#Double Eleven Cautious Chopping Hands # It's the annual Double Eleven, whenever it comes to Double Eleven, the first impression of people is to chop hands and buy and buy, and this year is the tail of the people to become a new word of Internet celebrity, in the face of the double eleven sweeping the national sales tide, what should we think? With the strong blessing of Double Eleven, where are China's online consumption concept stocks? How exactly should we view the concept of online consumption?
First, the Double Eleven wave that swept the country
2021's double eleven is a little earlier than in previous years, has not yet entered November, October 31 at 8 p.m. the wave of payment has begun to sweep the country, so that the next day (November 1) in the morning the last pay person became the first hot search terrier of the entire network, this year's double eleven can be described as lively, we saw a series of almost crazy data:
1. From the pre-sale, the "Double Eleven" shopping carnival in 2021 will open pre-sale from October 20. On the first day of the pre-sale, Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya, the two head anchors, had nearly 500 million people watching each other, and the total transaction volume exceeded 20 billion yuan. It is reported that the Tmall Double Eleven pre-sale, a total of 14 million products collective discount, of which 1,000 brand flagship stores of the explosive goods will be fully subsidized to 50%.
2, the enthusiasm for consumption is higher than a year, in 2021 Jingdong 11.11 open four hours, Jingdong sold more than 190 million pieces of goods; as of 22:00 on the 31st within two hours, more than one million consumers across the country received Jingdong 11.11 packages. The total turnover of JD.com's own brands increased by 266% year-on-year. In the early morning of November 1, Tmall said that at 00:00 on November 1, the first wave of Tmall Double 11 was officially launched. According to incomplete statistics, in the first hour of sale, the turnover of more than 2600 brands exceeded that of last year's whole day.
3, the double eleven concept stock detonated the entire capital market, recently, on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange interactive platform, the questions about the "double eleven" activity related arrangements have also increased, a number of listed companies said in the relevant reply, the company's products to participate in the double eleven promotional activities. From Rainbow Group to Martian, from Chengde Lulu to Saturday, from Sanfu Outdoor to Anel, a large number of Double Eleven concept stocks are almost passing a model to the market, which is that Double Eleven is not only the double eleven of consumers, but also the sprint battlefield of the performance of listed companies in one year.
In the face of the wave of Double Eleven sweeping the country, under this wave, how should we look at the concept of consumption behind Double Eleven, and where is the development of the online consumer market?
Second, what is the future path of the concept of online consumption?
In fact, in the face of the boom of the double eleven promotion, behind it is the comprehensive development of China's online consumer economy in recent years, according to enterprise investigation data, there are 4.2765 million existing e-commerce-related enterprises in China. In 2019, 741,400 new stores were added, an increase of 44.57% year-on-year. In 2020, 725,400 new stores were added, a year-on-year decrease of 2.15%. In the first 10 months of 2021, 943,600 new stores were added, an increase of 62.70% year-on-year. Online consumption has become an inevitable choice for most consumers' daily consumption, and today's online consumption concept is subtly affecting the daily life of each of us, so how should we look at the development of online consumption concept?
First, online consumption, while growing rapidly, is far from slowing down. In recent years, online consumption has become the most important life choice for most consumers' daily consumption, according to the data of China Business Intelligence Network, China's e-commerce transaction volume has increased from 26.1 trillion yuan in 2016 to 37.21 trillion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.27%, and it is expected to reach 40.2 trillion yuan by the end of 2021. As of June 2021, the scale of online shopping users in China reached 812 million, an increase of 29.65 million over December 2020, accounting for 80.3% of the total netizens. And in recent years, with the development of China's online consumer market, this data is still in the process of rapid growth, especially a large number of sinking market users and elderly silver users have become the source of power for the market.
Secondly, vertical segments have gradually begun to achieve comprehensive consumption upgrades. With the vigorous development of the e-commerce industry, social e-commerce and the sinking market layout have made the scale of the e-commerce industry continue to increase, the demand for e-commerce in the rural market continues to be released, and the gap between regional network consumption continues to narrow. At the same time, vertical e-commerce has gradually become an important development direction of online consumption, the main direction is the sinking market consumption, fresh market consumption, live e-commerce consumption, etc., in the sinking market, according to the data of the China Business Intelligence Network, China's rural online retail sales increased from 0.89 trillion yuan in 2016 to 1.79 trillion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 19.09%, benefiting from the promotion of the sinking market. Rural network sales in the second quarter of 2021 reached 1.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.32% year-on-year. According to iResearch data, the scale of China's live e-commerce market in 2020 will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 197.0%, and it is expected that the average annual compound growth rate in the next three years will be 58.3%, and the scale of live e-commerce will exceed 4.9 trillion yuan in 2023. The rapid development of the vertical market has injected more fresh impetus into online consumption, thus empowering the rapid rise of online consumption.
Third, the integration of online and offline consumption is becoming a market trend. At present, China's online consumption is far from the traditional online shopping so simple, online and offline integration is changing everyone's life, the rapid rise of community group buying so that e-commerce shopping gradually deep into the depths of each community, has become an important choice for most people to shop, the rise of a variety of fresh and community is illustrating this problem. At the same time, virtual goods and services are booming, with the continuous improvement of the income level of Chinese, more and more people are willing to choose virtual goods that can better meet the deep demand when buying things, whether it is a member of entertainment, or a kryptonite of games, and even the services in life are solved through virtual consumption, which further stimulates the development of the market.
Fourth, Generation Z is intertwined with the silver economy. The current market in addition to our familiar post-70s, post-80s, post-90s these e-commerce basic disk, to the post-95, post-00s as the representative of the Z generation, to the pre-70s as the representative of the silver economy is more attractive to the development of the market, for the Z generation of the back wave, the "interest ratio" represented by the degree of interest, happiness, fashion has become an important attribute of the consideration of products, when interest, spirit, feeling and other subjective feelings began to override the performance, service and other objective things, the consumption of the Z generation is more avant-garde. Also developing at a high speed is the silver-haired economy, and the frequency of online shopping for silver-haired people has continued to increase after the epidemic, and it has gradually become a consumption habit. It has been reported that the Internet usage rate of silver-haired people exceeded 20%, and the sales volume of online shopping by elderly users increased by 4.8 times year-on-year. In this case, the Z generation and the silver-haired family have also become an important part of the current market.
Nowadays, China's online consumption can be described as a wave higher than a wave, constantly promoting the rapid development of the entire market, which also makes online consumption concept stocks one of the concepts with the most development potential and imagination space in the entire capital market.
Third, what should be the investment logic of the concept of online consumption?
In the face of the booming and rapid development of the concept of online consumption, the capital market is not stingy about its enthusiasm for online consumption, the concept of online consumption has always been popular in the capital market, we said earlier that the concept of double eleven detonated the capital market so that many online consumer stocks have become the focus of attention in the capital market, it can be said that the rise of online consumption This trend has been formed.
However, in the face of the high attention of the capital market, one point seems to be a little difficult, that is, China's online consumer enterprises are often Internet attribute companies, although many of these companies have achieved capitalized listing, but often scattered in Hong Kong stocks, Shanghai Stocks, SZSE and many other exchanges, want to invest in such companies to find seems to be quite difficult. However, we have repeatedly said a concept before, that is, if we do not have the ability to discern among many listed companies, we may as well find some relatively clear trends, investment trends instead of investing in individual companies.
For example, if it is difficult for an ordinary person to find a clear concept of online consumption stocks, but there is a CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen online consumer theme index, the investment index is actually the future of investment in the entire trend. For example, during the Double Eleven period, Tianhong CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen online consumer-themed trading open-ended index funds (517283) will begin to be sold, and such index funds are undoubtedly a better alternative to traditional individual stocks.
In fact, this is the investment logic we have always said, as Buffett has always emphasized, the current market investment should find a sufficiently slippery slope, such as the online consumption concept we have repeatedly analyzed, this snow track, through the continuous trend, aspect of investment to achieve the choice of direction, which may be a better investment philosophy.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.) Index funds have tracking errors. Investors should carefully read the fund's "Fund Contract", "Prospectus" and other legal documents before investing, understand the risk and return characteristics of the fund, and judge whether the fund is compatible with the investor's risk tolerance according to its own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status, etc. The market is risky and investments need to be cautious. ）