暴雷！新能源公認龍頭，利潤大增5700%，市值卻蒸發2500億，沒救了！
最近提出的新質生産力概念，跟2021年提出的碳中和概念有相似之處，隻是多加了一層科技意義。
新質生産力，即經濟發展新動能，包含戰略性新興産業和未來新興産業。
像新能源、新材料、綠色環保、新能源汽車等産業，偏向環保節能方向，屬于戰略性新興産業。元宇宙、腦機接口、人形機器人、量子資訊等行業的科技屬性比較濃厚，屬于未來新興産業。
前兩天我們分析過的晶科能源，就是新能源産業下屬的光伏行業。锂業是新能源汽車的産業鍊上遊，也跟新質生産力關聯密切。
跟光伏業績走高、股價下跌的情況不同，锂業公司的股價一直跌、業績也不太行。
贛鋒锂業前不久釋出了業績預告，2023年淨利潤同比最高下降79.52%，扣非淨利潤最高下降88.47%。用三個字概括，虧麻了。
（圖檔來源：贛鋒锂業2023年業績預告）
公司的市值也從2021年3200億的最高點，跌倒如今的687億，蒸發2500億左右。
其他釋出業績預告的9家锂業公司，淨利潤增速清一色是負的。
除了原材料100%自給的天齊锂業，和采用低成本鹽湖提锂技術的鹽湖股份虧損較少外，大部分廠商的表現都不太樂觀。
就比如江特電機、西藏珠峰，連淨利潤都是負值，公司一年到頭白忙活。
锂鹽公司本質上還是礦産型企業，碳酸锂價格跳水讓整個行業的表現都萎靡不振。
那麼，碳酸锂價格會超跌嗎？這輪碳酸锂周期走完了嗎？
先說一下近兩年碳酸锂的價格走勢。2021年初，碳酸锂價格隻有5萬元/噸。2022年新能源汽車訂單大增，锂電池供不應求，11月碳酸锂價格最高飙升至60萬元/噸。
2023年價格開始回落，2024年1月底已跌至9.75萬元/噸。
锂礦和锂鹽公司本質上還是礦産企業，具備周期屬性。目前為止，碳酸锂也隻經曆過兩輪周期。
第一輪周期，碳酸锂跌破成本價。
那時各礦産公司均希望通過燒錢虧本營運的方式，加快對手的産能出清以搶占市場佔有率。以及公司需要現金流，哪怕虧錢也得一直開工。
第二輪周期，價格來到底部，但未出現明顯複蘇迹象。
随着全球最大礦山格林布什礦宣布減産，澳洲Core工廠宣布停産。
明确傳達出一個信号，這輪碳酸锂周期的結束時間。除了受制于供需關系，還跟頭部企業的政策選擇有關。
2022年60萬元/噸的碳酸锂價格，讓很多锂礦公司賺的盆滿缽滿。敢于停産減産，說明公司一時半會不打算擴大規模并且手上有錢。
是以，上遊锂礦短時間内不會出現破産出清的現象。
雖然锂價來到底部，但短期内很難跌破成本價。第二輪碳酸锂周期何時結束，還得繼續觀望。
行業整體景氣度低，贛鋒锂業的業績表現也不佳。
2019-2022年，公司營收從53.42億增至418.23億，淨利潤從3.58億增至205.04億，翻了57倍。
但在2023年前三季度，卻降收又降利。
實作營收256.82億元，同比減少6.99%；實作淨利潤60.10億元，同比減少59.38%。第四季度還要進行存貨減值計提，情況也不會太樂觀。
公司的盈利能力，也有所下滑。
天齊锂業是國内唯一一家實作锂精礦自給自足的公司，生産成本非常低，利潤是業内所有公司都比不了的。
贛鋒锂業的锂礦自供比例隻有40%，是以盈利能力一直不如天齊。
2023第三季度兩者的差距在不斷擴大，公司的淨利率下降到22.89%，同期天齊锂業的淨利率仍維持在66.98%的高位。
那麼，贛鋒锂業未來還存在其他隐患嗎？
1.現金流緊張，持續經營能力下降
看到天齊锂業在搶占資源這件事上嘗到了甜頭，贛鋒锂業也走上了資源收購之路。
公司在锂輝石、锂雲母、鹽湖鹵水、黏土等多種資源布局，控制資源總量達7910萬
噸LCE（碳酸锂當量），權益資源量4923萬噸LCE，位居國内首位。
但接二連三的收購，讓贛鋒锂業的現金流非常緊張。
2023年前三季度公司投資活動現金流淨額-71億元，經營活動現金流淨額為-13.69億元。
雖然賬上躺着96多億的貨币基金，但公司還有65億的短期借款跟25億一年内到期的流動負債，折算下來手上沒多少錢。
此外，新能源汽車銷量增速放緩。
2023上半年新能源汽車國内銷量為308萬輛，增速下降到37.3%。預計此後碳酸锂價格很難重回到60萬元/噸的高位，公司也難以複制2022年的吸金神話。
2.一體化布局，拉低整體盈利能力
公司實行上下遊一體化布局，業務貫穿上遊锂資源開發、中遊锂鹽深加工及金屬锂冶煉、下遊锂電池制造、回收利用。
為了完成一體化布局，2023年前三季度公司的研發費用達到9.4億，而同期鹽湖股的研發費用為1.6億，最大競争對手天齊锂業的研發費用隻有0.2億。
從産品結構來看，2023上半年公司锂電池産品營收為40.85億，收入占比為22.51%。
高額研發投入生産設計出的锂電池，毛利率還不到20%，拉低了公司整體的盈利能力。
大而全的政策不一定就是最好的，隻做锂礦跟锂化合物的天齊锂業，即使在行業下行周期，依然靠着86.64%的超高毛利率，碾壓全行業。
最後，總結一下。
持續的資源收購和大而全的一體化布局政策，已經明顯拉低了贛鋒锂業的能力和盈利能力。在行業下行周期，公司應該更審慎的進行戰略選擇，而非不計後果的盲目擴張。
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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body{--appmsgExtra-BG: #F7F7F7}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) 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#74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: 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