合資燃油車能否抗住降價潮？緊湊級車将成新戰場

進入2024年，多款改款和新釋出車型陸續登場，汽車行業的節奏越來越快。其中，價格變化的快節奏最為市場感覺。根據乘用車市場資訊聯席會（以下稱乘聯會）的摸底，截至發稿，今年已經有51款車降價，數量達到2023年的一半，插電混動和純電動車型是主力。

圖檔來源：崔東樹微信公衆号

節奏“亂”是另一個特征。一美系合資品牌4S店銷售人員對車市睿見表示，現在市場完全不按淡旺季和六到八月買車最便宜的節奏來，“（卷價格）對我們的影響很大。”而在乘聯會秘書長崔東樹看來，目前價格戰主要是直接突破原有價格下限，而不是增配不降價的模式。

從細分市場看，價格低于約21萬元的緊湊型轎車和SUV成為價格戰的新戰場。該細分市場價格降低約1.5萬元，可能使潛在市場規模擴大一倍。日産汽車、大衆汽車、比亞迪、豐田汽車是主要的車企主導。

不過，随着今年比亞迪将新能源汽車車型價格普遍下調10%-20%，以及其他中國品牌跟進，從2月的緊湊型轎車的銷量排行來看，軒逸、朗逸、速騰等合資品牌燃油車還是被“逼”出了“舒适圈”。

▍合資燃油車反攻是否見效？

為何年初就如此“血拼”？競争加劇和對包括新能源汽車在内的汽車需求增長放緩是主要驅動因素。受疫情和經濟形勢影響，消費者對于汽車購買的意願和能力都有所下降，進而導緻市場的萎縮。而萎縮的市場又帶來了競争的加劇，價格戰在此背景下應運而生。

另一方面來看，降價确實帶來了實打實的銷量。

合資車企緊湊級燃油車，此前由軒逸、朗逸、速騰霸占銷量榜的前三，而帶頭卷價格的比亞迪，已經嘗到了降價的甜頭。資料顯示，秦PLUS榮耀版上市首周訂單超過2.3萬輛，超過部分同級别合資車型1月銷量，2月銷量則為21,268台，一舉登頂。

圖檔來源：懂車帝

從其他車型上來看，盡管合資車型也在努力降價，見到了一定的效果，但是從實際上來看，更像是呼聲大過了行動。在降價力度上，合資燃油車也沒有對自己更狠一點。

以軒逸為例，秦 PLUS推出榮耀版後，雖然軒逸立刻跟随喊出“油比電穩、更比電低”，給出了6.98萬元的超低起售價，但實際上，這隻是針對舊版軒逸經典款給出的政策，而新款軒逸售價仍在10萬元以上，遠超自主品牌車型7萬-8萬元的售價。朗逸也同樣如此，主銷車型售價也仍在10萬元以上。

圖檔來源：東風日産

車市睿見也走訪了位于北京的幾家合資車企4S店，對于最低配車型，店内銷售人員均表示無貨或需要等待數周，而極力推薦其他配置車型。但相反的，在比亞迪的4S店中，銷售人員表示目前賣的最好的就是7.98萬元的秦PLUS DM-i，并且如果真的想購入的話，價格“還可以談”。

面對自主品牌的強烈攻勢，合資車企正面臨着前所未有的挑戰。一方面，新能源汽車的技術進步與政府政策導向使得消費者對電動車的認知度和接受度不斷提高；另一方面，國産新能源車型的成本效益優勢日益凸顯，這無疑給長期以來依賴品質和技術優勢站穩腳跟的合資燃油車帶來了巨大壓力。

▍産業鍊成熟賦予更大空間

比亞迪秦PLUS的價格之是以能一降再降，殺入燃油車腹地，重要的一點是新能源産業鍊更加成熟，賦予了新能源車更大的空間。

首先，電池成本不斷下降使得整車價格向下浮動。電池級碳酸锂的價格已經從最高點的近60萬/噸，大幅降價至目前11萬/噸。比亞迪秦PLUS榮耀版搭載的磷酸鐵锂電池，在價格上相比去年的冠軍版已經腰斬。

圖檔來源：比亞迪

同時，以比亞迪為首的自主品牌車企已經越來越多的控制上下遊全産業鍊，比亞迪通過自産自銷零部件以及規模化優勢獲得了更大的讓利空間。

電池成本的下降以及産業鍊控制度的結合，也為整體降價潮打好了基礎。

此前，在中國電動汽車百人會論壇（2024）上，比亞迪董事長王傳福大膽預測，3個月内新能源車滲透率将達50%。王傳福認為，新能源汽車是不可逆轉的趨勢，截至24年3月中國新能源汽車滲透率已突破到48.2%，王傳福判斷，按照這個速度發展，新能源汽車的滲透率可能會更高，形成新能源汽車在市場的主導地位。

中國科學院院士、中國電動汽車百人會副理事長歐陽明高此前表示，“從産業角度看，短期是從增量探索發展到存量博弈，市場競争會比較慘烈。一是新能源汽車行業本身的優勝劣汰，另外就是新能源汽車跟燃油車的博弈到了決戰階段，自主品牌跟合資品牌的博弈也到了白熱化的程度。”

圖檔來源：網絡

在這個過程中，新能源車和燃油車并駕齊驅已經成為必然趨勢，車企也必須認識到，從目前市場趨勢上看，燃油車或許短時間内不會被淘汰，但不夠智能化、配置不豐富的燃油車則勢必要先行“離場”。

編輯丨楊　果

排版丨

楊　

朔

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, 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#2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, 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#259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: 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