Review of Putin's visit to China: old friends, new environment, and signals from the joint statement

"Dear President Putin, my old friend, welcome to China for a state visit." President Xi Jinping said this during talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 16.

At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, Putin paid a state visit to China on May 16-17. This is Putin's 23rd visit to China or to attend international activities. Putin's visit comes less than 10 days before Putin officially begins his fifth presidential term.

In March last year, President Xi Jinping made Russia the first stop of his new term of foreign travel. Putin's appointment of China as the first foreign country to be visited in the new term reflects the high degree of mutual trust and close interaction between the two heads of state. It is worth mentioning that this is also the first time that Putin has made China his first visit after the start of a new presidential term (editor's note: the first countries visited in the previous four terms were Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Belarus and Austria).

"It was the unprecedented high level of partnership between the two countries that made me decide to choose China as the first country I visited after officially becoming President of the Russian Federation." On the eve of the trip, Putin said this in an interview with Xinhua News Agency.

This year marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia. On May 16, the two heads of state jointly signed and issued the Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era on the Occasion of the 75th Anniversary of the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Two Countries (hereinafter referred to as the "China-Russia Joint Statement"). The 10,000-word joint statement covers the positioning and development of the current China-Russia relationship, practical cooperation in various fields, international cooperation, and the Ukraine crisis.

It is worth noting that not long before Putin's visit, President Xi Jinping had just concluded his visit to three European countries and had an in-depth exchange of views with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the Ukraine crisis. Under today's increasingly complex international political and economic landscape, major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics is advancing in an all-round way, and China-Russia and China-EU relations have also undergone subtle developments and changes in the latest round of interaction.

The Sino-Russian joint statement stressed the affirmation of China's principled position and series of initiatives on the issue of promoting peace talks on the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war. Obviously, this is an elaboration of the common position of China and Russia. Feng Shaolei, director of the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that this affirmation not only includes the opposition to nuclear war and the inadmissibility of nuclear war in the Sino-German summit; Logically, it should also be included in the proposal of the Chinese and French leaders for a truce and ceasefire at the Paris Olympics. French President Emmanuel Macron is a Western leader who has both made a high-profile claim to send ground troops to Ukraine, but has earlier advocated a political solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Chinese side and French politicians jointly proposed the Olympic truce, which is a strong support for the proposal to stop the war and promote peace.

For Putin, the current Sino-Russian relations have an irreplaceable priority

During Putin's visit to China, the Chinese side greeted him with high-level courtesy: a grand welcome ceremony, a small-scale meeting between the two heads of state, and co-chairing large-scale talks, and the agenda was even scheduled to the evening of May 16, when the two heads of state walked and talked in Zhongnanhai to have in-depth exchanges on the current international situation and the Ukraine crisis.

The importance that the Russian side attaches to this visit to China can be seen from the heavyweight government and enterprise delegation that accompanied Putin on his visit to China. Among the government officials accompanying him were the first deputy prime minister and five deputy prime ministers in the cabinet of the new Russian government, which also means that more than half of the deputy prime ministers are accompanying the visit to China (there are 10 deputy prime ministers in the new government). At the same time, it also includes six ministerial-level officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and new Defense Minister Belousov, as well as Shoigu, who was appointed as the new secretary of the National Security Council, and Ushakov, assistant to the Russian president for international affairs.

Not only that, a luxury trade delegation composed of heavyweights from the Russian financial and business circles also participated in the visit. Among them are Sberbank CEO Gelman Gref, Russian Al tycoon Oleg Deripaska, CEO of VTB Andrei Kostin, Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, Chairman of Novatek Leonid Mikhelson and others.

"Today's Sino-Russian relations are irreplaceable and of great importance and priority to Putin...... If you look at the live footage of the large-scale talks between China and Russia, you will find that the main table of the meeting cannot sit (all the Russian officials who came to China), and there are two rows of tables in the back, which is unprecedented. Zhao Long, a researcher at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told The Paper that this also shows that the visit and talks are very substantive, which can not only allow China and Russia to have direct dialogue in various fields (responsible persons), but also emphasize the further implementation of some cooperation plans promoted by the diplomacy of the head of state.

On May 16, the heads of state of China and Russia presided over a large-scale meeting. The picture shows the Russian delegates attending the meeting, and it can be seen that two more rows of seats have been added behind the main table. CCTV News screenshot

During the wide-ranging talks, the Chinese and Russian heads of state listened to the reports of the chairmen of the cooperation committees between the two governments on the situation of cooperation in the fields of investment, energy, economy and trade, Northeast and Far East, people-to-people and cultural relations, and international cooperation, expressed satisfaction with the progress made, and affirmed the proposals for future cooperation.

The reason why the Russian side attaches so much importance to this visit to China is also inseparable from the current international situation facing the country. At present, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its third year, and tensions between Russia and the United States and Europe continue to escalate due to the position of Western countries in favor of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the United States, the European Union, Canada, Australia, Japan and other countries have announced a number of sanctions against Russia. In particular, Europe has imposed 13 rounds of sanctions on Russia, covering key areas such as energy, finance, and transportation.

In such an international environment, Russia's recent personnel adjustments actually reflect the importance it attaches to domestic economic development. A number of experts told The Paper that in the list of the new Russian government announced on May 12, Belousov, who has an economic background, serves as the new defense minister or is preparing for the prolongation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, promoting the transformation of the Russian economy to a wartime state, focusing on the matching and coordination of the defense industry and the country's social and economic development.

Putin did not shy away from talking about the international environment in which Russia lives, and he mentioned in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that "they (Western countries, etc.) have imposed nearly 16,000 unilateral and illegal sanctions on the mainland."

The trade structure between China and Russia needs to be optimized, and it needs to adapt to the international political and economic pattern

As a matter of fact, in the past two years, Sino-Russian economic and trade relations have indeed achieved relatively rapid growth. In 2023, bilateral trade reached a record $240.1 billion, and China has been Russia's largest trading partner for 14 consecutive years. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, from January to April this year, the trade volume between China and Russia was 76.581 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. In addition, the proportion of bilateral trade settled in local currency has increased to 92 per cent.

Specific to import and export categories, according to Russia's Komsomolskaya Pravda, last year, Russia exported crude oil, natural gas, coal, copper, timber and seafood to China; Russia's main imports from China include automobiles and their parts, machinery and equipment, smart phones, computers, clothing and footwear.

In connection with Putin's visit to China, Liu Bin, Director General of the Department of Eurasian Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that in the next step, the two sides will continue to promote cooperation in traditional fields such as economy and trade, energy, and agriculture in accordance with the consensus of the two heads of state, and further explore new growth points for cooperation in artificial intelligence, high and new technologies, and basic research, give full play to complementary advantages, and deepen the integration of interests.

"In the past, we talked about expanding the scale of bilateral trade between China and Russia, but now we focus on optimizing the structure." Zhao Long said that at present, the trade volume between China and Russia has reached a certain scale, and the key is how to further improve the quality of bilateral economic and trade cooperation. This requires finding out the pain points and difficulties of the current cooperation between the two sides, and better adapting to the new international economic, trade, financial and political landscape.

In the statement of the Chinese and Russian heads of state on economic and trade relations, the need to optimize the structure of cooperation was also revealed, and the key areas that need to be paid attention to were also specified. Xi Jinping and Putin jointly met with reporters and said that the two sides "adhere to win-win cooperation as the driving force to build a new pattern of mutual benefit between China and Russia", and particularly emphasized that "it is necessary to further optimize the cooperation structure, consolidate the good momentum of cooperation in traditional fields such as economy and trade, support the construction of a network of basic scientific research platforms, continue to release the potential of cooperation in frontier fields, strengthen cooperation in ports and transportation and logistics, and maintain the stability of global industrial and supply chains." ”

The Sino-Russian Joint Statement also specifically states that the two sides agreed to "increase the share of local currencies in bilateral trade, financing and other economic activities." improve the financial infrastructure of the two countries and smooth the settlement channels for business entities between the two countries".

After concluding his trip to Beijing, Putin also went to Harbin on 17 May to attend the opening ceremony of the 8th China-Russia Expo and the opening ceremony of the 4th China-Russia Forum on Local Cooperation. In Putin's view, Harbin is "a model of Russian Chinese intermingling."

China-Russia and China-EU relations have moved forward in interaction

It is worth noting that shortly before Putin's visit to China, President Xi Jinping also successfully completed his visit to France, Serbia and Hungary from May 5 to May 10, which promoted the development of China-EU relations on the basis of stability.

During the visit, the Ukraine issue was also the focus of discussions between China and the European side, and the Chinese leaders reaffirmed China's fair position on this issue, and the European side also expressed the hope that China will continue to play a constructive role in resolving the Ukraine crisis. It goes without saying that the European side will definitely pay special attention to Putin's visit to China. "The problem is that Europe has not properly understood the essence of Sino-Russian relations," Zhao said. In the current geopolitical environment, it is easy to have a 'Cold War' mentality that pits China-Russia relations and China-EU relations. ”

In the joint statement, China and Russia pointed out that the current Sino-Russian relations go beyond the model of military and political alliance during the Cold War and are non-aligned, non-confrontational, and non-aimed at any third party. The two sides stressed that "the development of the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era conforms to the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples, is not an expedient measure, is not affected by one momentary event, and has a strong endogenous driving force and independent value." ”

In an interview with Xinhua News Agency before his trip, Putin said that we hope to resolve the conflict comprehensively, sustainably and justly through peaceful means. We are open to dialogue on Ukraine, but these negotiations must take into account the interests of all countries involved in this conflict, including ours.

As of May, Li Hui, the Chinese government's special representative for Eurasian affairs, had launched three rounds of shuttle diplomacy on a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. The Sino-Russian joint statement pointed out that Russia positively evaluates China's objective and fair position on the Ukraine issue, agrees with the view that the crisis must be resolved on the basis of full and complete compliance with the UN Charter, and welcomes China's constructive role in resolving the Ukraine crisis through political and diplomatic means.

During his previous visit to France, President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron jointly met with reporters at the Elysee Palace on May 6. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a responsible major country, China is ready to work with France to take the Paris Olympics as an opportunity to advocate a global ceasefire and cessation of hostilities during the Games. Macron also thanked Xi Jinping for his support of the initiative.

Talking about the prospects for a political settlement of the Ukraine issue, Zhao Long analyzed that although communication at the head of state level helps to build consensus and reduce misunderstandings, from a practical point of view, although the parties have said that they can negotiate, they have set the premise for peace talks that are unacceptable to the other side, and it is still difficult to truly resume substantive negotiations between the parties directly involved in the conflict.

On May 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed a different view on the Olympic ceasefire in an interview with AFP, saying that it would only help Russia take the opportunity to transfer troops and equipment into Ukrainian territory. Focusing on the Paris Olympics in more than two months, Feng Shaolei said, "Although the realization of a temporary truce during the Olympic Games requires the coordination of all parties, the Russian side generally speaks highly of China's expression of persuasion and peace efforts, and people still have expectations for the opportunity of a truce in a complex situation." ”