小心，美國一定會突然變臉

1

美國向來喜歡變臉，并且善于在忽左忽右的過程中收割全球。

特别是美聯儲的加息、降息預期管理，玩地爐火純青；每一次聯儲議息會議，整個金融市場都如臨大敵。

然而，我們普通人沒辦法改變老美的仗勢欺人，唯一能做的就是不要和它針尖對麥芒，順着它調整自己的投資政策。

2月22日淩晨，美聯儲公布了2024年1月末會議紀要，提到了“在對通脹持續向2%邁進更有信心之前，降息并不合适。”

為啥不合适？

因為美聯儲官員，非常菩薩心。

他們觀察到一些家庭，特别是中低收入的家庭财務狀況并不好，生活壓力可能在快速加大；

比如信用卡資料中心顯示，中低收入群體拖欠率正在攀升，意思是越來越多的人還不起貸款了。

此外，

2023年第四季度，美國信用卡類債務總額達到了1.13萬億美元，中國信用卡類債務餘額粗略統計差不多8萬億元。

表面看，兩個國家信用卡債務大抵相同，但是人均算下來，美國信用卡債務差不多是我們的5倍。   

又比如，美國最近的就業增長集中在少數幾個行業，特别是餐飲、服裝等零工行業，卷的都是不賺錢的行業。

潛台詞就是這些人現在手裡沒錢了，這個時候如果降息，通脹上升會給這類群體帶來更沉重的打擊。

以上統統都正确。

資料來源：wind

但是我卻認為，這都是美聯儲在演戲，沒有擔當的表現；它在曆史上可沒少幹這樣的龌龊事。

我記得2022年3月美聯儲第一次加息之前的半年裡，整個金融市場都認為美國通脹在快速攀升，應該加息。   

但是，美國總統拜登，以及美聯儲主席鮑威爾多次公開場合辯稱通脹是暫時的，并不考慮加息。

其實，就是在故意拖延加息。

為啥？

為的就是讓資本市場過熱，好大撈一筆。

高盛集團借着美聯儲不加息的底牌，看多石油到100美元/桶以上，并且大規模做多石油；巴菲特老爺子也大舉買入石油股。

這最終導緻了，美國遭遇40年一遇的大通脹，CPI一度爆表，高達9.1%；各位自己看上圖，自己品。

2

美聯儲這次故技重施、推遲降息，最終有可能錯過最佳降息時間，并且醞釀新一輪金融市場的大調整。

美國本土先知先覺的資金已經開始動手了。

比如，“木頭姐”已經開始減持英偉達股票；英偉達漲的越多，木頭姐就減持的越多。

比如，巴菲特老爺子在過去的一個季度裡開始減持蘋果股票，減持套現差不多有18.22億美元，合計人民币約130多億元。

更值得注意的是，摩根大通的CEO戴蒙減持自家股票套現1.5億美元，要知道戴蒙持倉近20年都沒動，偏偏這個時候開始減持？   

還有很多很多。。。。。。

資料來源：wind

并且，考慮到美國目前仍然是全球經濟的火車頭，過遲降息不僅将給美國周邊經濟，也将給全球經濟帶來巨大的沖擊。

我來進一步，解釋下邏輯。

美國當下通脹的關鍵在于中低收入人群，被動地把生活成本轉移到了終端薪資、終端服務上了。

就是說美國經濟并沒有真的很火熱，這是個核心觀點。

（見上圖）

一旦中低收入人群放棄内卷，開始躺平；你美聯儲再去降息也白瞎。   

國内的各位都應該有非常非常深刻的切膚之痛，就不展開了。

來看一組美國CPI的資料

（見上圖）

，

美國CPI的重要分項，食品指數上漲了2.6%。

但是把這個資料進一步拆分之後會有新的發現。

比如，外出用餐的食品價格上漲5.1%，更為明顯；相比之下，家庭食品價格上漲較少，同期資料為1.2%。

又比如，肉類、家禽、魚類和蛋類（-0.9%）以及乳制品（-1.1%）的價格都出現下降。

這種差異可能暗示着，餐館和食品服務機構正在将更高的成本（人工、房租）轉嫁給消費者。

菜館子裡的飯菜價格越來越貴時，觸及某一個閥值時，比如是中等收入群體在下館子這一項支出費用的中位數。

意思是，飯店漲價的幅度超過顧客的消費能力。

那麼，極有可能會出現一種現象。

菜館的客流量開始減少。這時，飯館一方面是房租、人工等成本不斷擡升，另一方面是生意越來越難做、進賬越來越少。

怎麼辦？   

飯店幹脆關門大吉！

結果就是，低收入群體可能一夜之間大量“失業”。

這個時候，美聯儲該擔心的恐怕就不是文章一開始介紹的“通脹上升給平民帶來的痛苦”，而應該是“通suo帶來的絕望”。

這個事情（結果），美聯儲當然能夠推演出來。

但是，美聯儲就是要等待，等待金融大鳄吃飽喝足之後，等待麻煩的出現，他們好去做個英雄解決麻煩。

最後，我們應該明白美聯儲為什麼要推遲3月份的降息了，我們根據各方資訊推測美聯儲最快可能會在5月份降息，最遲的話差不多是7月份。

如果你對我們手頭的這些資訊感興趣，如果你想了解金融大鳄的最新動态，如果你也好奇全球在美聯儲降息後會有怎麼樣的機會。

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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: 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