Financial Street Telegraph/Independent Economist Du Meng: The Era of The Economist Independent Economist Du Meng: The Era of the Economist

Original Financial Street Telecommunications/Science, Freedom and Prosperity

Included in the topic #CHINA Capital Politics and Economics 41 content

Last night seemed to have a dream, but it was not a dream. Because ordinary dreams are people or things, and I don't, I seem to suddenly think about the question of what kind of era we are living in. The epidemic or the plague suddenly changed our feelings about time, time seemed to stop, and then the times seemed to stop. The so-called era, because with the past, the present and the future, and the future of meaning need to have ideals, goals or purposes, if not, or the past, present and future is just a simple repetition, time seems to have no meaning, becoming the cycle of the four seasons. Of course, some people say that the change of seasons is also vitality.

Right now, the only way we can get out of this time standstill is to end the epidemic. So I became interested in how THE COVID-19 pandemic would end, and I raised it again during the evening reading discussion. Starting from the relationship between the new crown virus and people, we can think of ways to prevent the spread of the virus between people, and the virus must infect people to have an effect on people. Of course, there are two ways here, the virus directly infects people, and the virus indirectly infects people through human-to-human transmission. Block the chain of virus transmission, this is a way to think of it purely from the perspective of people, human beings can't do anything about the virus, but they can control people, the simplest thing is to isolate. This approach distinguishes China from foreign countries. Of course, at the beginning there was a debate about wearing a mask, and now I don't argue about this, the main debate is whether to clear zero.

From a global point of view, this problem is complicated, because today's society has been highly mobile, and the non-mobile economy will have major problems, but there is a big difference between traditional society and information society, and Chinese society can certainly control it, of course, there are institutional and cultural reasons, but it cannot be said that there is no information society. Many people have not noticed that China's current information infrastructure has led the world, especially for the identification and positioning of two-dimensional codes, which can not only achieve accurate control of the flow of people and people, but also play a certain space. Behind this is not simply the competition of biotechnology, but also the problem of information infrastructure.

Another way is to start from the virus itself, because this new coronavirus is a coronavirus, and human beings do not have a direct and effective way to do the coronavirus, so this scientific and technological problem is still a basic theoretical problem. If you want to find a simple special medicine immediately, I am afraid that the accident is relatively large, and it is not easy to predict and grasp. Of course, if it appears, it may be possible to solve this problem completely in theory, and of course, it must be that the cost of overcoming the virus can be afforded by ordinary people.

Another solution, and a general way to overcome epidemic-borne diseases, is vaccines. But our current vaccines cannot completely stop the spread of the virus, but only reduce mortality or appropriately reduce the rate of transmission. At present, with the mutation of the virus, this effect has not seen much effect for a short time. The first of the three solutions is conditional on having a strong Government, but there is no strong world Government now, so it is almost impossible to completely solve the global problems through the first solution, and only to achieve "independence" in some regions. The second method can be cured, but the contingency is too strong, and it requires a major breakthrough in the basic theory, not simply to tackle scientific and technological problems. The third method is the most realistic, and it is also the method that is actually implemented at present, which is to take improvement and gradually reduce the impact of the epidemic on people's production and life, but this solution cannot be solved in a short period of time. It will take about one to two years at the earliest, which means that the COVID-19 pandemic will completely shape the world in the 20th century and 20 years.

We haven't had time to refresh our ideals yet, and we're faced with more realistic and intractable problems.

So why are economists involved? Because of the topic of "common prosperity", many of our articles actually involve a lot of economists, and economists of course have his own era, and there is a certain truth in what they say from different positions. For example, Zhang Weiying advocates the market, advocates liberalism, he stands on the standpoint of Hayek and other liberals to say whether there is reason, reasonable, no reason, the world will not be popular liberalism, echoing the era of the United States, all the way to the top, money has become the most concerned economic issues, finance has become the best profession, know that there is a financial crisis. I burst the bubble myself, but I can only engage in a market economy, because there is no other choice.

Therefore, Chen Ping said that the economist in the video of the Observer Network has some meaning, especially why he sided with Lin Yifu between Lin Yifu and Zhang Weiying. It also mentioned Xu Chenggang, to be honest, I didn't pay much attention to this person before, read an article, it turned out that he was a student of Kornai. He is on the side of the socialist market economy. Anyway, it's a realistic path. You see, between the United States and the Soviet Union, some countries in transition and transition have been opened up, not to look at the market economy alone, nor to look at the planned economy alone, and to see that many problems are common to the two, such as the most resource allocation problem, saying that not only the market economy can achieve optimal allocation, in fact, the planned economy can also be optimally allocated by itself, so it is problematic to divide efficiency and fairness.

Philosophically, of course, this shift in thinking is simple, because regulations are always one-sided, not dialectical. But what's next for the global economy? I think our side boldly raised the issue of "common prosperity", but this formulation is not necessarily new, in fact, from the Gini coefficient, China is more urgent than Europe and the United States, because the gap between rich and poor is greater. There are also hot words in the media about open economy and conservatism, it seems that the economy is to take care of their own interests or to pay attention to the issue of win-win results, the more direct example is the submarine order problem between the United States, France and Austria, almost a few brothers disregard the unity and resistance of the righteousness directly tore up. The United States does not say "common prosperity" on its lips, but in fact it also discusses the issue of taxing the rich every day, because the principle of regulation of the market economy is actually a welfare principle, that is, the problem of secondary and tertiary distribution.

However, the overall, systematic original global economic system now has a clear force to gradually evolve this system into a dual-core operation model, and Biden and his team seem to be working hard to build this new system. The local metabolism of the system can not be due to the evolution of the system and any lack of material and energy, a little careless, the global economy will face major risks. Economists, at this moment, whether or not they win the Nobel Prize, seem weak.

The content sent by Financial Street Telecommunications is for the purpose of learning and communication only

#Fifty Independent Economists #Executive President of China Doctoral Association Du Meng, President of Financial Street Telecommunications Cecu China Enterprise Capital Alliance, famous independent economist, doctor of economics, known as one of China's four major financial geeks, Ghost Town Doctor. He is a member of the Peking University branch of the Kuomintang Revolutionary Committee. Representative works: "Monetary Science", "Money and Banking", "Introduction to Investment Management", "Real Estate Development and Operation", "Ghost Town Theory", etc. He has presided over the daily operation and management of the group headquarters and listed companies, controlled the investment areas and subsidiary companies to which he belongs, the development area of tens of millions of square meters, has the working background of the main person in charge of domestic and foreign listed companies, the dual work experience of capital operation and real estate investment and development, and is a representative figure of the academic and practical schools in the financial and real estate circles; he has served as an enterprise executive of different backgrounds such as military enterprises, state-owned enterprises, school enterprises, and listed groups.

China Doctors Association Financial Street Telecom Henan

Wang Xinhua/Editor

Financial Street Telecom is the earliest portal in the financial industry invested and founded by entrepreneurs of the Chinese Doctoral Association. China's leading provider of financial information and business information, the first financial information and business information "real-time" model, important information in seconds push, to provide users with information, data, quotes, research and community services, 7 * 24 hours a year uninterrupted

Business Finance International Perspective Focus on Financial Street Telecommunications

Financial Street Telegraph Henan Wang Xinhua Editor