Aier Ophthalmology's three quarter reports collapsed, the first three quarters of operating income and net profit increased by 35.38% and 29.59% year-on-year, the problem is that the third quarter of a single quarter operating income fell by 3.48%, deducting non-net profit fell by 5.38%.
In fact, the performance growth rate has slowed down since the second quarter, and the performance growth rate in the third quarter has declined, and the expectations in the fourth quarter will not be too good.
After the decline in the performance of Reference Dental Tongce Medical, the stock price fell for two consecutive days, and at least one floor of Aier Ophthalmology was stable.
If Aier Ophthalmology is now 20 times the valuation, then this performance is no problem, after all, the valuation is not high, there is no high growth expectations.
Now the key problem is that the valuation of Aier Ophthalmology is nearly a hundred times, a hundred times the valuation, if there is no better performance growth rate, then this drumming game can not be played.
Of course, there is also a not-so-good signal that the two core bulls Zhang Kun and Hillhouse Capital have sold, and the market has exploded.
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Zhang Kun reported in the third quarter, sold dental and ophthalmology at the same time, in fact, the logic is simple, that is, he feels that the valuation is too high, and he does not want to gamble on future high growth expectations.
In fact, we should have found that the overall consumer market this year is not very good, except for specific addictive goods, which are basically declining.
The entire consumer market is relatively weak, so what do high-valued varieties rely on to support? Global liquidity is unlikely to increase easing in the coming year, but is expected to tighten.
The logic of Hillhouse selling should not be as simple as liquidity problems, I think Hillhouse is considering that mergers and acquisitions have reached a bottleneck.
In the past decade, from a net profit of 100 million yuan to the present, the performance of Aier Ophthalmology has increased tenfold, relying on acquisitions and then consolidation.
In almost every quarter's financial report, we can see that Aier has a number of acquisitions and the construction of a number of ophthalmic projects, including overseas mergers and acquisitions.
The efficiency of building a hospital must be lower than that of direct mergers and acquisitions, which can directly generate profits and can be directly consolidated, while the investment in the early stage of building a hospital is huge, and the profit may be 2-3 years later, which will affect the profits of listed companies.
In fact, Aier is a feast of capital operation, and the expectation of Tonce is also an Aier-style merger and acquisition expectation, which is more regrettable for many years, and Tonce has not yet gone out of Zhejiang.
For the pharmaceutical industry, the biggest expectation in the future is that with the aging of the population, the market demand for medicine will gradually enlarge.
But ophthalmology is not a mandatory consumption, in fact, there is a very distinct case in life, that is, Tencent's little ma brother is still wearing glasses, and Li Ka-shing is also wearing glasses, they are all rich like this, have not done myopia surgery, what is the solution?
By the way, invest in Hillhouse Capital of Aier Ophthalmology, his founder Zhang Lei also wears glasses, haha...
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The pharmaceutical 50 index rose from 20 times in 2019 to a maximum of 60 times at the beginning of the year, and has now fallen back from 60 times to 33 times, the overall valuation is not too expensive, but it is not particularly cheap at present.
There are 127 funds tracking the pharmaceutical industry, and here are only the top ones (both on-site and off-site):
The research threshold in the pharmaceutical field is relatively high, and there are too many industry segments, but there is one indicator that is effective for a long time, that is, high investment in research and development.
With the continuous deepening of collection, the most stable and growing potential in the future is innovative R&D pharmaceutical companies, but this situation is still not too cheap.
No matter what variety of investment, you must buy cheap to have a better margin of safety, adhere to the trading principle of undervaluing, buying, overvaluing and selling.