三根陽線，能改三觀否？

上周A股四連陽，V字反彈，收在了2910點，從最低點2724.16反彈了6.8%。

A股為啥突然雄起？看上去就兩種解釋：

第一種，央行政策的洪荒之力。

央行是系列組合拳：包括降準，支援境外機構開展銀行間市場債券回購業務，支援粵港澳地區居民“跨境理财通”業務，做好經營性物業管理貸款業務，支援房企融資等等。

感覺央行用力的姿勢是非常足了，把箱子裡面有的家當也努力擺出來了。真正大家當的話語權，也不是央行這個層面能完全主導的。是以，也算盡力了。

所有政策中，最重磅的就算是降準。1月24号，新任央行行長潘功勝宣布，将于2月5日降低存款準備金0.5個百分點。所謂存款準備金就是指商業銀行必須按照法定比例，把銀行存款中的一部分資金存放在中央銀行，這部分資金不能用于銀行的日常貸款和投資活動。是以下調存款準備金就相當于給市場釋放了一定流動性。這次存款準備金率從7.5%下調到7.0%，差不多釋放了1萬億左右流動性到市場上。

這個下調，對市場來說，有點“意外”：

其一，這是自從2023年9月以來的首次總量貨币政策，算寒冬的一簇火苗吧。尤其在1月中旬，央行沒有調整中期借貸便利MLF（麻辣粉）和LPR之後，算超出了最近感受的“緊貨币”預期。

其二，比之前力度都大點。2022年4月以來4次全面降準都是0.25%，這次翻倍，搞得有些自媒體又開始造些亂七八糟危言聳聽的詞，比如“大放水”什麼的。這些就略過不聊吧。

第二種，就是一股“神秘力量”。

一周内連續有大量境外資金護盤央企大盤。這個力度，不是之前那個幾十億的“北上資金”可以比拟的。資金來源到底是哪裡，沒有人知道，但明顯是國家隊，而且是絕對主力部隊。護衛的标的也非常清楚。是以這才産生了指數上漲，但更多人虧錢的奇觀。

但無論哪種解釋，大概都隻能說明目前大A有個政策心理下限，而沒法說清楚大A的上限在哪裡。

其實從大家的動作上，我們能看到變化—— 

上周我們一直在追蹤大家的預期和持倉。大約有1.7萬人參與了這幾天的調研。可以看得出，降準是一個重要的節點。降準後大家對于A股走勢預期相對樂觀了一些，但倉位上更謹慎。

降準前（1月22日），認為次日會上漲1%以上人群占比是18.8%，最新（1月26日），占比提升至20.5%。認為會大幅下跌5%以上人群占比收窄，從9.1%收窄至6.0%。持有悲觀情緒的人少了三個百分點。

準備大幅買入的，少了兩個百分點；倉位保持不動的，多了兩個百分點；準備小幅賣出的人；也多了1.3個百分點。

具體地，可以看看下面的投票問題結果對比。

投票問題1：A股走勢預期

投票問題2：倉位動作詳情

是以，三根陽線要不要改三觀呢？仔細琢磨和體會。

這裡我也給出一些重要的專家觀點，供大家了解消化：

張 斌

中國金融四十人論壇（CF40）資深研究員

中國社科院世界經濟與政治研究所副所長

大陸經濟面臨的主要挑戰是總需求不足，表現為物價水準偏低，勞動力市場結構性壓力突出，經濟增速為過去20年中較低水準。總需求不足同時受到私人部門和公共部門支出等因素的影響。解決總需求不足的問題，需要在加大财政政策力度和貨币政策力度的同時，以有力措施幫助房地産市場恢複活力。

張 明‍

中國社會科學院金融研究所副所長

隻要房地産市場調控不松，央行降準預計對房地産市場的影響非常有限，房地産企業仍應做好過冬的準備。去年降息的節奏太慢，每次10個基點，步伐可以更大一些。經過測算，商業銀行體系能夠承受至少100個BP的利差的收縮，是以一次性降50個BP整個成本和風險是可控的。

熊 園

國盛證券首席經濟學家

本次“雙降”短期有助于提振股票市場情緒，中期仍取決于穩增長政策的落地效果。

張 波‍‍‍

58安居客研究院院長

降準的效果還需要通過商業銀行的存貸款循環派生實作，如何結合“三個不低于”以及“房企白名單”制度更好推進房地産風險出清，并保障房地産市場穩定運作，依然需要後續細則落實。

親愛的朋友啊，你今天在想啥呢？—— 

「執筆為劍，

陪你穿越财富峽谷」

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body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both;min-height:1em}td p{margin:0;padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0;padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important;box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important;word-wrap:break-word!important}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}