On November 7, Zheng Yongnian, dean of the Institute for Global and Contemporary China Advanced Study at the University of Chinese in Hong Kong, Shenzhen, recently pointed out in a speech at a summit forum that the US Air Force and Navy have recently dispatched five strategic reconnaissance aircraft to the South China Sea, and under the tense situation in the South China Sea, the militarization trend is gradually emerging.
However, Zheng Yongnian pointed out that opening a front in the South China Sea is not in the core interests of China and the United States, so both sides will exercise restraint and will not further escalate the situation. Zheng Yongnian analyzed that the areas where military conflicts between China and the United States may occur are mainly concentrated in the following places, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, the South China Sea, and Taiwan. Among them, under the effective control of China, the terrorist forces have been reduced, leaving little room for THE United States to infiltrate, so the United States cannot set off any big waves in Hong Kong and Xinjiang.
In this way, Taiwan has become the region most likely to erupt into military conflict between China and the United States. Zheng Yongnian believes that China and the United States need to manage military risks on the Taiwan issue and be wary of the United States launching a proxy war. At the same time, Zheng Yongnian warned Southeast Asian countries to take their own interests as the starting point and avoid getting involved in the Sino-US proxy war, otherwise they will eventually suffer the consequences of their own.
Zheng Yongnian said that the United States has little chance of winning the war against China on the Taiwan issue. He believes that on the Taiwan issue, China has no room to back down. Because the Taiwan issue, as a historical legacy, is also the "last symbol of China's sense of shame" in modern times. As Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's inherent territory, there is no room for compromise on the Taiwan issue, only room for negotiations on the path of reunification. As for why the United States could not win after the war broke out between China and the United States over the Taiwan issue, Zheng Yongnian said that because the Taiwan issue is a war of will for China to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Whether in terms of logistics and supply, or from the will to war, the United States cannot take advantage of firing at the People's Liberation Army at the doorstep of China. Moreover, as a country that has always respected the supremacy of interests, whether the United States will catch up with the fate and future of the United States for Taiwan is a question mark. In addition, one point that cannot be ignored is that China and the United States are both nuclear powers, and once a military conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, whether the United States will choose to intervene in the Taiwan Strait is also a big question mark.
When it comes to whether the world pattern will regress to the two-tiered pattern of the Cold War period after the deterioration of Sino-US relations. Zheng Yongnian said that today's world, economy and trade, humanities, science and technology and other fields have achieved deep integration, even if THE MOUTH OF US politicians shout "decoupling" all day long. But the data shows that even in the years when the Trade War between China and the United States has been at its most intense, the dependence between the Chinese and American economies is still very high. Moreover, the amount of investment by US companies in China has not decreased but has increased, which also fully demonstrates the high dependence of the United States on the Chinese market.
Zheng Yongnian said that as long as the United States still believes in the capitalist system, China still adheres to reform and opening up, and the two major economies of China and the United States will not "decouple" it. In addition, Zheng Yongnian also stressed that the world's move toward multipolarization is an irreversible general trend, and if the United States cannot objectively view China's rise, the "anti-China" policy of the United States will one day regurgitate itself.