Introduction: The core of a fund manager's investment framework is self-consistency, and the system should match its own personality, worldview, and values. Yu Kemiao, the investment manager of CEIBS Fund, is an old friend I have known for 10 years. But in terms of personality, Yu Kemiao has always been relatively stable, not too extreme in his work, and very friendly and reliable to people. The stability of Yu Kemiao's personality is also reflected in his investment system, his investment framework is more balanced, and when he values the growth of the enterprise, he also pays attention to the margin of safety and only buys his own companies with cognitive ability. Yu Kemiao told us that his goal is to pursue a sustained and stable net worth curve.
As an investment manager who is a pharmaceutical researcher, Yu Kemiao has a more obvious bottom-up style of choosing growth stocks, but will also join the meso industry comparison. In the choice of industry, Yu Kemiao attaches the most importance to the industry competition barriers, and then superimposed relatively rapid growth, so that excellent enterprises are easy to obtain excess returns. In terms of individual stock investment, Yu Kemiao mainly studies the business model and moat, understanding the quality and sustainability of the company's growth. He once did a review of pharmaceutical long bull stocks, and found that long bull stocks have a common feature: excellent business model + strong moat, which in turn has brought about sustained and rapid growth in performance. This has also had a profound impact on Yu Kemiao's investment.
Another one that has a greater impact on Yu Kemiao is a medical service chain company. Yu Kemiao found that the valuation of this company has not been cheap since its listing, but through continuous growth, it has brought a long-term high rate of return to the holders. In terms of investment, Yu Kemiao also tends to buy big bull stocks that hold excellent business models. He once had a heavy position in medical services and consumer building materials during the period of public funds. Yu Kemiao's investment system can also be seen from these two companies: 1) the acceleration of performance growth verified by the financial report; 2) the business model is malleable, and the corresponding market space is large; 3) the company has an obvious moat; 4) the management has a deeper understanding of the related industry; 5) the corresponding market value or valuation has a strong margin of safety; 6) the certainty of doubling the performance can be seen.
Yu Kemiao has a clear positioning of his circle of ability, not only to continuously expand the circle of ability, but also not to make investment outside the circle of ability. Regarding the expansion of the circle of ability, Yu Kemiao started from the subdivision of medicine with a large number of sub-industries, and slowly expanded to other fields by understanding the flexibility of business models. He believes that there are three steps to the expansion of the circle of competence: 1) look more at the company; 2) do more comparison and thinking; and 3) accept more feedback at the market level. For not investing outside the circle of ability, Yu Kemiao constantly emphasizes cognitive ability, he will not buy companies that exceed his cognitive ability, do not buy stocks for allocation, and once he does not understand the market value, he would rather sell. Investment is inevitably accompanied by uncertainty, uncertainty is risk, in the cognitive range of investment, can effectively avoid risks.
Yu Kemiao, with a distinct growth style, also attaches great importance to the margin of safety in investment. He believes that the margin of safety does not exactly equate to low valuation, and some highly valued companies also have a high margin of safety. Margin of safety is the understanding of a company's maximum drawdown, with margin of safety thinking, you can dare to increase the position in the process of holding a decline. On the contrary, the kind of company that can be ambiguous up and down, Yu Kemiao will basically choose to give up. Historically, we have also seen that the retracement of Yu Kemiao even in the bear market is smaller than the market average, and the entire portfolio has relatively strong stability.
At the end of the interview, Yu Kemiao said a sentence that touched my heart very much, he believes that investment is not compared with others, but with himself, so that the holder is satisfied, and the degree of satisfaction can be made. Or perhaps it is this calm mentality that allows him to move forward steadily in the high-volatility capital market.
Below, let's first share some investment "golden sentences" from Yu Kemiao:
1. My investment is to pursue the long-term sustained stability of performance under a certain style
2. I usually hope to find two types of sources of growth: the first is the first growth curve where the industry penetration rate is relatively low and there is still a large room for improvement in the future penetration rate; the second is that the competitive pattern of the industry will change, and excellent companies can grow the second growth curve by increasing market share
3. Looking at it for a long time, long bull stocks have common characteristics: the business model is very good, and there is a strong moat
4. In my investments, I rarely buy companies that I don't see the end in and don't have a margin of safety
5. When analyzing and comparing companies, it is necessary to constantly think about business models and moats, and understand the quality and sustainability of the company's growth, which is the focus of the study
6. I will constantly reflect on the company I bought the right company and the wrong company, which is also the process of expanding the circle of ability
7. The margin of safety I set for the company is relatively harsh, so that once it falls, I dare to increase the position
8. Within the CEIBS Fund, we will communicate frequently, and everyone will share their insights to achieve the effect of 1+1 greater than 2
9. The platform value of CEIBS Fund is very large, the overall team synergy is very strong, emphasizing the 4P+1C (the English initials of people, concepts, processes, platforms and cultures) investment research system, helping us to continuously improve investment performance and strive for better long-term performance
10. Investment is compared with yourself, not with others, so that the holder is satisfied and satisfied
Pursue the continued stability of the net worth curve
Juan: Can you talk about how you think about investing?
Yu Kemiao I think investment is divided into several levels.
First of all, everyone should have their own investment goals. My investment is to pursue the long-term stability of performance under a certain style. The investment goal should start from the feelings of the holders, do a good job of controlling the drawdown, and constantly experience the feelings of the holders.
Second, investment is in the midst of many uncertainties, looking for certainty. Uncertainty corresponds to risk. This means that investing is a process that requires constant thinking and improvement. At the same time, we must adhere to the circle of ability and respect common sense in order to avoid irreparable losses in uncertainty.
Third, investment is a kind of accompaniment for excellent enterprises. Fund managers invest money in excellent listed companies to accompany the growth stage of the company's life cycle. In my investment history, the relatively large investment income comes from the accompaniment of excellent enterprises. But we also need to avoid two phases: the bubble phase of the business life cycle and the recession phase of the business life cycle. Avoiding these two stages is likely to bring a better return on investment.
Finally, investment is a reflection of everyone's personality, and fund managers with different personalities will build completely different portfolios and investment operations.
Juan: Can you talk about your investment framework?
Yu Kemiao I came from a background in the pharmaceutical industry, the initial investment framework was more bottom-up, and later I made a fund manager who could invest in the whole market, and also joined the top-down mesoscopic industry comparison.
In the industry, I prefer two kinds of industries, one is that the penetration rate is relatively low, can develop rapidly, but the competition barriers are relatively large; the other is that the industry is relatively stable, and the competition pattern has begun to appear some relatively large changes.
From the bottom up, it is more about analyzing the company's business model and moat, judging the quality and sustainability of the company's growth, and also judging whether the company has a margin of safety.
Zhu Ang: The rapid growth industry pattern is usually more scattered, and the stable industry is not growing too fast, how do you make a trade-off?
Yu Kemiao I think the pattern of the industry is very important, the pattern is better, usually representing that the enterprise can establish some barriers. If anyone in an industry can do it, then the profitability of the enterprise will not be very high. When I choose an industry, I prefer areas that can build barriers and have better growth. I usually hope to find two types of growth sources: the first is the first growth curve where the industry penetration rate is relatively low and there is still a large room for improvement in the future penetration rate; the second is that the competitive landscape of the industry will change, and excellent companies can grow the second growth curve by increasing market share.
Historically, I have mainly invested in growth industries, mainly in the three major fields of medicine, consumption, and technology, and the industrial chain of real estate has also been involved before, but in the strong cycle industry, I have been allocating less. The reason behind it is also because the strong cycle industry has surpassed its own circle of ability.
The common denominator of long bull stocks: good mode + strong moat
Zhu Ang: How does individual stock selection work?
Yu Kemiao Before I made an investment, I pulled out the big bull stocks in the pharmaceutical industry covered by the researcher era and looked at it, and enterprises with good business models, formula supply advantages, brands, research and development capabilities, and continuously expanding product lines had a greater probability of obtaining higher growth.
This review inspired me a lot, I found that so many years of various pharmaceutical stocks have been studied, there are many companies in a year or two is a big bull stock, but in the long run, the long bull stock has a common feature: the business model is very good, and there must be a strong moat, which in turn has brought about the company's sustained high-quality growth.
When studying companies, I first have to understand the company's business model. For example, the company's strategic positioning; the type of product or service, whether it is standardized or non-standardized; customer characteristics, whether the customer is small B, big B or C; how to allocate the pricing power of the industrial chain; key resource acquisition capabilities and so on. Understanding the company's business model, you can find the company's moat. For example, consumer companies mainly judge brand power and channel power; technology companies mainly look at the improvement of research and development capabilities. The quality of the business model can correspond to what the growth curve of the enterprise is, which helps us know the growth momentum and continuous cycle.
Finally, a company's business model and moat must be implemented in the financial statements. The company with the best business model, free cash flow is good, which can be reflected in all aspects of the financial report.
I've also done some moat refinements, mainly several types of moats:
1) The moat on the supply side, that is, the cost of competition, including patented technology, learning and experience advantages in complex production processes, license advantages, etc., such moat companies are mainly science and technology enterprises;
2) The moat on the demand side, that is, customer loyalty, including brand power, channel power, conversion costs, etc., such moat companies are mainly consumer enterprises;
3) Economies of scale superimpose customer loyalty moats, such moat companies are dominated by manufacturing companies.
Through these refinements, the enterprises are almost classified. My classification of enterprises is more from the perspective of business model, from which I understand how enterprises create value.
Juan: Does valuation matter to you?
Valuation is also important, if not the most important factor in buying a company. My value judgment will mainly start from the perspective of market capitalization space. Of course, many companies also have a hard time making reasonable value judgments, and companies that exceed cognitive abilities will also choose to give up. So in my investments, I rarely buy companies that don't see the end in sight and have particularly high valuations.
Zhu Ang: You initially looked at medicine, and then you made a market-wide investment, can you talk about how you expanded your circle of ability?
The advantage of studying the pharmaceutical industry is that there are many sub-industries, with different business models and moats, and the methodologies of many pharmaceutical companies can also be shared in some other industries. I think the expansion of the circle of competence is divided into several steps:
The first step is to look at different companies. The more companies you look at, the more you can recognize different types of businesses. Just like I have watched medicine for many years before, I can gradually build my own cognitive system for enterprises in the industry;
The second step is to think more about comparison. Through thinking and comparing, we can learn from each other, find the CCP part of the enterprise, and understand the growth source behind the business model. It is easier to find commonalities through medicine to see consumption. The logic of many pharmaceutical companies is very similar to that of consumer goods companies, and they can understand what the core essence of consumer goods companies is, how companies can build brands and enhance customer loyalty. When looking at technology companies, it is also similar to innovative drugs and biological drugs in medicine, and the essence is a unique production process and patents. When looking at the general manufacturing industry, it is similar to generic drugs in medicine, and economies of scale are the core factors.
When analyzing and comparing companies, it is necessary to constantly think about business models, look for moats, and understand the quality and sustainability of the company's growth, which is the focus of the research. In addition to this, it is also necessary to study the business cycle of the enterprise. Only companies with a relatively long business cycle can be converted to a relatively long holding period.
The third step is to test yourself through the market, constantly revise your own views, and improve your cognitive level. I will constantly reflect on the company I bought the right one and the wrong company, which is also the process of expanding the circle of ability. The test of the market allows me to know where the margins of my investment are.
Both to find the bull stock and to hold the bull stock
Zhu Ang: Can you share 1 or 2 representative investment cases?
Yu Kemiao Let me give you two cases, one is in the pharmaceutical industry, and the other is in the non-pharmaceutical industry.
The first case is a company in a healthcare service.
In 2018, I have a basic judgment on the pharmaceutical industry, pharmaceutical companies face the risk of collection, the medical industry will be better than the pharmaceutical industry, and then increase the proportion of medical services allocated, reduce the proportion of drug allocation.
A share medical services mainly include listed companies in the fields of ophthalmology, stomatology, physical examination and other fields, we found that dental consumption is still very low in China, such as the number of domestic implants a year is about 3 million, which is comparable to South Korea, but our population base is much larger than that of South Korea, and the industry market space is very large; at the same time, the dental industry is very dependent on doctors, and high-quality brands and services have built a strong industry barrier.
The company's management has been in contact with us for many years, they are very professional in the operation of dental hospitals, and they are constantly learning the advanced business philosophy and business model overseas, and applying it to their own system.
Standing at that point in time, our judgment is very simple: the company has a strong moat, the probability of expansion is very high, and the sustainability of the company's performance growth will be relatively strong. The company's dynamic valuation is about 40 times, the market value space is large, combined with the growth, there is a strong margin of safety. In addition, we have previously invested in a chain of ophthalmic companies, and have a deeper understanding of the business model of medical services, so we have repositioned this company.
The second case is a building materials hardware company that has earned us more than ten times the income.
First, let's talk about how we got to this company. Initially, we invested in another consumer building materials company, and the results were not good. That company's products are mainly aimed at rough houses, when we reflect on the review, we found that in recent years, the proportion of hardcover houses has increased, the proportion of rough houses has declined, and we should look for companies that benefit from the increase in the proportion of hardcover houses. From the perspective of customer groups, there are natural defects in the business model of companies whose customers are big B, and they are not as good as customers who are small B companies. From this perspective, I found this company.
After the company went public, revenue growth and gross profit margin were relatively stable, but the profit growth rate was not very good. After our research, we found that the company has done three aspects of work after listing: (1) channel construction, expansion of sales personnel, and improvement of channel capabilities; (2) improvement of information level and warehousing capacity; (3) expansion of product lines through self-research and mergers and acquisitions. This has also led to a significantly lower profit growth rate than the revenue growth rate after the listing.
At that time, a basic judgment was that the company's investment in the past few years was about to enter the harvest period, the per capita output was expected to be improved, the category expansion would be smoothly promoted, and the net profit margin would gradually return to the pre-listing level, driving the company's profit growth rate to increase; and the company's service attributes were expected to bring strong customer loyalty and build the company's moat on the basis of economies of scale. At the same time, I found that the company's management attaches great importance to receivables and has a very deep understanding of cash flow, indicating that the company's growth in the next few years is high-quality, which enhances my confidence in the sustainability of the company's growth. Combined with the valuation level of 10 times at that time, I chose to buy.
Zhu Ang: How can you hold these companies?
Yu Kemiao I think selling stocks is mainly from the perspective of expected yields. When a stock changes from 1 times in 3 years to 1 times in 5 years, whether it is willing to accept such an expected rate of return, if it is willing to accept, then holding is a good choice.
How to see the expected rate of return? I think the key is to understand where the company is in its life cycle. I also believe in my heart of the value of long-term holdings, as long as the fundamentals of the company have not changed significantly and the market value has not exceeded my cognitive range. Like the company mentioned earlier, in the fourth quarter of 2020 reached what I think is relatively high, this market value has exceeded my cognitive ability, and I have sold a lot.
Looking back, I feel that I need to accompany the growth of the company to have a chance to make a lot of money, and I have a deep feeling about this.
Companies that buy must see the margin of safety
Zhu Ang: Quality, growth, valuation, how would you rank it?
Yu Kemiao Three are very important, when I look at the company myself, I will first look at growth, and then look at quality, the combination of the two to know the sustainability of growth, and finally look at the valuation. I will value the margin of safety, but this is not simply corresponding to a valuation level, but including multiple indicators such as market value space, valuation level, and DCF. Before I buy a company, I will try to predict a market value space, from the market value space corresponding to how much I can earn at most. If the market value space cannot be predicted, then combine PE, PEG and other indicators to determine whether the company has a margin of safety. I've historically bought companies with high valuations, but they're growing so well that high valuations don't necessarily directly correspond to high risks.
Juan: Do you value winning percentages and odds?
Yu Kemiao I will think about the margin of safety, not the winning percentage and odds. How much money a company ends up making is difficult to judge, and many times it is given by the market. I look at this investment in terms of margin of safety + expected rate of return. The margin of safety I set for the company is relatively harsh, so that once it falls, I dare to increase my position. If a company, I know little about the fundamentals, can not see the margin of safety, the probability will not be bought. For example, in history, my innovative drug companies have invested very little, and the probability of success of such companies is relatively low, the valuation is particularly expensive, and the grasp is not high.
Zhu Ang: In terms of portfolio management, what do you do?
Yu Kemiao My portfolio is balanced and grows, with growth assets as the mainstay, and consumer assets and value assets will also be allocated in a certain proportion, but there are relatively few cyclical assets.
Juan: You started working as a fund manager in the bear market in 2018, did that have any impact on your investments?
Yu Kemiao I started as a fund manager in the market bull, and the core impact is the perception of risk. So I look at the company's perspective more comprehensively, and studying a company will be more in-depth.
The perception of risk also brings me to the margin of safety. Investment must avoid irreparable losses. If a company can't understand it, then I will choose to sell. In addition, don't do mean reversion in valuation, see a flawed company valuation is much cheaper than similar companies, just do valuation regression, look back, a lot of these operations are wrong. Investment must return to the origin of the company's growth.
Zhu Ang: In your personal investment career, are there any leap points or mutation points?
Yu Kemiao In the more than three years that I have been investing, if there is any change, I think it is slowly realizing the importance of the circle of ability. When I first started investing, I would invest in any company, and now I know that everyone's cognitive ability has boundaries. As Buffett puts it, "It doesn't matter what most people in an investment know, more importantly, they know what they don't understand" so that pointless losses can be avoided. Today, I'm not going to buy stocks because I'm going to make a allocation. The company that buys must have an understanding.
It is also important to look at the life cycle of a business and understand the company and the industry from a life cycle perspective.
The value of the CEIBS platform brings cognitive sharing
Zhu Ang: How do you view the cultural and platform value of fund companies?
Yu Kemiao The CEIBS Fund has created a multi-strategy boutique, with active equity valuable, growth, industry selection and other large groups. These large groups only have differences in investment methods, but usually there are many research results shared. Within the CEIBS Fund, we communicate frequently, and everyone shares their insights to achieve the effect of 1+1 greater than 2. There are also many exchanges between fund managers, which can realize group army operations.
What CEIBS fund advocates is not only that one product is good, but that each product strives to achieve the upper middle level. You will find that basically all are doing well and there is nothing flawed about the product. Being able to communicate with good fund managers of different styles has helped me a lot.
We also have a very special value, and we always say that long-term performance is good. What we pursue is that fund managers strive to do a good job in their long-term performance, and with the holder's better habits, there is an opportunity to help the holder achieve long-term good returns.
The research platform of ce-EU fund is also very strong, the number of investment research personnel of the company accounts for 50%, and the research department is made into a research platform, which can provide "ammunition" for different styles of investment teams. We emphasize that each researcher should eat through 5 companies, and the research team is not only large, but also has strong combat effectiveness. Especially with the growth of scale in recent years, CEIBS fund has changed the past "small team system" into today's "big platform system", which is both "deep" and "wide". And our researchers have a characteristic, many of them are researchers who have followed fund managers before, similar to the role of assistant fund managers of other companies, and their research has a strong practical nature.
In ce-EU Fund, we attach great importance to standardized and systematic investment research processes to create a precipitated investment and research platform. Emphasize the more efficient linking of fragmented investment research individuals into a systematic investment research process. Under this system, fund managers can obtain continuous scientific research output, which brings great help to us to create long-term excess returns.
Overall, ceibus fund's platform value is very large, the overall team is very collaborative, emphasizing the 4P+1C (the english initials of people, ideas, processes, platforms and culture) investment research system, helping us to continuously improve investment performance and strive for better long-term performance.
Zhu Ang: The pressure of investment is very large, how do you resist the pressure?
Yu Kemiao I think the more stressful it is, the more we have to think about what the market is reflecting and where our deviation from the market is. The solution to the pressure is to continue to learn and expand the circle of ability, so that the investment opportunities that can be grasped will also increase.
My starting point for buying a company is definitely to hold it for a long time, but some company fundamentals are not so perfect, it is true that it cannot be taken for many years, some belong to cyclical growth stocks, so the downward fluctuations of the cycle are as far as possible to avoid, so that the pressure will be less.
In life, I will relieve stress by spending time with my children. Another important point is that investment is compared with yourself, not with others, so that you can be satisfied and the holder is satisfied. We have to accept an imperfect self, admit that there are some styles, not in our own circle of ability. Of course, if you are lagging behind for a year or two, you must think about the problem of investment methods.
Zhu Ang: Are there any books that have had a greater impact on your investment?
Yu Kemiao I prefer to watch Peter. Lynch's book, his methodology is very simple and practical. Many of my confusions about investing have been written in his book, including the issue of concentration and dispersion of shareholdings, and the issue of holding cycles, which can bring me a lot of inspiration.
Juan: If you weren't a fund manager, what would you do?
Yu Kemiao If I don't want to be a fund manager, I would quite like to be a teacher. On the one hand, teachers need to constantly learn to improve themselves, on the other hand, teachers can pass on their knowledge and learning methods to students.
Risk Warning: The fund is risky and should be invested with caution. This content belongs to Ceibble Fund Management Limited and is not to be quoted or reproduced without consent, the views and forecasts contained herein represent only the views of the time and are subject to change in the future. The above is for informational purposes only and is not indicative of future performance or as any investment advice.
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