#新中美貿易戰##中美貿易摩擦##拜登##美國通貨膨脹##特朗普##
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美國貿易霸淩主義破壞全球商品和服務供應鍊
長期以來，一些國家一直通過關稅作為保護和支撐國内産業的手段。
然而，曆史和研究已經表明，這種做法對經濟的影響往往根本達不到其所宣傳炒作的效果。
星期二，拜登宣布最新的美國進口關稅措施：為保護被認為具有戰略和國家安全重要性的行業，對中國進口商品加征更高關稅。
經濟學家預計，新宣布對從中國180億美元的進口商品加征更高關稅對GDP、通貨膨脹和貨币政策隻會有極小的短期影響，有些人将其比作僅是一個“四舍五入的誤差”。然而，從更廣泛的層面看，情況可能更為複雜。
經濟學家喬·布魯蘇埃拉告訴CNN：“拜登政府這次宣布對中國加征關稅預示着美中之間正在進行的經濟沖突的進入了漫長而寒冷的冬天。”
這次加稅是建立在前總統唐納德·特朗普2018年和2019年對中國和其他貿易夥伴加征總計3000億美元的關稅計劃仍然存在基礎上進行的。
特朗普承諾，如果他當選，将會加征更多關稅——不僅是對中國，而且是對所有進口商品加征10%的關稅。經濟學家表示，這不僅會在美國造成嚴重失業，而且還會給通貨膨脹火上澆油。
一、對經濟增長、通貨膨脹和美聯儲的影響
新加征的關稅将從現在開始延續到2006年，其推出正處于美國的經濟增長充滿活力和消費者支出強勁，但美聯儲為應對數十年來再現的高通貨膨脹而繼續保持高利率的時刻。
牛津經濟研究院美國首席經濟學家瑞恩·斯威特說，拜登的關稅計劃可能不會為貨币政策帶來變化。
斯威特周一在有報道說美國将改變其關稅政策時寫的一篇文章中說：“新加征的關系對通貨膨脹和GDP來說，基本是一個舍入誤差，對貨币政策也沒有影響。美聯儲不可能用一個鼹鼠土堆造出一座山。因而，關稅不會為其證明更長時間保持高利率的合理性提供附加理由。"
在星期二了解到拜登加征的關稅的全面範圍後，斯威特告訴CNN，他的哪些預期沒有重大變化。
二、對美國國内制造業的負面影響
2002年，當喬治·W·布什總統對進口鋼鐵和鋁産品加征關稅時，研究表明，盡管經濟隻損失了3000萬美元，但它導緻美國鋼鐵消費行業價格上漲，整個鋼鐵行業特别是哪些沒有能力影響市場價格的小公司大量失業。
7年後，當奧巴馬總統對從中國進口的輪胎的加征關稅時，其宣布的初衷是挽救美國輪胎行業1200個工作崗位，但彼得森國際經濟研究所卻發現，輪胎價格的上漲卻給美國造成11億美元的損失。
聯邦儲備銀行的經濟學家指出，特朗普2018年加征的關稅并沒有直接導緻就業增長，但卻因更高的投入開支和報複性關稅導緻淨失業增加和消費品價格上漲。
三、給消費者帶來更高的成本
斯威特指出，關稅的政治意義通常大于經濟意義。他寫道：“大多數經濟學家将關稅視為壞主意，因為它們阻止一個國家利用比較優勢的利益，擾亂商品和服務的流動，導緻資源錯配。關稅通常會讓消費者和生産商支付更高的價格。”
這是因為當進口商品進岸時關稅會增加美國經銷商、零售商并最終增加消費者的開支。
美國國際貿易委員會在2023年的一項研究中說，美國進口商“承擔了特朗普關稅的幾乎全部成本”。
更糟糕的是，一些企業似乎通過進一步提高價格來從貿易戰中獲利。
高盛發現，關稅促使美國生産商和中國以外的其他向美國市場出口的出口商“借機提高他們的價格”。
紐約聯邦儲備銀行發現，2018年的關稅使美國家庭因更高的稅率負擔和市場效率降低平均損失419美元。研究人員估計，在2019年生效的關稅将使這種損失翻一倍。
因通貨膨脹高企美聯儲被迫維持高利率
随着時間的推移，關稅可能帶來的積極經濟影響已經變得更少。
全國經濟研究所的經濟學家在2024年1月出版的工作報告中寫道：進口關稅、報複關稅和農業補貼對美國就業和商業的純經濟效果“從最好的方面看無益，甚至可能有害”。
研究人員在報告中指出，貿易戰似乎确實在增強受關稅影響最大的美國中心地帶和社群對共和黨的支援方面起到了政治作用。
他們寫道：“受關稅保護地區的居民變得不太可能認同民主黨人，而更有可能投票給特朗普總統。盡管他們也付出了經濟代價，但選民們因而似乎對關稅對當地工業的保護做出了積極回應。"
四、對美國進口的影響
新冠肺炎疫情導緻供應鍊混亂，扭曲了2018-2019年加征關稅對美國制造業和貿易影響的全貌。
富國銀行的經濟學家在4月份的一份報告中寫道，美國進口商開始時試圖取代中國商品，但一旦疫情來襲和美國消費需求增長，國内庫存水準快速下降，從中國的進口迅速回升。
富國銀行的經濟學家尼克·塞爾維在一個訪談中告訴CNN,但到2023年底，從中國的進口比2019年下降了3%，從南韓、新加坡、台灣和越南的進口增長了50%。
塞爾維說：“一些确定無疑的資料顯示，我們看到了從中國以外國家更強勁的進口，其中一些也許是中國企業将他們的生産轉移到其他不受301關稅條款影響的國家。”
海空貨運分析與後勤公司Xeneta的首席分析師皮特·桑德說,最近的海空貨運資料進一步顯示中國公司可能試圖通過墨西哥規避美國的關稅。
Xeneta的資料顯示，從中國到墨西哥的集裝箱船運進口量1月份爆增60%，一季度增長了34%。
桑德在一次采訪中告訴CNN：“那是個大數字，令人難以置信。”這條過去很小的貿易路線現在卻是世界上最繁忙的之一。
他說：“很明顯，這些進口商品的目的地不僅僅是墨西哥國内。”
What Biden’s tariffs on Chinese imports may mean for American jobs, the economy and inflation. By Alicia Wallace, CNN, May 14, 2024.
Countries have long imposed tariffs as a means of protecting and shoring up domestic industries.
However, history and research have shown that the economic effects often fail to live up to the hype.
On Tuesday, the Biden administration announced the latest iteration of American import taxes: a wave of new and heightened tariffs on Chinese exports across a slew of industries deemed strategic to national security.
Economists expect that the newly announced $18 billion in tariffs likely will have a minimal near-term impact on GDP, inflation and monetary policy — some equating it to a mere “rounding error.” However, on a broader level, the picture could be more complex.
“The tariffs announced on China by the Biden administration foreshadow what is going to be a long, cold winter of economic conflict between the US and China,” economist Joe Brusuelas at RSM US told CNN.
The latest tariffs build upon former President Donald Trump’s sweeping $300 billion program in 2018 and 2019, which levied tariffs heavily against China and a variety of other trading partners and is still in effect.
Trump has made campaign trail promises for even steeper tariffs if he were elected — not just for China but an across-the-board 10% tariff on all imports, which economists have said would not only result in significant job losses in the US but also stoke inflation.
Economic growth, inflation and the Fed
The latest tariffs, which would roll out some time between now and 2026, come amid a solid job market, robust economic growth and strong consumer spending — but also a continuing battle against decades-high inflation that is keeping interest rates higher.
Biden’s tariff plan likely won’t move the needle for monetary policy, said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics.
“The additional tariffs are essentially a rounding error for inflation and GDP, carrying no implications for monetary policy,” Sweet wrote in a note issued Monday, when reports first indicated that changes to the US tariff policy were forthcoming. “The Fed will not make a mountain out of a mole hill, so the tariffs will not provide additional ammunition to justify keeping interest rates high for longer.”
On Tuesday, after learning the fuller scope of the Biden administration’s tariffs, Sweet told CNN those expectations shouldn’t change significantly.
Domestic manufacturing
In 2002, when President George W. Bush placed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum products, studies show that while it only cost the economy $30 million, it resulted in higher prices for American steel-consuming industries and led to a steep loss of jobs throughout the steel industry, especially among smaller firms that didn’t have the market power to influence prices.
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Seven years later, when President Barack Obama increased tariffs on tires imported from China, the initiative was credited with saving about 1,200 jobs in the US tire manufacturing industry, but came at a $1.1 billion cost to Americans in the form of higher prices, the Peterson Institute for International Economics found.
The 2018 tariffs imposed by Trump did not result in an immediate boost to manufacturing employment but instead led to a net loss of jobs and rising prices for consumers due to higher input costs and retaliatory tariffs, Federal Reserve economists noted in a 2019 paper.
Costs to consumers
Tariffs typically make more political sense than economic sense, Sweet noted.
“Most economists view tariffs as a bad idea because they prevent a country from reaping the benefits of specialization, disrupt the movement of goods and services, and lead to a misallocation of resources,” Sweet wrote. “Consumers and producers often pay higher prices when tariffs are implemented.”
That’s because tariffs tax imports when they come ashore, adding costs for US distributors, retailers and, ultimately, consumers.
The US International Trade Commission said in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of the Trump tariffs.
Worse, some businesses appeared to take advantage of the trade war by bumping up prices even higher.
Goldman Sachs found that tariffs allowed US producers and non-Chinese exporters to the US market to “opportunistically raise their prices as well.”
The New York Fed found that the 2018 tariffs cost US households $419 per year because of higher tax burdens and market efficiency losses. Researchers estimated that would double as the tariffs went into effect in 2019.
As more time has passed, the positive economic effects have become even less clear cut.
The net economic effect of the import tariffs, retaliatory tariffs and agricultural subsidies “was at best a wash, and it may have been mildly negative,” to US jobs and businesses, economists wrote in a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper published in January 2024.
The trade war did appear to have political benefits in strengthening support for the Republican party in the US heartland and communities most affected by the tariffs, researchers noted in the NBER working paper.
“Residents of tariff-protected locations became less likely to identify as Democrats and more likely to vote for President Trump,” they wrote. “Voters thus appear to have responded favorably to the extension of tariff protections to local industries despite their economic cost.”
The flow of imports
The Covid-19 pandemic’s discombobulating effects on supply chains distort the full picture of how the 2018-2019 tariffs affected US manufacturing and trade.
US importers had started to substitute away from Chinese goods, but once the pandemic struck and US consumer demand increased, domestic inventory levels drew down quickly and China imports ramped back up, Wells Fargo economists wrote in an April note.
However, by the end of 2023, imports from China were down 3% relative to 2019 while there was a 50% growth in imports from South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, Nicole Cervi, an economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN in an interview.
“There’s definitely some data to suggest that we’ve seen stronger imports from countries outside of China, and some of it may be that Chinese businesses are perhaps relocating some of their operations to these other countries that are not being affected by the Section 301 tariffs,” Cervi said.
Recent ocean and air freight data gives further rise to suspicions that China may be trying to circumvent US tariffs via Mexico, said Peter Sand, chief analyst with Xeneta, an ocean and air freight analytics and logistics company.
Container shipping imports from China to Mexico rocketed higher by 60% in January and 34% for the first quarter, Xeneta data shows.
“That’s a lot,” Sand told CNN in an interview. “It’s staggering.”
What was once an immature trade lane is now one of the busiest in the world, he said.
“It’s obvious that imports to this extent are not only for domestic purposes in Mexico,” he said.