5.9會議開幕直播 | 關于家庭和居住安排的預測/分析以及在健康老齡化和可持續發展研究中的應用

中國的家庭戶數量和結構正随着人口快速老化而發生巨大變化，是以，家庭和居住安排的預測分析變得尤為重要。生育、結婚、離婚、同居、同居解體、遷移和子女離家等人口要素變化将帶來不同類型和規模家庭戶（例如，空巢老人家庭戶、有同時肩負照料老人和撫養孩子重任的中年人的家庭戶，等等），在家戶數量和比例上都有重大變化，進而引申出一系列家庭人口社會經濟、健康老齡化和可持續發展相關問題。就這些議題的現狀和未來發展趨勢的分析和預測，對中國和世界各國應對人口老化的嚴峻挑戰，進行科學決策具有重大現實意義。

本次會議由來自中國、新加坡、荷蘭、美國、紐西蘭、泰國、印度尼西亞、巴基斯坦、越南、伊朗、巴西等國家的學者做30多個學術報告，涉及議題包括家庭和居住安排的過去趨勢和現狀分析、家庭和居住安排的機率預測方法研究進展、家庭和居住安排機率預測和分析的使用者友好軟體開發研究進展、家庭和居住安排預測/分析與健康老齡化研究、家庭和居住安排分析與老年護理和政策分析、家庭和居住安排預測/分析與可持續發展研究、未來家庭和居住安排變化的前景和政策對策等。

時間：2024年5月9上午9:00-13:00

地點：北京大學國家發展院

語言：英文

主辦：北京大學國家發展院健康老齡與發展研究中心、中國人口與發展研究中心、新加坡國立大學家庭與人口研究中心

議程

9:00~11:00 Opening Ceremony and Session 1 of keynote speeches

Chair: Junjian Yi (Boya Distinguished Professor, National School of Development, Peking University)

9:00~9:20 Opening Ceremony

Opening remarks by Dandan Zhang (Associate Dean, National School of Development, Peking University)

Brief speeches by:

Wenzhuang Yang (Director General of Department of Population Surveillance and Family Development of National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China);

Dan He (Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)

Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor of Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Deputy Director of Center for Families and Population Research at National University of Singapore)

9:20~11:00 Keynote speeches

Frans Willekens (Professor and former Director of Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demography Institute, and Member of Netherlands Royal Academy of Sciences): Issues in Households and Living Arrangements Projections (Online);

Michael Murphy (Professor of Department of Methodology at London School of Economics and Political Science; Member of the British Royal Academy and Member of the British Academy of Social Sciences): Household and Living Arrangement Projections in the United Kingdom Using the Extended Cohort-Component Method -- An application of the ProFamy Methods/software (Online);

David Banks (Professor of the Practice of Statistics, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University): Probabilistic Projections of Households and Home-based Care for the US Elderly (Online);

Junjian Yi (Boya Distinguished Professor, National School of Development, Peking University): Falling Fertility Differentials in China: Incomplete Contract, Filial Piety, and Demand-side Fertility Policies

Open discussions.

11:00~11:10; Group photo

11:10~11:20; Coffee and tea break

11:20~13:00; Section 2

Analyses on the past trends and present statuses of households and living arrangements

Chair: Patama Vapattanawong (Professor, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Thailand)

Aris Ananta (Professor, Department of Economics, Indonesia Universitas; former President of Asian Population Association): Marital Status Transition Matrix in Indonesia;

Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of Population Council in New York, and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University): Changes in household size composition and its demographic driving forces;

Milad Bagi (Assistant Professor of Demography, Department of Social Sciences, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University): Past Experiences and Future Directions of Female-Headed Households in Iran;

Shuzhuo Li (Professor of School of Public Policies and Management at Xiaan Jiaotong University): Population Aging and Living Arrangements in Asia: Facts, Observations, and Responses.

Open discussions.

直播平台

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