Text | Yang Wanli
The vaccine sector suffered a fierce blow from the bears.
On November 8, vaccine stocks represented by CanSino, Watson Bio, and Fosun Pharma plunged more than 6% intraday, directly related to a piece of news.
On November 5, EASTERN TIME, pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced that the new crown oral drug under research reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%. After the news fermented, the anti-epidemic concept stocks of the US stock market generally fell. Under the transmission of cautious sentiment, vaccine stocks such as A shares fell sharply today.
There is a user analysis on the scale app, saying, "The reason why the market is sensitive is because this technology impact is large." Previously, mrna technology (injectable) was the key development direction of vaccine companies, and domestic vaccine companies Watson Bio and Fosun Pharma were involved.
Taking Watson Biology as an example, the company has predicted that if the MNA vaccine is successfully put into production, the domestic and foreign demand will be 2-3 billion doses, calculated according to the overseas pricing of 17-20 US dollars / dose, the domestic pricing is less than 14 US dollars / needle, and the sales revenue is expected to exceed 30 billion US dollars, equivalent to 66 times the company's revenue in 2020.
However, with the advent of the new crown oral drug, the investment logic of pharmaceutical companies betting on MRA vaccine technology has been broken."
We are concerned that Watson Bio has been cut from the high point.
The k-line shows that the company's stock price has fallen all the way since hitting a high of 96.73 yuan on August 5, falling to a low of 47.69 yuan today.
In just 61 trading days, the company fell by as much as 50.69%, and the total market value evaporated by more than 70 billion yuan. According to this estimate, the per capita loss of 133,700 shareholders exceeded 520,000 yuan.
As of the date of publication, the company's stock price is about 47.96 yuan, and the total market value is about 76.31 billion yuan.
The sharp correction in Watson's stock price may be related to 2 reasons.
First, the early stage has risen more, and there is a demand for corrections. Since the beginning of the year, Watson Bio has entered the main rising wave, and the stock price has risen from a high of near 33 yuan to 96.73 yuan, an increase of more than 193%. Some funds do not rule out choosing to take profits at a high level, resulting in a downward trend in the stock price.
Second, the heat of vaccine stocks has cooled down. Since July, individual stocks such as CanSino, Watson Bio, and Fosun Pharmaceutical have gradually peaked, and the sector has collectively pulled back.
This year, Watson Bio staged a bull market in the secondary market. At the end of 2020, this company was once caught in a public opinion storm.
At the beginning of December last year, Watson Bio announced that it intends to transfer 32.60% of the equity of Its HPV vaccine subsidiary Shanghai Zerun to Zibo Yunze and others, and the equity transfer payment is about 1.14 billion yuan.
With blockbuster products such as bivalent and nine-valent preventive cervical cancer vaccines (HPV vaccines), Shanghai Zerun is regarded as one of the company's core assets. The sudden sale of the equity of the subsidiary immediately caused controversy from the outside world and even attracted the intervention of regulators.
On December 6 last year, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter of concern to Watson Biotech, and on December 7, the Yunnan Securities Regulatory Bureau issued an inquiry letter to it.
At that time, some financial media believed that Watson Bio may have the problem of inconsistent management and shareholder interests. The biggest feature of Watson Bio is that the company is in a state of no actual controller, and the company's shareholding structure is very dispersed.
Under the impact of a series of negative news, Watson Bio's stock price plummeted, and the stock price did not reverse until the beginning of this year.
What do you think of the sharp decline in vaccine stocks such as Watson Biology? Feel free to leave a comment below!