美国关税激增4x,FF暴涨近40倍,贾跃亭成最大赢家?

Chief Business Review

2024-05-18 20:03Posted on the official account of Shanghai Chief Business Review

As the saying goes, a tree attracts the wind, and this sentence is not false at all.

Last year, China's new energy vehicles surged by 77.6% year-on-year, becoming a new growth pole in the global auto market.

Adhering to the principle of suppression, the U.S. government announced on the 14th that it will impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and other products, and China's electric vehicle tariffs will be increased by 100% from the original 25%, superimposed by the United States on the 2.5% basic tariff on electric vehicles, and the final tax rate will reach 102.5%, far exceeding the international average tariff level.

At a time when automobile people at home and abroad are angrily accusing the United States of engaging in trade protectionism, Jia Yueting is not happy.

Recently, Faraday Future (FF) stock price has skyrocketed, and the stock price has soared nearly 40 times in just one week. As of press time, FF rose 134.04% to close at $1.65, successfully breaking through the $1 delisting warning line, and the total market value climbed to $70.41 million.

As the only Chinese electric vehicle concept stock developed in the United States, FF is likely to be unaffected by this ban, so there is huge potential for mergers and acquisitions. Jia Yueting also said that Faraday Future has many unique values in becoming a "bridge between the Chinese and US automotive industries", which can help Chinese car companies and supply chains quickly enter the US market.

In addition to protecting domestic trams and suppressing Chinese trams, are there other considerations behind the US tax increases? What is the impact of the sharp increase in tariffs on the mainland electric vehicle industry?

What is the US afraid of increasing tariffs?

In addition to increasing tariffs on electric vehicles by four times, the United States has also imposed higher tariffs on upstream and downstream industries related to electric vehicles, such as steel, aluminum, and lithium batteries. Specifically, tariffs on lithium batteries and their components for electric vehicles will be increased from 7.5% to 25%, steel and aluminum will be increased from 0-7.5% to 25%, and tariffs on power batteries and their materials will also be increased from 7.5% to 25%.

In addition, tariffs on computer chips, medical supplies, critical minerals, semiconductors, harbour cranes and personal protective equipment have also been increased, with tariffs on semiconductors and solar cells rising from 25% to 50%, port cranes from 0% to 25%, and medical products from 0% to 50%.

Recently, US and Western politicians have frequently hyped up the argument of China's new energy "overcapacity" on the international stage, accusing China of dumping green products such as new energy vehicles overseas at low prices. They are trying to curb the momentum of China's new energy vehicles and promote unilateralism and trade protectionism by creating this rhetoric.

Of course, there are also some political factors involved.

At this critical moment in the U.S. election, U.S. President Joe Biden is facing the challenge of re-election and age in the face of re-election challenges and age factors, and he urgently needs to show his political achievements to win votes, and choosing to impose high tariffs on China has become one of his strategies to seek to overtake the votes.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has taken a firm stance on the irrational practices of the United States.

A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Commerce pointed out that the US abused the Section 301 tariff review procedure to further increase the Section 301 tariffs imposed on some Chinese products out of domestic political considerations, which is a typical political manipulation. The US should immediately correct its wrong approach and lift the additional tariffs imposed on China. China will take resolute measures to defend its rights and interests.

Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said: "The United States has imposed tariffs on China's new energy vehicles and electric vehicles, which is a typical trade protectionism. Trade protectionism can only hurt the industry and enterprises, and it is very detrimental to the healthy development of the global automotive industry and the transition to electrification. ”

And that's exactly what happened. In the past, the United States had implemented "double anti-dumping" measures against China's stainless steel products, trying to maintain its monopoly position with trade protection, but ignored the development of technology and the improvement of hard power, which eventually led to the acquisition of American steel companies that once provided steel for the Empire State Building in New York to Japanese companies. Now that the United States is doing the same thing, many experts have pointed out that the US steel industry today may be the US automobile industry tomorrow.

What are the implications for China?

As for the impact of the new tariff policy on Chinese electric vehicle companies, in fact, its impact is limited. First, due to the 27.5% tariff threshold previously set by the U.S. and policy uncertainty, the number of NEVs exported by Chinese automakers to the U.S. has been low.

According to the data of the China Passenger Car Association, in 2023, China will export 18,600 new energy passenger vehicles to the United States, accounting for only 0.4%. According to Chinese customs data, in the first quarter of 2024, China's new energy passenger vehicle exports to the United States will shrink to only 2,051 units.

On the other hand, Chinese electric vehicle companies such as BYD and Geely have turned to Mexico to build factories, and if the cars produced by local factories meet the standards of the US-Canada-Mexico agreement, they will be able to bypass the high tariffs of the United States and enter the US market with zero tariffs.

Chinese trams are not selling well in the United States, so why is the United States blocking?

In fact, the United States is preparing for a rainy day. Chinese electric vehicles are extremely competitive in price, and American electric cars simply can't fight. According to the International Energy Agency, many models in China are priced for less than 100,000 yuan (US$15,000). And the cheapest electric cars in the United States, such as the Chevrolet Bolt, also cost about 210,000 yuan ($30,000), twice as much as Chinese electric cars.

"Good and cheap" trams, consumers naturally favor, can the United States not panic? However, the impact of the US tariffs on China's electric vehicle industry will be very limited, but the impact on the US electric vehicle industry will not be small.

At present, the United States still cannot get rid of the import of new energy products from China. According to customs statistics, from 2020 to 2024, the United States has become the largest destination for China's lithium-ion battery exports for four consecutive years. For example, Tesla's main supplier of lithium-ion batteries is CATL.

After the lithium battery tax rate is raised, American companies will also face pressure to increase costs. At the same time, U.S. consumers are having to buy more expensive, gas-guzzling, and outdated models.

Not only does it harm itself, but it also has a negative impact on the global economy. In the context of increasing globalization, any unilateral trade restriction could trigger a series of ripple effects. For example, trade protectionism could hinder the green transition of the global economy.

Considering the huge potential of new energy vehicles in carbon reduction, their promotion and popularization are crucial for global climate governance. It is estimated that each new energy vehicle can reduce carbon emissions by about 1.66 tons per year, and China, as a major producer and exporter of new energy vehicles, will export up to 1.203 million new energy vehicles in 2023, which can reduce carbon emissions by about 2 million tons per year for the world.

In addition, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency, China contributed more than half of the world's new renewable energy capacity in 2023, further highlighting China's important role in the global green transition.

The U.S. move has sparked dissatisfaction among many people overseas. Bloomberg columnist David Ficklin directly pointed out that the imposition of tariffs to exclude cost-effective Chinese electric vehicles from the U.S. market will not only weaken the competitiveness of the U.S. auto industry, but also make U.S. consumers the ultimate victims.

A similar sentiment was expressed by Carlos Tavares, chief executive of the automaker Stellantis Group, who stressed that raising tariffs would not protect U.S. businesses, and instead that reducing costs and offering more competitive electric vehicles was the only way to compete with Chinese counterparts.

Unpopular new energy vehicles are suspected of excessive packaging?

At a time of increasingly fierce global competition, the domestic new energy market is also full of gunsmoke.

The new energy market is undergoing a deep reshuffle, and the concentration has increased significantly. According to statistics, in 2018, there were more than 487 new energy vehicle manufacturers in mainland China, but by 2023, there will be only about 50 new power car companies left in normal operation.

In 2024, car giants will increase the speed of new product launches while launching price reduction strategies, and the elimination of the new energy vehicle industry will accelerate. Zhu Jiangming, founder of Leapmotor, said that only 5 to 10 domestic new energy vehicle companies will survive in the future.

The Matthew effect in the new energy vehicle industry is becoming more and more obvious, with the strong becoming stronger and the weaker gradually marginalized. In such a market environment, some unpopular car companies have to adopt various strategies to attract users in order to survive, one of which is the over-packaging of the so-called "black technology".

For example, recently, Skyworth Automobile was out of the circle due to the "original health 3.0 system", and Huang Hongsheng, the founder of Skyworth Automobile, said that since using his own products, his hypertension and diabetes have been cured. Although Skyworth Automobile responded afterwards that "Huang Hongsheng has never said that his personal experience is universal", Skyworth Automobile is still suspected of exaggerating publicity. From January to March 2024, Skyworth Automobile will have an average of 857 vehicles per month.

In fact, it is not new for unpopular car companies to over-package, and this trick has also been used by Zhiji Automobile and WM Motor.

Zhiji Auto once claimed to be equipped with a quasi-900V ultra-fast charging solid-state battery, but experts pointed out that its so-called solid-state battery is actually a semi-solid-state or quasi-solid-state, and there is still a certain gap with a pure solid-state battery. Moreover, the research and development of all-solid-state batteries is difficult and costly, and large-scale commercialization has not yet been realized.

Shen Hui, the founder of WM Motor, has repeatedly exaggerated the popularity of its autonomous driving technology on social platforms, claiming that WM is the first company to popularize L2 autonomous driving to the range of 150,000-250,000 yuan, and said that WM is confident that it has the confidence to achieve the mass production and popularization of L3 and even L5 autonomous driving. But in fact, Continental's intelligent assisted driving technology has not yet broken through the L2 level.

From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales of Zhiji Automobile will only be more than 10,000 units, and the sales volume of Zhiji Automobile in April will be 3,000 units, ranking at the bottom of the sales volume of new energy vehicle companies. WM Motor has long since left the new energy table.

In addition to over-packaging, these unpopular cars are not off the beaten path, and have applied for various bizarre patents to attract the attention of car owners.

For example, Zhiji Auto's "In-Vehicle Plant Maintenance" patent aims to achieve plant identification, watering, ventilation, and lighting through the vehicle's system, so that car owners can easily maintain plants in the car. Meizu has published a patent for "a mosquito repellent method, processor and mosquito repellent system for automobiles" in response to the problem of mosquito bites in cars. Jidu is even more ingenious, applying for a patent called "a vehicle-mounted fishing system and vehicle", trying to attract middle-aged male car owners through automated fishing functions.

summary

With the intensification of the involution of new energy vehicles, automobile companies can be said to be racking their brains, relying on excessive packaging may attract some traffic in the short term, but in the long run will only damage their competitiveness. The same is true for the United States, if it always focuses on suppressing others instead of developing itself, even if it can make small profits in the short term, it will eventually eat itself.

In the future, the real competitiveness of trams will come from intelligence and interconnection, technological innovation, industrial chain and ecosystem, environmental protection and energy saving, brand reputation and sustainable development, which is the key to determining whether enterprises can gain a foothold in the market.

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Personal opinion, for reference only