譯 / 柳下嬰（微信公衆号：王不留）
選自TE20221001，Leaders
The rate shock
利率沖擊
Markets are reeling from higher rates.The world economy is next
股市已遭受加息的沉重打擊，下一個該輪到全球經濟了
If the Fed tightens until something breaks, the first cracking sounds could be in Europe
假如美聯儲的緊縮政策要壓垮什麼，那麼首當其沖的或許是歐洲
[1] The world’s financial markets are going through their most painful adjustment since the global financial crisis. Adapting to the prospect of higher American interest rates, the ten-year Treasury yield briefly hit 4% this week, its highest level since 2010. Global stockmarkets have sold off sharply, and bond portfolios have lost an astonishing 21% this year.
世界金融市場正在經曆自2007-09年全球金融危機以來最為艱難的調整。為适應美國利率上升的前景，10年期美國國債收益率本周一度達到4%，為2010年以來的最高水準。全球股市大幅抛售，債券投資組合今年損失了令人吃驚的21%。
[2] The dollar is crushing all comers. The greenback is up by 5.5% since mid-August on a trade-weighted basis, partly because the Fed is raising rates but also because investors are backing away from risk. Across Asia, governments are intervening to resist the depreciation of their currencies. In Europe Britain has poured the fuel of reckless fiscal policy on the fire, causing it to lose the confidence of investors. And as bond yields surge, the euro zone’s indebted economies are looking their most fragile since the sovereign-debt crisis a decade ago.
美元正在壓垮所有進入市場的人。自8月中旬以來，美元貿易權重匯率上漲了5.5%，部分原因是美聯儲加息，但也因為投資者正在遠離風險。在整個亞洲，各國政府都在進行幹預，以抵制本币貶值。在歐洲，英國将魯莽的财政政策火上澆油，使其失去了投資者的信心。而随着債券收益率的飙升，歐元區債務經濟體看起來正處于自10年前主權債務危機以來最脆弱的時期。
[3] The primary cause of the market chaos is the Federal Reserve's fight with inflation. Because the Fed has lost the first three or four rounds since prices began to surge in 2021, it is now swinging harder. The central bank expects to raise the federal funds rate to nearly 4.5% by the end of the year and higher still in 2023. The outlook for rates is rippling through America’s financial system. The cost of 30-year mortgages is nearly 7%. Junk-bond yields are already over 9%, which has caused the issuance of new debt to dry up. Bankers who underwrote leveraged buy-outs when yields were lower are suddenly finding themselves hundreds of millions of dollars in the red. Pension funds which gorged on opaque private assets in pursuit of higher returns when rates were lower must now tot up their losses as risky investments slump in value.
市場混亂的主要原因是美聯儲的抑制通脹措施。由于自2021年價格開始飙升以來，美聯儲已經輸掉了前三、四輪，現在它搖擺得更厲害了。美聯儲預計将在今年年底前将聯邦基金利率提高到近4.5%，并在2023年更高。利率的前景正在波及美國金融體系。30年期抵押貸款的成本接近7%。垃圾債券的收益率已經超過了9%，這導緻了新債的發行枯竭。在收益率較低時承銷杠杆收購的銀行家們突然發現自己有數億美元的赤字。當利率較低時，養老基金為了追求更高的回報而大量購買不透明的私人資産，現在必須随着風險投資價值的下滑而增加損失。
[4] Yet it is outside America where the financial effects of the Fed’s monetary tightening have been most severe. The surging dollar is painful for energy importers that were already grappling with higher costs. India, Thailand and Singapore have intervened in financial markets to support their currencies. Emerging-market currency reserves have fallen by over $200bn in the past year, according to JPMorgan Chase, a bank—the fastest fall in two decades.
然而，美聯儲收緊貨币政策的金融影響最嚴重的是美國以外的國家。對于已經在努力應對成本上漲的能源進口商來說，美元飙升是痛苦的。印度、泰國和新加坡紛紛幹預金融市場以支撐本國貨币。據摩根大通銀行（JPMorgan Chase）的資料，新興市場國家的外匯存底在過去一年中減少了2000億美元——這是20年來下降最快的一次。
[5] Advanced economies can usually withstand dollar strength. Today, if anything, they are showing greater signs of immediate stress. Some of the worst-performing currencies in 2022 are from the rich world. Sweden raised rates by a full percentage point on September 20th and still saw its currency fall against the dollar. In Britain surging yields on government debt have failed to attract much foreign capital. The Bank of Korea is lending currency reserves to the national pension fund so that it buys fewer dollars in the open market. In Japan the government has intervened to buy yen for the first time this century, despite the apparently ironclad determination of the central bank to keep interest rates low.
發達經濟體通常能夠承受美元走強。今天，如果有的話，他們正在顯示出承受緊迫壓力的突出迹象。2022年一些表現最差的貨币來自發達國家。瑞典在9月20日将利率提高了整整一個百分點，但其貨币兌美元匯率仍然下跌。在英國，政府債務收益率飙升，未能吸引大量外國資本。南韓央行（Bank of Korea）将外匯存底借給南韓國家養老基金，以減少其在公開市場上購買美元的數量。在日本，政府本世紀第一次幹預購買日元，盡管日本央行顯然下定了維持低利率的堅定決心。
[6] Part of the explanation for the pressure on advanced-economy currencies is that many central banks have hitherto failed to keep pace with the Fed's tightening—but with good reason, because their economies are weaker. The energy crisis is about to plunge Europe into recession.
發達經濟體貨币面臨壓力的部分原因是，許多央行迄今未能跟上美聯儲緊縮的步伐——但這是有充分理由的，因為它們的經濟較弱。能源危機即将使歐洲陷入衰退。
[7] A strong dollar, in effect, exports America's domestic inflation problem to weaker economies. They can support their currencies by raising rates in line with the Fed, but only at the cost of even lower growth. Britain has the worst of both worlds. Markets now expect the Bank of England to set the highest rates of any big rich economy next year but sterling has slumped all the same. If the bank follows through with rate rises, the housing market could collapse.