On April 3, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, The head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, Alahamia, said: "We are currently communicating with China through diplomatic channels in order to make China a security guarantee country in Ukraine." He pointed out that compared with the progress of other countries, the current progress with China is less, and it can be seen from the words of the Ukrainian representative that after the United States has repeatedly made it clear that it will not send troops to help Ukraine fight Russia, Ukraine wants to change to China's lap and let China provide security protection. On April 1, Wang Lutong, director of the European Department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that "China has not received a request from the Kiev authorities for China to become a security state for Ukraine."
The Ukrainian side now hopes to build its unique security system through a system similar to that of the end of the Cold War, so that Ukraine can obtain the security guarantees of external powers. Of the 11 "candidate" guarantor states currently proposed by Ukraine, only Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy are willing to consider becoming Ukraine's security states.
At present, Russia has not given an overall reply on the content of Ukraine's initiative on a peace agreement, the United States has not made a clear position, and the current Kiev government's statement on negotiations and contacts with China is only one thing, but from the current international situation, from the perspective of Ukraine's choice, China may indeed be on the Kiev government's security guarantee list. It should be noted that the Kiev government, which seems to have "changed its grip on China's thighs", may actually have the intention of "pulling China into the water".
Why not the United States?
Since Ukraine has such close relations with NATO countries, why not seek the support of the United States, the current world's number one power? Why not let the United States become Ukraine's security state? The reason is simple, the Kiev government has clearly seen the American routine, so that the United States as Ukraine's security guarantee country can not only maintain Ukraine's national status in Europe, but also may lead to huge risks in Ukraine's geopolitical field. At present, the US government has no intention of participating in the War and Peace Talks in Ukraine, and US Secretary of State Blinken even said bluntly on the 3rd that the key work of the current White House is how to increase the intensity of sanctions against Russia, as for helping to safeguard Ukraine's national interests, it has not been included in the US action plan for the time being.
In addition, the current us internal political structure is not stable, in case Biden loses to Trump after 2 years, the United States returns to the previous state of "love to withdraw from the group" - when Trump "shakes his arms" and shouts to quit the group, who is Ukraine looking for to reason with? Combined with the above judgment, the Kiev authorities were right not to choose the United States, and at the same time, the Zelensky administration's failure to consider the United States was tantamount to telling the world the truth about the Russo-Ulaan War from the side, a bloody tragedy caused by hegemonism and a narrow concept of absolute security.
Why consider China?
Previously, there was a saying on the Internet that according to the Budapest Security Memorandum, from the time Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons, the five permanent members became the guarantors of Ukraine's national security and guaranteed Ukraine's national security during the nuclear war. But the problem is that the United States, one of the current five permanent members, is no longer trusted by the Zelensky administration, and Russia is the one who has waged war against itself, and only China and Ukraine have a relatively benign bilateral relationship among the former security countries around it.
Even so, for China, the current so-called "security guarantee state" should maintain an absolutely calm attitude. First, although the current peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have made progress in stages, the two sides have not yet reached a consensus on the issue of Crimea and the Donbass region, in other words, even if the list of countries to be guaranteed by security is to be discussed, it should be after the credible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine - at present, Zelenskiy is still clamoring to fight to the end, and it is obviously impossible for China to ignore the kiev authorities' so-called "security guarantee state" proposal at this time. From this point of view, the approach of the Kiev authorities is relatively unauthentic, which is tantamount to trying to wedge between the strategic friendship between China and Russia.
Second, whether the Ukrainian government can effectively restrain its forces and ensure adequate enforcement. Since the so-called Minsk agreement between Russia and Ukraine in 2015, the Kiev government has been unable to restrain the forces composed of neo-Nazis, which often clash with the Donbas militia forces in the Donbass forward, and it is this embarrassing state of "ceasefire, but not complete cessation" that has led to the current large-scale war. Obviously, for China, the uncontrollable risk of giving such a Kiev government security guarantee will be very prominent.
The current situation in Ukraine
In the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, where the military conflict or large-scale war between Ukrainian government forces and pro-Russian local forces has lasted for 8 years, the second Minsk agreement reached in the so-called "Normandy way" was extremely unrealistic from the beginning, and the implementation of the Minsk agreement could undermine the achievements of the pro-European demonstration movement in Ukraine and strengthen Russia's influence in Ukraine, which is absolutely unacceptable to Kiev. For Ukrainian nationalists, the implementation of this agreement has traditionally been synonymous with betrayal of national interests.
Poroshenko agreed to sign such an agreement because the Ukrainian army suffered a military setback in Donbass at the time, and signing the agreement was the only way to avoid its complete defeat. In addition, on January 18, 2018, the Donbass Reintegration Act passed by the Ukrainian parliament further pushed the eastern conflict into a "stalemate". This bill not only designates the Donbass region, which is not controlled by Kiev, as an "occupied" region, but also legally identifies Russia as an "aggressor state.".
The Russian side naturally responded forcefully to the frequent anti-Russian moves by the Ukrainian side: President Putin signed an order on April 24, 2019, simplifying the procedures for residents of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics and even all Ukrainians to obtain Russian citizenship. As a result of this process, the number of Russian citizens in the Donbass region has increased dramatically, calls for integration with Russia have intensified, and those advocating compromise and re-integration of the political and economic space of Donbass with Ukraine have become increasingly vulnerable.
On the question of the path to a political settlement of the Donbass problem, Russia and Ukraine take a "very different" position: Ukraine insists on giving priority to the resolution of security issues and calls for the transfer of the border between the armed conflict in the Donbass region and Russia to Ukraine's control; Russia advocates the first settlement of the political status of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics in the process of Ukraine's reintegration.
The Issue of Donbass and Crimea has become a dead-end between Russia and Ukraine, and until the two sides have signed an agreement to achieve a reliable ceasefire, the so-called security guarantees cannot be achieved in the way imagined by the Kiev government.
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