A股為何大跌？

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摘要

中信建投表示，各國央行不斷增持黃金，黃金仍是當下全球大類資産首選。

中信證券

認為，

今年二三季度，市場很可能再度迎來存款利率的新一輪調整

。

機構表示，近期A股調整主要受美元指數走高、短期獲利回吐壓力較高等因素影響。

中信建投

黃金仍是當下全球大類資産首選

中信建投指出，Q2海外流動性沖擊或拖累美股，A股進入周線連漲後的收益兌現期。債市方面，美債利率從震蕩轉為下行，中債利率下行趨勢未結束。商品市場方面，全球商品CRB指數在流動性充裕下反彈，但二季度預計流動性會有邊際收斂，目前建議逢高減配。在大類資産配置對沖高波動市場越發重要的背景下，各國央行不斷增持黃金，黃金仍是當下全球大類資産首選。

中信證券

今年二三季度市場很可能再度迎來存款利率的新一輪調整

中信證券研報指出，考慮存款降息的時間規律以及銀行息差壓力和存款定期化的問題，今年二三季度，市場很可能再度迎來存款利率的新一輪調整，甚至不排除在4月就有相關措施落地的可能。如果存款降息，參考曆史經驗，可能會推動包括國債利率在内的廣譜利率進一步下行；同時，銀行理财等低風險資管産品會迎來增量資金，增大債市配置力量。

機構論市

A股為何大跌？

國盛證券：

近日市場表現為高位題材股分化加劇出現退潮迹象，短期獲利回吐壓力較高，市場風格進行高低切換。人民币匯率短期出現波動，匯率市場出現短期分歧，但随着大陸經濟基本面預期的改善，外彙市場表現或趨于平穩。

海通證券：

4月份的走勢，往往對A股一年内的走向具有指導意義，而4月股市的一個重要特征，就是股價的相對漲跌與一季報業績具有較高的相關性，即盈利增速越高，個股的表現相對越好。

國金證券

：目前風險雖未明顯暴露，但已經在逐漸累積，投資收益的“成本效益”下降，預計3月下旬4月初A股上漲動力将大機率減弱，市場波動率或趨于上升，建議成長逢高止盈，逐漸切換至價值防禦。

中金公司：

2月初以來A股市場在穩增長政策發力、資本市場改革預期背景下展開反彈，近期指數圍繞關鍵點位震蕩一段時間後，投資者正在關注新的上行催化。短期消息面邊際變化放大投資者的情緒波動，受美元指數走高等外部因素影響，人民币匯率波動也有所加大。往後看，我們認為雖仍不排除短期波動，但A股修複行情仍有望延續。

方正證券：

目前A股仍處于行情在猶豫中前行的第二階段，仍處于以時間換空間的震蕩蓄勢過程中，A股在高位蓄勢的周期越長，籌碼交換的越充分，市場的持倉成本越高，則大盤上攻的動力越大，大盤經過充分蓄勢後，将向第二目标3282點(回補去年8月7日留下的缺口)挺進。

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rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: 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