur cannot be a messenger of peace. The Indian source told the media: "The only reason we invited them (Pakistan) to participate in the meeting was because of the mode of the meeting." ”
The Indian media seems to be grumpy about the reasons why China did not attend the meeting. India Today said that the Chinese side said that it decided not to participate in the meeting due to schedule reasons, but was willing to discuss relevant issues with the Indian side through bilateral channels. "India is very eager for China to be able to attend, but there is no reason to question their absence." The Hindu newspaper said on the 9th that senior Chinese officials attended an important meeting of the CPC Central Committee in Beijing this week, but the Chinese side did not explain why "other senior security officials did not replace the meeting."
After the Taliban took over power from the Afghan government in August this year, the parties held a series of meetings to promote the development of the situation in Afghanistan. India did not invite the Taliban to the meeting. India Today said that on this issue, india's statement is that "none of the participating countries recognize the Taliban government, nor does any stakeholder country ask for the invitation of Afghan officials."
India's convening of the Dialogue on Afghanistan seems to be an experiment in its "status." The Indian Express quoted sources as saying that the response of the countries concerned to India's invitation was "extremely positive" and "shows that the countries concerned attach importance to India's role in efforts to promote peace and security in Afghanistan in the region". India is trying to use the meeting to secure a seat for itself at the negotiating table to determine the course of future action against Afghanistan. A source told the newspaper: "When you're not at the table, you're on the menu. India's intention in convening this dialogue is to set up the table, sit at the table and decide on the agenda. ”
Qian Feng, director and researcher of the Research Department of the National Institute of National Strategic Studies of Tsinghua University, told the Global Times reporter on the 9th that after the US occupation until the Taliban took power, India has maintained close relations with successive kabul governments through economic assistance, political support, and capacity building. After the Taliban came to power, India's main concerns about the situation in Afghanistan are four points: First, it fears that its influence will be increasingly marginalized and it will become a "forgotten role" in various Arab-related mechanisms. Second, it is feared that encouraged by the Taliban's re-seizure of power, various anti-Indian armed groups active in South Asia will further increase their expansion and infiltration, coupled with the loss of a large number of US-made individual weapons and equipment, which may impact the security and stability of Indian-controlled Kashmir. The third is to worry about the long-term huge investment in Afghanistan. The fourth is to worry about being in an unfavorable situation in the geopolitical game with Pakistan in the future.
Qian Feng said that India's hosting of this meeting is undoubtedly to highlight its sense of existence on the Afghan issue in the current situation, expand its own discourse power by increasing contacts with Central Asian countries, Iran, Russia and other regional stakeholders, and strive to reverse the diplomatic passive situation since the Taliban came to power and avoid further damage to its strategic interests in Afghanistan. But India has long been hostile to the Taliban, and its influence in Afghanistan will hardly return to its previous level.