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A lot of people are urging me to change the special debt.
I observed the back-end user data and found that the people who urged them hadn't seen it half a year ago.
I wrote about this topic in advance and wrote in detail. What's happening now is just what we talked about more than half a year ago.
At that time, I talked about two important topics, one is the three tables, the balance sheet of the resident sector, the balance sheet of the corporate sector, the state.
At present, the two tables are at a high level in the world, and only the third table can be used to cover the debt.
If you look at Europe and the United States, they are in an inflationary cycle because their third table has already been shot at the beginning of the epidemic.
It is commonly said that if you don't spend money, you will spend money for you.
And for a long time, we have 8 spare regiments lying in ambush in the forest, ready to standby, about these, I did a detailed analysis half a year ago.
Then all you see now is eight regiments in the woods, and a battalion came out.
The specific effect geometry, it depends on the strength, but also depends on the range.
If in the end, eight groups come out one after another, and they are aimed at the consumer side, that is, they will directly send money for you to buy, that is the effect of the United States.
If it's just a little dispatched, then the goal is to take on the debt for the city.
After all, the residential sector, the corporate sector can repair the balance sheet on their own, and the city can't wait.
When the city can't sell land, it is not enough to maintain salaries by relying on the increase in water, electricity and coal prices alone, and the city's operation and maintenance personnel, so many facilities, need funds.
This debt can only be taken on through the third table.
This is the topic of dynamics, and the dynamics remain to be seen, and the effects are different for different dynamics.
Then there is also the problem of flowers.
If the money ends up in the tourism vouchers, it is good for tourism;
If it is in the form of subsidies, it will be good for living consumption;
If it is oriented, for example, for cars, home appliances to the countryside, or housing subsidies, talent subsidies, demolition subsidies, or even, simply buy a house with a 5% discount as rental housing, which we have predicted in advance.
The difference between us and the United States is the degree of organization.
The United States is throwing money at helicopters, and you end up taking the money to buy game point cards or stock speculation, you can't care about it, and you don't have the energy to care.
We can even manage a few masks in place, we are very precise, and we can target any industry we want.
So they only have one indicator, the strength problem, and we have two, in addition to the strength, there is also the flower.
But in general, it means the same thing, you don't spend, help you spend.
The interest rate given is low enough, only half of GDP, and expanding the balance sheet at this cost, collecting the money, spending it, and playing a certain role in the period when the household sector and the corporate sector are unable to repair their balance sheets.
So from a personal point of view, at the end of the day, it's how do you understand risk appetite, or leverage.
We are in a deleveraging cycle, and we are at the beginning of an aging population.
Overall, risk appetite is somewhat overshoot compared to previous years.
Standing at the level of public opinion, the matter of leverage is no different from that of a rat crossing the street.
That's how I see it, if you want to scold something, you have to understand what it used to look like.
You say, leverage.
When I first started my business 12 years ago, our company only invested 100,000 yuan in total, and a director paid for it.
This is the only own fund, the rest are borrowed, you can consider it leverage.
Not long after the company was founded, it participated in the bidding, and at the same time it was Huawei and IBM that were bidding, and they were unsuccessful, and we won the bid.
However, after winning the bid, it was found that the financial department could not pass the review, because the financial department of Party A required that the registered capital of Party B's winning company should not be less than 10 million, so our largest shareholder hit 9.9 million yuan to meet this threshold.
The amount of the winning bid is much greater than our registered capital, and with this contract, it is very convenient for us to finance or borrow money.
But you know one thing when you have done business, the accounts receivable and the accounts receivable are not the same.
A few years ago, when the profits of the nucleic acid business were on the hot search, I explained it to readers.
You look at how profitable they are, how many accounts receivable they have, and the problem is, that's not the money you can actually get in the end.
Doing business, especially doing TO B business, is not the same as selling mobile phones to end customers.
When we go to the supermarket to buy a bottle of water on weekdays, we pay first before we can take the goods.
It is normal for you to sign 100 million yuan on the contract, and only get back a few million on the day your company goes bankrupt.
So I say that contracts are more about borrowing money, or for financing. It's not really that a single point to recover the balance payment, you can't count on it.
When I first started my business 12 years ago, not counting other expenses, our salary expenses in the first year were 17 million.
In the past few years, in fact, the founder's team really took out its own principal, that is, the 100,000 yuan at the beginning, and the rest of the money came from leverage.
So this process of continuous financing, mortgage, borrowing, and the rise of the company's market value is actually expanding the balance sheet and increasing leverage.
It's like when you finally go bankrupt, as soon as you settle down, you lose 100 million, how much did you invest? 100,000, then your leverage is 100 times.
This ratio is very normal, and it was the case in most companies more than a decade ago.
I remember a few years ago, a lot of people talked about ants and said they leveraged hundreds of times.
Yes, but the problem is, in those days, everyone was like that.
You only paid 100,000 yuan, leveraged 1,000 times the leverage to do 1 billion business, and finally settled, you lost 100 million yuan just for the loss, which is 100 times your own principal, which is very common.
So we're entering a deleveraging cycle today, and both the corporate and residential sectors need to repair their balance sheets.
In the end, it's the seniors who have played too much.
But, let's say again, a hundred times the leverage is certainly not normal, but one or two times the leverage is quite normal.
Moderate leverage is a normal economic behavior, don't go to the other extreme because the predecessors played too much, stigmatizing leverage, fearing leverage, and becoming once bitten by a snake, ten years afraid of the well rope.
This kind of swing-like national sentiment will cause it to go up when it rises, and it will fall when it falls, and when you wear a mask, you don't go out, you avoid your neighbors like a snake and scorpion, and when you don't wear a mask, you go to the cruise ship to grab food.
This kind of swarm national character is extremely easy to be exploited by speculators.
Pay attention to the official account and the compass in the world to read the text "How to become an investor step by step"
