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龍年第一個交易日，海外主要股市、大宗普漲，未來展望如何？

龍年第一個交易日，海外主要股市、大宗普漲，未來展望如何？

春節長假還在繼續，不過2月12日周一，全球絕大多數國家已經迎來了龍年的第一個交易日。目前全球主要經濟體中，周一正常交易的主要在歐美等國家，以及大宗商品市場。而亞洲主要經濟體中國、日本、南韓、新加坡等股市均處于休市中。

//  全球股市表現不錯  //

從股市來看，Wind資料顯示，全球主要經濟體中，2月12日已經開盤交易的有10個股指，其中6個上漲，占比為60%，表現不錯。其中歐洲地區多個市場漲勢較好，意大利富時MB指數、德國DAX指數、法國CAC40指數位居前列，漲幅均超過0.5%。而美股則有所分化，道指繼續上漲創曆史新高，但标普500指數和納斯達克指數則微跌。其餘市場股指上漲和下跌幅度不大，總體上，龍年第一個交易日，海外股市表現不差。

龍年第一個交易日，海外主要股市、大宗普漲，未來展望如何？

//  大宗商品普漲  //

龍年首個交易日，除了海外股市表現不錯外，全球主要大宗商品更是漲多跌少。Wind資料顯示，截至2月13日6點，14個大宗品種中，11個實作上漲，占比達78.6%。其中LME錫、LME鋅等5個品種上漲超過1%，而下跌最大的是NYMEX天然氣回落超過5%。其餘品種漲跌在1%以内，波動不大。

龍年第一個交易日，海外主要股市、大宗普漲，未來展望如何？

//  全球三大市場未來投資展望  //

A股方面，國投瑞銀基金總經理王彥傑表示，展望2024，中國面臨較過去一年更好的内外部環境，雖然存在諸多不利因素的擾動，但是外部利率環境友好，全球資金再配置，國内财政發力，企業出海競争力擴大，高端制造業突破，公司治理改善都将為股票市場增添更多的上行動力。站在目前的時點，政策先立後破的基調已然清晰，制造業厚積薄發競争力斐然，乘着全球利率拐點的東風，中國的資本市場有望迎來更加樂觀的2024年。

中歐基金董事長窦玉明表示，過去一年，中國經濟處于波浪式修複過程中，現代化産業體系建設取得重要進展，科技創新實作新的突破。2024年，相信在逆周期政策的助力下，中國經濟有望溫和複蘇。中央經濟工作會議将科技創新和現代化産業體系建設定為2024年具體經濟工作任務的首位。相信在中長周期下，硬科技方向的技術突破将迎來不錯的投資機會。

新年之際，德邦證券CEO武曉春表示，展望2024年，對中國經濟的發展充滿信心。随着各項改革措施的不斷深化，中國經濟将迎來新的增長點。對于資本市場，期待更多利于長期資金入市的政策落地，這不僅能為市場帶來更穩定的資金支援，也将為廣大投資者開拓更多的投資機會。

美股方面，星展銀行投資政策師鄧志堅表示，市場曾一度擔憂，如果美聯儲1月議息會議的基調偏鷹，可能會對美股引發負面情緒。然而，偏鷹基調一如預期地，但負面情緒似乎絲毫不見。年初以來，美股的升幅，似乎主要集中在科技巨頭，尤其是與AI相關的半導體行業。而美股的“七巨頭”微軟、蘋果、亞馬遜、Alphabet、META、英偉達、特斯拉正在經曆命運的轉變。年初至今的升幅出現分歧，尤其是特斯拉和蘋果，分别出現-22.1%和-1.91%的跌幅。

未來面對美國經濟增速放緩、财政支出預算、大選等不确定性，但美股中仍有很多值得中長線持有的優質企業，是以除了增持投資級别債券以分散風險外，應該在美股中配置具有長期增長趨勢的優質成長股。

安信國際認為，綜合美國近期資料，經濟狀态大數上維持強勁，是以利率政策的走向仍然是主要交易邏輯線。在美聯儲正式步入降息周期前，交易環境延續去年情況，整體大盤較為波動，強于預期的經濟資料會促使股債調整，尤其是估值較高的科技巨頭，仍然維持對第一季度市場進入調整期的判斷。

日本股市上，野村東方國際證券認為，近期日本股市持續發力，未來日股市場強勁表現有望持續，但需關注企業2023财年三季度業績略低于預期的風險，這可能會在短期内對股價産生負面影響。建議關注可抵禦日元升值影響、受益于提價和日本資本支出複蘇的行業，如建築、房地産、半導體制造裝置、系統應用和食品等。

交銀國際認為，日本股市在2024年有望延續增長，受持續再通脹推動企業盈利，以及日本正縮小與發達市場盈利差距的結構性變革所驅動。結構層面，未來價值風格相較于成長風格應更值得投資者配置。

（Wind綜合證券時報）

Wind金融終端輸入指令

線上批量下單，輕松多賬戶管理

組合資産穿透管理，實時監控底層持倉

專為機構打造

一站式基金投研、交易、管理平台

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and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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.1)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 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.05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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