美聯儲：不會繼續加息，也沒準備好降息

美聯儲擔心通脹下降勢頭可能停滞。

當地時間周三（2月21日）公布的美聯儲1月會議紀要顯示，在決定是否降息之前，美聯儲需要看到更多通脹下降的證據，美聯儲官員預計，在目前經濟周期中，利率不會進一步上升，但他們也還沒做好降息的準備。 

會議紀要公布後，标普500指數跌至盤中低點，10年期美債收益率升至4.317%。

1月政策會議結束後，美國勞工部公布的1月通脹資料高于預期，而在過去一年大部分時間裡通脹一直在減速。

會議紀要顯示：“與會者判斷，政策利率可能已達到本輪緊縮周期的峰值，他們普遍認為，在對通脹持續向2%回落有更多信心之前，不宜調低聯邦基金利率目标區間。” 

目前聯邦基金利率目标區間為5.25%-5.50%。 

美聯儲官員還開始考慮放慢縮表速度的可能性。美聯儲每月允許600億美元國債和350億美元抵押貸款支援證券在其資産負債表中自然到期，不再進行再投資。 

會議紀要顯示：“許多與會者建議從下次會議開始深入讨論資産負債表問題，為最終做出放慢縮表速度的決定做指導。” 

美聯儲放慢縮表速度的可能性與降息決定無關。會議紀要顯示，部分官員指出，即使在聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)開始降息後，仍有可能繼續縮表。 

會議紀要的内容和美聯儲主席鮑威爾在1月31日會後新聞釋出會上釋放的信号一緻：美聯儲的下一步行動是降息，但首先需要看到更有力的證據表明通脹正在持續下降。 

投資管理公司Brandywine Global宏觀政策主管保羅·米爾查斯基(Paul Mielczarski)評論說：“我對這份會議紀要的了解是，降息仍會到來，隻是要等到今年晚些時候才會到來。不過，啟動降息的理由仍然相當充分……美聯儲無需等到美國經濟走軟時才降息，他們隻需要看到足夠的證據表明通脹正朝着2%的目标下降。” 

美聯儲沒有從2月13日公布的1月美國消費者價格指數(CPI)中看到這樣的證據，這是美聯儲對于降息保持謹慎立場的原因。1月剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的核心CPI環比上漲0.4%，高于市場預期，同比漲幅為3.9%，和去年12月同比漲幅持平。1月生産者價格指數(PPI)同樣超出預期。 

自今年年初以來，交易員已大幅下調了對美聯儲很快會降息的押注，他們對首次降息時間的預期從之前的3月推遲到了6月。 

在降息問題上，美聯儲官員傾向于采取觀望态度。過去幾年，美國經濟的強勁勢頭和通脹粘性導緻許多專業預測人士的預測失準，美聯儲也不急于下結論。 

會議紀要顯示：“多數與會者指出了過快放松政策立場的風險，同時強調了仔細評估即将公布的資料對于判斷通脹是否能夠持續降至2%的重要性。” 

下一次FOMC會議将3月19至20日召開，2月勞動力市場資料和通脹資料将在會議召開前出爐。 

美聯儲官員在1月份召開的會議上指出，勞動力市場依然強勁，但也出現了一些松動迹象，包括職位空缺數量與失業人數比率下降等。官員們預計通脹将繼續減速，但認為仍有上行風險，通脹前景仍存在不确定性。 

文 | 尼古拉斯·賈辛斯基

編輯 | 郭力群 

版權聲明：

《巴倫周刊》(barronschina)原創文章，未經許可，不得轉載。英文版見2024年2月21日報道“Fed Minutes Suggest No Rate Cuts Until Inflation Moderates Further”。

（本文内容僅供參考，不構成任何形式的投資和金融建議；市場有風險，投資須謹慎。）

#市場分析

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#3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: 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rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}body,.wx-root{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #ededed;--weui-BG-1: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-2: #fff;--weui-BG-3: #f7f7f7;--weui-BG-4: #4c4c4c;--weui-BG-5: #fff;--weui-FG-0: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(0, 0, 0, .9);--weui-FG-1: rgba(0, 0, 0, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: 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rgba(0, 0, 0, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-YELLOW: #ffc300;--weui-GREEN: #91d300;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #95ec69;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1485ee;--weui-PURPLE: #6467f0;--weui-WHITE: #fff;--weui-LINK: #576b95;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #06ae56;--weui-FG: #000;--weui-BG: #fff;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: #fa9d3b;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: #06ae56;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, .1)}.wx-root,body{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: #e6e6e6}.wx-root,body{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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#373737}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: 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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}