胡柏山
博鳌亞洲論壇機構理事
vivo 執行副總裁、首席營運官
HU Baishan
Corporate Member of the Boao Forum for Asia,
Executive Vice President & COO, vivo
問：目前各國，包括美國和歐洲國家，陸續推出晶片和綠色産業政策。你如何看待産業政策對科技創新活力的影響？
答：目前新一輪科技革命和産業變革加速演進，前沿、颠覆性技術持續湧現，産業政策對培育未來産業、帶動産業更新、開辟新賽道、塑造新質生産力有至關重要的作用。
首先，行業創新瓶頸問題要求基礎理論、底層技術的突破，而通過國家重大科技項目攻關、國家重點實驗室研究等，可以加快技術突破，打破創新瓶頸。
其次，蒸汽機、内燃機、電氣化、資訊革命都是單一技術革命，而目前正在演進的智能革命，則是人工智能、虛拟現實、空間感覺、腦機接口、生物工程等各種底層技術的混合革命，更需要跨技術領域、跨産業的協作和産業政策的指引，發揮國家戰略科技領軍作用，打造原創技術策源地。
最後，基礎理論、前沿技術和颠覆性技術突破的投入巨大，但又具有高度不确定性，企業往往很難承擔如此高的風險，以舉國之力對決定未來國家競争力的方向進行重投入猶為必要。
vivo堅持使用者導向的差異化創新，夯實研發底座，希望在國家産業政策的支援下，促進産業鍊、供應鍊集體繁榮，加速産業轉型更新，促進新質生産力快速發展。
問：AI在去年的突破性進展橫空出世，短期内你預期哪些領域的科技革命最可能逼近“奇點”？
答：我們企業和使用者共同成長29年，作為非常了解使用者需求的科技企業，vivo更擅長去判斷哪些消費級科技革命逼近“奇點”。首先，要看使用者需求變化有沒有形成顯著趨勢；其次，我們會在技術研發過程中，尋找能夠滿足使用者需求的科技長賽道。如果使用者需求趨勢顯著，且對應的技術長賽道有跨越式的進展，說明“奇點”可能到來。
近年來，使用者對于科技的“随身便攜”需求愈發旺盛，我們期待一個“萬能”的科技産品随時随地都在我們身邊。我們當然可以把這種需求了解為對“手機行業”的基礎需求，但考慮到近期不斷突破的通信、晶片、人工智能和影像傳感技術等，一款隐藏在人們身邊可以提供各種智慧服務的“機器人”成為可能，這也許就是一個“奇點”。簡單來講，我們認為手機行業本身就是科技革命最有可能逼近的“奇點”。
多年來，vivo中央研究院基于使用者需求和技術趨勢選擇在“設計、影像、系統、性能”四個長賽道上深耕；2023年vivo還推出了自己的技術品牌“藍科技”，其中vivo自研通用大模型矩陣——藍心大模型，是手機行業裡釋出最早、能力最強的開放大模型之一。手機有真實的使用者需求，行業裡也有大量類似vivo藍科技的科技創新不斷湧現，相信很快會有突破性進展的科技産品出現。
Q: Currently, various countries, including the United States and European nations, are successively introducing policies on semiconductors and green industries. How do you view the impact of industrial policies on the vitality of technological innovation?
A: At present, as the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation accelerates, cutting-edge and disruptive technologies continue to emerge. Industrial policies play a crucial role in nurturing future industries, driving industrial upgrades, opening new tracks, and shaping new quality productive forces.
First, the innovation bottleneck in the industry requires breakthroughs in basic theories and underlying technologies. This can be accelerated through tackling key technological projects at the national level and research in national key laboratories, thus breaking through the innovation bottleneck.
Secondly, the steam engine, internal combustion engine, electrification, and information revolution were all revolutions of single technologies. However, the ongoing intelligence revolution is a hybrid revolution of various underlying technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, spatial perception, brain-computer interfaces, and bioengineering. This revolution requires more cross-technological and cross-industrial collaboration and guidance from industrial policies. It emphasizes the leading role of national strategic technological initiatives to create original technology sources.
Lastly, the investment in basic theories, frontier technologies, and disruptive technological breakthroughs is enormous and highly uncertain. It’s often difficult for enterprises to bear such high risks, making it necessary for national efforts to re-invest in directions that determine the future competitiveness of the country.
vivo insists on user-oriented differentiated innovation, solidifying its R&D foundation, and hopes to promote the collective prosperity of the industrial and supply chains under the support of national industrial policies. This aims to accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, and promote the rapid development of new quality productive forces.
Q: AI saw significant breakthroughs in 2023. In which areas do you foresee that technology will most likely approach “singularity” in the short term?
A: vivo, as a tech company deeply attuned to user needs, excels at identifying which consumer tech revolutions are nearing the “singularity.” First, we look for significant trends in user needs; next, during our technology R&D process, we seek long-term tech avenues that can meet these needs. If there’s a noticeable trend in user demands and corresponding technology paths are making leapfrog progress, it indicates that the “singularity” might be approaching.
In recent years, there’s been a growing demand for technology to be “portable and personal, ” with expectations for a “do-it-all” tech product that’s always by our side. While this demand could be seen as a fundamental need within the mobile phone industry, considering the recent breakthroughs in communication, chip technology, artificial intelligence, and imaging sensors, the possibility of a “robot” that blends into our surroundings and provides various smart services has emerged. This could well be a “singularity.” In short, we believe the mobile phone industry itself is where the tech revolution is most likely to approach the “singularity.”
Over the years, the vivo Central Research Institute focuses on “design, imaging, systems, and performance” based on user demands and technological trends. In 2023, vivo also launched its technology brand “BlueLM” including vivo’s self-developed general large model matrix—BlueLM, one of the earliest released and most capable open large models in the mobile industry. With real user demands and a wealth of technological innovations like vivo’s BlueLM emerging in the industry, we believe it won’t be long before breakthrough tech products appear.