Chen Hao: Short-term is not easy to do! Slow bull tests people's shareholding determination, how to crack? Small editor's note: pattern analysis strategy analysis

On Monday, the three major indexes opened with mixed gains and falls, with the Shanghai index oscillating in a narrow range at the 3500-point integer mark, and the ChiNext index rushing higher and falling back. In the afternoon, the index was red, and the Shanghai index continued to consolidate in a narrow range, and the index once rose by more than 1%. The turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan for the 12th consecutive trading day. As of the close, the Shanghai Index reported 3498.63 points, up 0.20%; the Shenzhen Component Index reported 14508.86 points, up 0.32%; and the Chuangchuang Index reported 3380.29, up 0.82%.

Today, the three major indexes have turned red across the board in the face of overall strength. It is worth mentioning that two new phenomena have occurred in the market: one is the comeback of cyclical stocks with continuous adjustment; the other is the continuous trillion transactions, even if the structural opportunities in the market are still prominent, and the participation of funds is gradually improving, but the market is still weak, what is the solution? Perhaps as Wolf Shuai Chen Hao said, A shares have always been oscillating slow bulls! Tune in today's push analysis to take you to the market context!

Chen Hao

The A-share market has always been a volatile slow bull, and there is currently no basis for mad bulls. Slow bulls test people's stock holding determination, and short-term is not easy to do.

The future stock market pattern is different from the stock market we are familiar with for nearly 30 years, and now the stock market is gradually the style of the mature market in the West, which is equivalent to saying that only a small number of stocks represent the stock market, such as the Dow Jones only 30, the Standard & Poor's only 500, on this small number of stocks represent the entire economy, and most of the stocks belong to the institution to re-tap to dig out the good; from a universal point of view, it is the market's non-performing assets, so it does not rise because the listed company's operating quality is poor. So to look at the financial statements, it is not enough to listen to the news.

The stocks in question have now fallen into slag, and the problems are generally reflected in these problems such as high inventory rate, high receivables ratio, high debt ratio, and high pledge rate. All these oddly high stocks have basically fallen through now, and the possibility of continuing to fall is not particularly large. But if you want to make the stock double and double up, you need to talk about performance, and the passing line of performance is 15% of the return on net assets, which everyone needs to pay attention to; growth stocks can be lowered, the minimum must be 8%, and the growth concept must belong to the leading stocks in this core track, that is, the core strategic stocks of growth stocks.

There are always individual stocks that are individual institutions that look at individual subjects, and we should ignore them. Because there are so many stocks, you can't find which stock is next. The lesson worth saying is that in the first quarter of 2019, the rise was all garbage stocks to make up for it, and when everyone chased it, the result was a whole year of escape. So these stocks are unreliable, that is, it is impossible to double twice, and one surge will end here.

Institutions and short-term lines are gradually drifting apart, and even if the institutions are slightly larger, they will face the problem of insufficient liquidity. If the retail investors are packaged as a whole, the total shareholding of small and medium-sized investors below 500,000 is also about 10 trillion yuan. Therefore, the liquidity of the market only allows a very small number of investors to exchange shares. Can go in, can not come out, the boat small good turn is actually a false proposition. If it is really so easy to flip the short, the stop loss can really be implemented, and after 5178 points, there will not be so many retail investors shouting for help.

Therefore, for value stocks, to do a foreseeable future, the net profit is not less than 8% year-on-year growth of white horse stocks, that is, value growth. For growth stocks, we must adopt a national strategy of upgrading within 5 years, and stocks are the leaders of various industries. As for how high the stock price is, it is outrageous? Each fund manager grasps the scale themselves, but at present it is only more than three thousand points, and there is no fear of heights in the index, nor does it have individual stocks. If you ignore the short-term, in the long run I believe that the market is strong and strong.

For example, if we expect Ma Yun, will anyone beat him in a year? If not, then you honestly become a shareholder. So my approach is not to look too far away, not to look too close; to watch three or five years to do a year, and to brush it again this time next year. The most important thing is that you have to understand that whether you buy a fund or speculate in stocks, this place is not here to get rich, and the important significance of the capital market is to give you a chance so that the "class" you have worked so hard to create does not decline. Let's say that the total ranking of 1.4 billion people in the country, for example, you can rank in the top 2/3, which is definitely the upper middle class. If you use the capital market, 50 years later, you will lie flat and still maintain your current "class" status. The stock market should have the ability to make money for almost all the money and capital, and as long as you come to this place, it will allow you to "class" lock in.