Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Friday Special. I’m Stephanie Li.
Soybeans, accounting for the highest proportion of China's food imports, were mentioned eight times in China's No.1 central document of 2023 issued on Monday, more than any other food crop mentioned.
The document, released by China's central authorities at the start of each year, is a key indicator of policy priorities for the year ahead. In this annual rural policy blueprint, the State Council, China’s cabinet, reiterated a recently stated goal to boost grain production capacity by 50 million tons, from current production of more than 650 million tons, state news agency Xinhua reported.
“The primary task of a strong agricultural country is to ensure national food security,” agriculture minister Tang Renjian said at a news conference on Tuesday on the policy blueprint. His comments referred to the central government’s stated plan to build a “strong agricultural country” to support China’s development.
This year’s statement also said the government will boost subsidies for corn and soybean producers, pilot test soybean full cost insurance and planting income insurance, and promote substitutes to soybean meal as animal feed.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 146.87 million tons of grains in 2022, the bulk of which consisted of soybeans at an impressive 91.08 million tons. In 2022, China spent a total of $82.65 billion on imported grain, of which $61.24 billion was spent on soybeans.
In 2022, the international grain market was turbulent as witnessed by the sharp fluctuation in grain prices. Under the circumstances, though China's rations are under no immediate threat, the strategic security of soybeans, which is heavily dependent on overseas markets, has become increasingly prominent.
China is facing severe external risks and challenges amid a complicated and ever-changing international situation. Domestic production and consumption will be tightly balanced for a long time, so China must always have a sense of crisis about its grain security, which has improved markedly.
Beijing has long placed an emphasis on national security, including in terms of food and seeds. The global price turbulence and looming food crisis stemming from the Ukraine conflict have served as further reminders to China that it should reduce its reliance on foreign markets for key crops and commodities.
China listed soybean expansion as "a major political task to be accomplished" in 2022. And last year’s soybean output and cropland area reached record highs, while Beijing hopes to raise domestic soybean output by 40% to 23 million tons by 2025.
Attaining larger soybean yields while reducing China's dependency on external sources has been high on the government's agenda as it seeks to ensure there is enough food for 1.4 billion people.
The domestic output of soybeans - a major oilseed and animal feed - reached 20.28 million tons in 2022, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. It was the first time the country produced more than 20 million tons.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MOA) aims to expand growing areas for soybean and oil crops by at least 660,000 hectares this year, and raise the self-sufficiency rate for cooking oil production by 1 percentage point.
Soybean cropland amounted to 10.2 million hectares (25.2 million acres) in 2022, an increase of about 21% from 2021, the largest amount of land used for soybean production since 1958. Rapeseed output edged up 1.1% to 36.53 million tons last year.
After the founding of the People's Republic of China, the area planted with soybeans peaked at 12.73 million hectares in 1957. Cultivation of the crop started contracting in the 1990s after it was edged out by more lucrative cash crops such as corn.
China used to be the world's largest producer of soybeans until the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-45), but now buys up to 80% of its needs on the global market.
This increase in domestic output coincided with a decline in soybean imports last year, and the import total is expected to keep falling in the coming years. According to data released by China customs last month, soybean imports declined by 8.1%, year on year, during the first 11 months of 2022.
China's soybean self-sufficiency rate is estimated to have reached 18.5% in 2022, which would mark a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points, according to the MOA. The increased supply of the crop, coupled with a national campaign to encourage frugality in the catering sector, has resulted in a 1.6 percentage point increase in the self-sufficiency rate of China's overall cooking oil production.
China’s Soybean Revitalization Scheme was introduced with the release of the 2019 No. 1 central document, amid a backdrop of the country’s heavy reliance on imports of the legume.
The sense of urgency to increase domestic soybean production ramped up in late 2021 after the domestic yield shrank by 16.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The country's agricultural ministry told local governments in late 2021 that enlarging soybean and oil crop planting was "a major political task" to be completed in 2022. Last year, China launched initiatives to improve the capacity of soybean production, focusing on crop rotations. The project has got off to a "good start", said Pan Wenbo, director of the Planting Management Department under the MOA.
"But in general, there is still a large gap between China's soybean production and demand," said Pan, who added that China will continue to increase the plantation of soybean and other oilseed crops in 2023.
And soybean imports appear to have already hit their peak level and will gradually decline through 2030 as Beijing continues its effort to double down on food security, according to a new report, while most of those imports comprised genetically modified (GMO) soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina, with Brazil being the largest supplier to China.
Brazil has been increasingly taking some of the market share of Chinese exports from the US since the US-China trade tension began in 2018, when the share of Brazilian soybean exports to China exceeded 75% while the US market share plunged to 19%, according a report by Rabobank, a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company.
China is the world's largest soybean importer, accounting for more than 60% of global trade. In 2022, China imported an estimated 94-95 million tons of soybeans, the report said.
China's annual soybean consumption in recent years has been around 110 million tons. More than 85% of that is used for crushing and consumption to meet the needs of animal feed and oil. Less than 15% is used for food consumption.
"Soymeal is the key feed protein source in China, accounting for 70% of volume as Chinese livestock farmers believed high-protein diets could ensure animal health and accelerate growth," the report said.
However, China introduced the concept of low-protein feed formula in 2018, in the face of uncertainties surrounding external supplies, and the agriculture ministry continued to issue further guidelines to reduce soybean meal use in the last couple of years.
The Rabobank report said China's soybean imports peaked in 2020, and that the inclusion rate of soybean meal in feed rations is projected to drop from 15.3% in 2021 to 13.5% in 2025, and then to 12% by 2030.
"A slowdown and eventual reduction in China's soybean imports will reshape global trade flows," the report said.
While China will remain the largest importer, additional growth will shift from China to other regions and mainly be driven by emerging economies in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.
Back in domestic focus, in order to help raise soybean output, the 2023 document called for the continued promotion of intercropping soybeans with corn and developing saline land for soybeans.
China will increase its efforts to boost output of soybeans and edible oils, “vigorously” promote rapeseed production on fallow land during winter months, as well as lesser known oilseed crops such as camellia, according to the document, while also supporting the development of rotational planting of grain and soybean in the northeast and northern Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.
Beijing also plans to speed up the pace of commercialization of biotech corn and soybeans, according to the document, which should eventually help raise yields. Though no specific time frame was provided for the launch of genetically modified corn and soybeans, many market observers expect a launch this year.
China’s reliance on overseas producers has also directly exposed its soybean farmers to fierce pricing competition from imported GMO soybeans. Farmers are not only faced with the pressure of rising cultivation costs, but also have to compete with low-cost, high-yield imports to find a market for locally produced soybeans.
Foreign soybeans, especially those sourced from the US, are a high-yielding GMO variety, combined with low land costs, and large-scale industrial farming. The price of American soybeans flooding the market through Hong Kong is far lower than the market price of soybeans locally produced in Heilongjiang.
As farmers are most concerned about the stability of costs and income, this year’s No.1 document pledged to continue to raise subsidy level for soybean producers and implement the pilot scheme of two types of agricultural insurance.
2月13日《中共中央 國務院關于做好2023年全面推進鄉村振興重點工作的意見》釋出，這是21世紀以來第20個指導“三農”工作的中央一号檔案。糧食安全是“國之大者”，也是中央一号檔案的關注重點。
全文共九個部分，其中提到，抓緊抓好糧食和重要農産品穩産保供，全力抓好糧食生産。確定全國糧食産量保持在1.3萬億斤以上，各省（自治區、直轄市）都要穩住面積、主攻單産、力争多增産。
從中央一号檔案來看，今年大陸糧食生産目标任務重點是“兩穩兩擴兩提”，即穩面積、穩産量，擴大豆、擴油料，提單産、提自給率。中央農村工作上司小組辦公室主任、農業農村部部長唐仁健解讀檔案時表示，保障糧食和重要農産品穩定安全供給，是建設農業強國的頭等大事。“縱觀世界強國發展史，一個國家要真正強大，必須有強大農業作支撐，在糧食和重要農産品供給、關鍵核心技術和産業鍊供應鍊等方面不受制于人。建設農業強國既是現代化強國的應有之義，也是現代化強國的重要支撐。”
唐仁健指出，大陸糧食産量連續8年穩定在1.3萬億斤以上，特别是去年克服疫情災情、國際糧價劇烈波動和農資價格高企等多重不利因素，實作豐收增産，為穩經濟大盤提供了有力支撐。目前和今後一個時期，穩産保供形勢複雜嚴峻，壓力也越來越大。
在糧食安全體系中，牢牢端穩“油瓶子”是重要組成部分。今年在2023年的一号檔案裡，大豆成為高頻關鍵詞，一共被提及8次之多。自2004年開始，至今已有13份中央一号檔案關注大豆生産，特别是自2019年中央一号檔案提出實施大豆振興計劃以來，檔案已經連續第四年聚焦大豆的種植推廣。
具體來看，今年的中央一号檔案提出，加力擴種大豆油料。深入推進大豆和油料産能提升工程。紮實推進大豆玉米帶狀複合種植，支援東北、黃淮海地區開展糧豆輪作，穩步開發利用鹽堿地種植大豆。完善玉米大豆生産者補貼，實施好大豆完全成本保險和種植收入保險試點。深入實施種業振興行動。加快培育高産高油大豆、短生育期油菜、耐鹽堿作物等新品種。加快玉米大豆生物育種産業化步伐，有序擴大試點範圍，規範種植管理。統籌油菜綜合性扶持措施，推行稻油輪作，大力開發利用冬閑田種植油菜。支援木本油料發展，實施加快油茶産業發展三年行動，落實油茶擴種和低産低效林改造任務。深入實施飼用豆粕減量替代行動。
在大陸，由于大豆長期産不足需，對外依存度高，進口已經成為常态。提出“擴種大豆油料”的背後，正是大陸油脂油料自給率偏低的現狀。大陸油料作物增長緩慢，遠低于谷物和糧食作物。2000年至2021年大陸主要油料作物（大豆，花生，葵花籽，油菜籽）收獲面積從2289萬公頃下降至2084萬公頃。
不僅如此，國産大豆的出油率低于國外的轉基因大豆，此外主産區黑龍江的大豆銷往沿海的運輸成本偏高，國産大豆在壓榨方面的競争力要低于進口大豆，國産大豆主要用于高蛋白食品豆。
從大陸的進口糧食品種結構來看，以大豆為主，占到了總進口量的65%左右，國内大豆消費的進口依存度更是超過了85%。在進口來源中，巴西、美國和阿根廷是大陸進口大豆的三大主要進口來源國，其中，從巴西和美國兩國進口的大豆比重常年保持在85%以上，進口集中度高，在複雜多變的國際環境中風險上升。
目前大陸是世界上最大的大豆進口國。近些年進口量常年保持在8500萬噸左右。海關總署公布資料顯示，中國2022年1至12月大豆進口9109萬噸，同比減少544萬噸，減幅5.6%。相比國内2022年2029萬噸的大豆産量，進口大豆數量遙遙領先。
從國内主糧作物來看，大陸稻谷長期保持完全自給，而小麥的自給率也達到了95%以上，玉米雖然進口量也比較大，但自給率基本能穩定在95%以上甚至更高，而大豆的自給率僅在15%左右，在所有的進口大豆中，80%又被壓榨為豆粕後用做養豬、養雞等的蛋白質飼料。
從國内大豆消費來看，随着居民消費水準提高，對肉蛋奶的需求不斷增長，近些年大陸的大豆消費均保持在1.1億噸以上。其中，食用消費量大約在1500萬噸，壓榨消費大約在9500萬噸。在中國的植物油消費中，豆油占50%，其次分别是棕榈油、菜油、花生油、棉油、葵花子油、玉米胚芽油等。經過産業格局的變遷，多年來中國大豆市場已形成食用和飼料兩個相對獨立的市場，國産非轉基因大豆主要用作食品、加工豆制品和大豆蛋白，進口轉基因大豆主要用于滿足國内植物油和蛋白粕需求，20%加工成油脂，80%加工成豆粕。由于大陸屬于蛋白質資源比較稀缺的國家，大豆不僅是油料作物重要的品種，豆粕也是雞、豬、奶牛、肉牛等動物飼養的主要蛋白質來源。适當降低進口依賴度，提升國内自給率，有利于保證油料供應。
從豆粕消費的實際情況來看，根據Mysteel統計的資料，2022年大陸豆粕總消費量7094萬噸，較2021年下降230萬噸，2021年較2020年下降85萬噸。大陸飼料中豆粕消費總量連續兩年下降，這其中很大一部分原因歸功于飼用豆粕減量替代行動的實施。
當然，這并不是終點，根據農業農村部測算資料，如果推行得力，最終可減少2300萬噸的豆粕使用量，折合大豆量3000萬噸。是以，深入實施飼用豆粕減量替代行動，将會對大陸的糧食安全帶來重大影響。
2019年，農業農村部重新開機大豆振興計劃，确定了“到2020年，全國大豆種植面積力争達到1.4億畝”的目标。随後，2020年、2021年，農業農村部繼續實施大豆振興計劃，并再次确認了這一目标。大豆播種面積2019年1.40億畝、2020年1.48億畝，同比增幅分别為10.9％、5.9%。
根據國家統計局1月18日資料，大豆油料擴種成效明顯。大豆面積1.54億畝，比上年增加2743萬畝，是1958年以來最高的年份。産量2028萬噸，增加389萬噸。油菜面積達到1.09億畝，增加近400萬畝，油料作物總産量3653萬噸，比上年增長1.1%。因供給增加和消費節約，食用植物油自給率提高1.6個百分點。
大豆屬于土地密集型農産品，産量相對較低，特别是國内種植的非轉基因大豆，産量更低。和美國、巴西等國家的轉基因大豆相比，其平均單産大約3190公斤/公頃，而2022年，國内大豆單産僅為1980公斤/公頃。是以，從單産上來講， 國産大豆仍有較大的提升空間。據估算如果國産大豆單産提高20%，按照2022年1.54億畝計算，産量可在2022年創紀錄的2029萬噸的基礎上，再增加500萬噸。
提高單産的出路之一是轉基因作物，商業化種植必須具備兩大條件，獲得基因安全證書和品種審定。國際和國内對轉基因作物的推廣種植存在較大争議，到2022年6月大陸出台了《國家級轉基因大豆品種審定标準（試行）》、《國家級轉基因玉米品種審定标準（試行）》，為轉基因大豆品種從研發到商業化種植掃除了障礙。
當然，這并不意味着豆農就可以馬上種植轉基因大豆，在一号檔案中也明确指出，要有序擴大試點範圍，規範種植管理。說明轉基因大豆的商業化種植是一個逐漸擴大的過程，同時，在種植過程中将會受到嚴格監管。
2022年，是大陸實施大豆和油料提升工程的第一年并取得了不錯的開端，播種面積較上年度增加了1843公頃，産量增加了389萬噸達到了創紀錄的2029萬噸。成績的取得主要得益于政策的引導，特别是種植者補貼向大豆傾斜以及玉米帶狀複合種植等一系列政策“組合拳”的推出。
但不可否認，在擴大豆實施工程的第一年，也遇到了不少問題。例如，盡管國産大豆獲得了豐産，但豐産并不“豐收”，影響豆農種植大豆的積極性。究其原因，是因為國産大豆是非轉基因大豆，無論是蛋白含量和價格上，大多數時候和進口大豆均沒有競争優勢，這也導緻國産大豆除了食用，很難進入壓榨領域，而進口大豆80%用于壓榨領域。
目前存在的最大問題是在滿足食用需求之後，擴種後多餘的産量如何進入壓榨領域，同時在實作豐産的同時讓豆農獲得“豐收”。加快大豆生物育種産業步伐可以解決多餘産量進入壓榨領域的問題。而讓豆農豐産又“豐收”，就得靠生産者補貼和大豆完全成本保險和種植收入保險的保駕護航。同時也應看到，農民最關心的種植成本及收入穩定，在一号檔案中，明确提出要繼續完善大豆生産者補貼并實施好兩種保險的試點運作。今年或将繼續提升大豆生産者補貼水準，政策直指核心，消除了農民種植大豆的後顧之憂。
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