With regard to the situation in Ukraine, a new news recently came that the mayor of Lviv and the United States Consul General of the western Ukrainian city met to discuss the defense of the city. It seems that Ukraine is ready to rely on the United States to fight a war, Lviv to defend.
So, where is Lviv? Take a look at this map of Ukraine.
The situation in Ukraine
Russia is in the far east, the three red pieces, which are now the independent east Ukrainian region, and the bottom green piece is Crimea, which has defected to Russia, and the capital Kiev, in the middle. Lviv is in the far west, and a little further away is Poland.
So, if Russia hits Lviv, doesn't that mean that the whole territory of Ukraine is basically occupied? What is the point of Ukraine fighting the defense of Lviv? What about your capital? Don't want to?
No wonder some netizens ridiculed Ukraine, whose operational plan against Russia is: Win the battle into NATO and lose the five permanents.
So, how to understand this sentence? Hello everyone, welcome to the cognitive pyramid, today we analyze what the future fate of Ukraine will look like.
The five words "playing and losing into the five constants" took me half a day to react. This joke is that if Ukraine loses, it will probably be swallowed up by a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which means that Ukraine has also entered the five permanent standing committees.
Nato
As for "winning the battle into NATO", it is not difficult to understand.
Joining NATO and the European Union has been Ukraine's dream for many years, and he even wrote nato's membership in the constitution and turned it into the basic strategy of nationhood.
But after so many years, NATO and the European Union have been extremely indifferent to Ukraine's requests and have not welcomed them at all.
Why won't NATO accept Ukraine? Since Ukraine is Russia's strategic hinterland, once it joins NATO, the blow to Russia will be fatal. Isn't that exactly what NATO wants?
In fact, there are regulations within NATO that when new members join, there can be no territorial disputes. Because NATO is a military alliance, it has a security commitment, and any member state, if there is a security problem, must all intervene.
So as long as Ukraine has a territorial dispute with Russia, it is unlikely that it will be able to join NATO. If Ukraine joins NATO, then all NATO members must stand on the side of Ukraine, and there is only one consequence, that is, the entire NATO will go to war with Russia head-on. The same is true of the European Union.
So have NATO countries beaten Russia? Ukraine's western neighbor, Poland, one of Europe's most abundant countries in recent years, conducted a mock exercise last year. During the exercise, Poland took the initiative to attack Russia, and as a result, Russia's western cluster captured the Polish capital Warsaw within 5 days and penetrated all of Poland within a week.
The Poles were very pleased with this result. After all, forty years ago, the Soviet Union conducted a "Western 81" exercise that penetrated all of Europe in a week.
In this case, no NATO or EU country is willing to accept Ukraine. Unless, of course, Ukraine can win the war against Russia this time. And not only is it necessary to win the war, but russia must be left alone and no longer pose a military threat to Europe.
But the question is, does Ukraine have this ability?
According to the information disclosed on the extranet, Ukraine is in the direction of East Ukraine this time, and the elite is exhausted. How elite is it? They deployed about 11 to 13 brigades. 13 brigades, Ukraine with such a small number of troops to fight with Russia, so we can't figure out, what Zelensky thinks?
Zelenskiy
However, Ukraine really can't do anything, his entire army, that is, 21 brigades, 13 of the 21 brigades, and the most elite mechanized troops, in a sense, can also be regarded as the whole army. The remaining small and a half troops were probably preparing for the "Defense of Lviv".
Moreover, these 21 brigades were also burned by the United States in dollars.
In 2014, the Ukrainian Army put the most elite 8 mechanized brigades into the east Ukrainian region, and the result was a terrible one. These "elites", while fighting the Donbas militia, were wiped out by the regiment, and all mechanized equipment, especially more than 100 main battle tanks and hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles, was completely annihilated by the "militia". In the end, the national defense forces of about 17 brigades in total were exhausted.
After this war, the United States was forced to "sell kidneys to save Ukraine", and NATO invested billions of dollars to fund a large number of military instructors to help Ukraine rebuild its army. So the Ukrainian government swelled, and they felt that with the help of the Americans, they had acquired an army that was more powerful than in 2014.
But is the truth really powerful?
So far, 4 to 5 battalions of the 21 brigades of the Ukrainian army have been equipped with T-80 main battle tanks.
It is not difficult to restore the army, in any case, many unemployed people in Ukraine, the difficulty is to replenish technical equipment. In recent years, military-industrial enterprises that remain in the hands of the Ukrainian government, such as the famous Maleshev factory, have been busy "green painting old cucumbers" and repairing T-64 and T-72 tanks in their refurbished stocks. The Maleshev factory, in the past few years, has also completed a great task, that is, 8 T-80 main battle tanks, pulled out of the garbage heap in the tank cemetery, repaired and re-delivered to service. To interject here, this Maleshev factory, once the pride of the Soviet military industry, used to produce 900 tanks a year, and in the decade from 2009 to 2019, Maleshev only produced one tank, and the workers did not receive wages for 4 consecutive years.
Tank cemetery in Kharkiv
In order to find tanks for Ukraine, the United States made a strange move, mobilizing several anti-Russian countries in Eastern Europe to take out some tanks to support Ukraine. So, Poland and the Czech Republic sent back the castrated version of the T-72 that the Soviet Union had exported to Eastern Europe, so that these old tanks could play the last bit of residual heat in the birthplace.
Old T-72 tank of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine
So, the Ukrainian government army, the fascist militia, and the real militia in east Ukraine, the head of the family, are all T-64 and T-72, and even an unknown number of T-55 classic cars. As for the motorized brigades, which were filled with a large number of Western Ukrainian and "Nazi" elements, they were mechanized by trucks from local compatriots.
Therefore, it is clear that such an army lacks the ability to win a modern and mechanized war, and it is difficult to deal with the "militia" in Eastern Ukraine, not to mention the regular army of the Russian army.
Let's look at Russia on the other side.
When we look at the news, we all say that Russia has recently deployed troops on the Russian-Ukrainian border, but we don't look at the map and don't know the seriousness of the situation.
Deployment of Russian armed forces
In this map, the dense Russian flag around the territory of Ukraine represents the military force that Russia has deployed so far. If we pull a red line between the garrison in northern Ukraine, the garrison in Belarus, and the garrison in Moldova in southern Ukraine, then the whole of eastern Ukraine forms a very large salient, which we call the "Balcony of Eastern Ukraine", and the capital Kiev is in this salient.
Let's look at the recent Russian military movements. On Saturday, 50 Su-25S3 attack aviation regiment aircraft arrived at crimean combat airfields. That is to say, once the war begins, the Russian Air Force flies to Ukraine, at the position of Perekop, which takes only a few minutes.
Three gunboats, eight landing craft and several security vessels of the Russian Caspian Fleet entered the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait. Two large landing ships of the Northern Fleet, also along with the Marines, passed through the Bosphorus to the Sevas, Topol Naval Base in Crimea. Note that the key word is landing craft.
Russia also closed this week, with large swaths of waters in the Black Sea near Crimea reopening until Oct. 31, with "peaceful passage for foreign warships and ships of other countries" suspended in the coming months. So the Ukrainian Navy, in the Sea of Azov, was wrapped in dumplings by Russia. Now he had only two options: either to wait for half a year and wait until Russia unsealed the Kerch Strait, or abandon the ship and go ashore and take the land route back to the military base in the west.
However, the Russian Defense Ministry comforted Ukraine and said, don't panic, we are doing all this, just exercises, in preparation for peace.
The only safe direction for Ukraine now is a small piece of the border with Poland, the western border. Therefore, once there is really a war, the capital Kiev, I am afraid that it will not be able to save it.
However, if Russia and Ukraine really want to go to war, at least until after May, the local area is now in the muddy period of winter snow thawing, and it is difficult for mechanized troops to pass, and it must wait until the mud period is completely over before they can fight.
However, seeing more and more cannons set up by Putin, the Ukrainian side has begun to "instigate".
The first to provoke is Canada. Over the years, 200 Canadian officers have been training Ukrainian forces to fight "by NATO standards." But recently, the Canadian government said that near Lviv, at the Yavolo, Fusk Proving Ground, there was an outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and Canada decided to urgently evacuate the military instructors back home.
But in fact, the possibility of instructors returning to Canada and contracting the new crown is greater than staying in Ukraine.
The second instigator is the United States. Last week, the secretary of state just made a statement of firm support for Zelenskiy's regime. As soon as the words fell silent, the United States canceled the two warships that had been scheduled to be deployed in the Black Sea region. The two ships, originally scheduled to pass through the Bosphorus Strait on 14-15 April and then stationed in the Black Sea until 4 May, have now withdrawn, leaving the Ukrainian Navy in a dilemma in the Sea of Azov.
At the same time, Biden first called Putin and asked for face-to-face talks in the coming weeks, but Putin refused.
Seeing that NATO and the European Union are all mouth cannons, and the good neighbor Poland cannot help, the Ukrainian military is the third instigated. Two days ago, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Ruslan Homchak, said in a statement: "The liberation of temporarily occupied territories by force will inevitably lead to a large number of civilian deaths and military casualties, which is unacceptable for Ukraine." The admiral also turned his head and shelled the Ukrainian government, saying that Ukraine's military expenditure has been stolen by the Ministry of Defense, so far, the Ukrainian army, even can not let every soldier get adequate nutrition, the Food of the Ukrainian Army, is far from the standards of the modern army. A few years ago, there were even division commanders of the Ukrainian army, who defected to the Russian army with thousands of troops for stuttering.
As the saying goes, the emperor is not a hungry soldier, he can't even eat enough, he has to send it to the battlefield as cannon fodder, which is a bit excessive.
Therefore, since the military said so, this battle is most likely not going to be fought. Unless the president himself goes to war, goes to the front line to perform a joke and laughs at the Russian army. In fact, Zelenskiy was also instigated, and his press secretary recently said that "the claim that Ukraine intends to attack The Donbass is completely false, that is, disinformation".
But then again, no one dares to pack a ticket, saying that war will certainly not break out, and Ukraine will certainly not be destroyed. Although from a rational point of view, as long as Ukraine is not stupid, it will not hit the stone with a pebble. But, sometimes, people are not rational. In 2014, no one wanted to get it, Poroshenko dared to play Dongwu; in 2008, no one wanted to get, Saakashvili, dared to play South Ossetia; so, the ghost knows that in 2021, the comedian Zelensky, dare to come out with a "didn't expect"? After all, Ukrainian politicians have always been wishful thinking: as long as I fight with Russia and die tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of people, NATO will see my sacrifice, will recognize my value, revise the treaty for me, and let me enter NATO.
So speaking of which, everyone must think that Ukraine loves NATO so much, NATO must have given a lot of benefits.
Ukraine
Actually, it was very wrong! In the 40 years since the founding of The People's Republic of China, Ukraine's largest trading partner was Russia in the first 37 years and China in the last 3 years. It can be said that without the support of Russia and China, the Ukrainian economy will collapse.
Everyone has been complaining that we have assisted many white-eyed wolves in the past. But if you give the white-eyed wolf a ranking, Ukraine can definitely make it into the top three.
China has given Ukraine two "nuclear protection" pledges, and no second country in the world has such treatment. China is Ukraine's largest trading partner and the largest customer of Ukraine's military industry. Ukraine, however, is not grateful to China, and he has been watching the United States act with a look. For example, recently, Ukraine originally wanted to sell "Madasic", an aircraft engine company, to China, but in the end it turned out to be reversed, and the company was nationalized and not sold to China. For example, when Ukraine reported on the new crown pneumonia, it also quoted the words of the Americans, saying that the virus came out of the laboratory; China donated masks to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian media said that we bought them ourselves; just when sanctioning Chinese companies, Ukraine was still looking for China to ask for vaccines, investment, and sponsorship.
It's just not to the extreme.
As for the Ukrainian people, the general attitude towards Chinese is: inferiority in the sense of superiority, disdain in the flattery.
Ukrainians rank the world first, Europeans second, And Japanese third.
Many people were thrilled when they talked about Ukrainian beauties. But we only see Ukrainian girls running to China, do you know how many people are running to Europe and the United States? Ukraine is known as the "Womb of Europe".
In recent years, there are indeed many Ukrainian beauties, even underage students, to Come to China as models, even if their hardware does not meet the standards of professional models, but with their looks, they can still easily become wild models, earning 1,000 yuan per hour, as for the customs industry, the income is more. However, the vast majority of people, who have made money in China, will go to Western Europe to buy and settle down, buy various luxury goods to package themselves, and then catch a golden turtle son-in-law. An Italian blogger complained that he had met a Ukrainian model in a bar, and this girl used very mean, even racist remarks, to ridicule the Chinese boys who pursued her, and even he, the audience, could not stand it. This is the attitude of many Ukrainians to China: on the surface doing Chinese business to earn Chinese money, behind the scenes, they look down on China in all kinds.
If China is just losing money, ukraine is a pain in the heart for Russia.
In the Soviet era, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union fully supported Ukraine's economic development, and even Crimea was packaged and sent to Ukraine, and finally Ukraine was built into a Soviet, heavy industrial base, especially the military industry, which was particularly developed.
It stands to reason that Ukraine could have become a powerful industrial country. But Ukraine's industrial system, which is a Soviet standard and highly compatible with Russia, is meaningless to the EU. For example, factories in Russia produce tank engines, and factories in Ukraine produce tank turrets, and the cooperation is seamless. But the Ukrainian turrets could not fit the German tanks.
Therefore, the two countries of Russia and Ukraine have such a strong bond, and the Ukrainian economy is highly dependent on Russia, why does Ukraine oppose Russia to the point of going crazy?
In fact, it is because Europe and the United States insist on brainwashing for forty years and wash Ukraine into a "brain death".
I was very impressed with an interview I did more than a decade ago. It was the Ukrainian election, and the reporter asked a passerby, why did you choose the pro-American Yushchenko? Passers-by replied that Yushchenko was handsome, while the pro-Russian Yanukovych was bad and did a lot of rogue things. The reporter asked, how bad is Yanukovych? Can you give an example? Passers-by couldn't say a word. It can be seen how powerful the brainwashing of the media is.
Yanukovych
Ukrainians, obsessed with the West is something we can't imagine. In their cognition, life in the European Union, happiness is like heaven, there are flowers everywhere, you can get a salary without going to work, and you can earn unemployment fees while lying down. Young Ukrainians even think that their best way out is to go to the European Union as refugees.
That's why, in 2013, after pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych decided to suspend his eu-accession agenda, he caused outrage and countless people took to the streets, demanding that the president get out of the way and not prevent us from defecting to the EU.
However, the European Union does not want Ukraine, the second poorest country in Europe, except for beautiful women and useless Soviet arsenals, the value of Ukraine is only one, that is, it is used against Russia, so it has completely become a bridgehead for the West to restrain Russia. The EU feels that since you are a battlefield, you naturally have the consciousness of cannon fodder, why should you develop the economy, why should you join the EU, drag everyone down? Just keep the status quo.
But the problem in Ukraine is that he is brain-dead, unable to see the hypocrisy of the West, and strong in the outside world. And no matter how weak Russia is, it is also a military power, how can it allow the West to mount missiles on its doorstep?
In addition, Ukraine is still a divided country, the eastern region, long under the protection of the Soviet Union, industrial development, relatively rich, the language is also Russian, so the east wants to join Russia. But western Ukraine, such as the beginning of the video, Lviv, who wants to fight a defensive war, has been colonized by foreign countries for a long time in history, and did not return to the Soviet Union until 1945, they frantically want to join the European Union, hate Russia to the death, even if they starve to death, they will cut off Russia.
In this way, the country was torn apart.
Ethnic distribution of Ukrainian languages
If we are clear about the history of Ukraine, we can generally judge in what direction this Ukrainian incident will evolve. In fact, Ukrainians have a good idea of the fate of their country. They had predicted that ukraine's population would decline sharply year after year due to the continued economic recession. After 200 years, the Ukrainian nation may cease to exist.
And in this conflict, Putin once again proved peter the Great's famous saying: Russia has only two allies: the army and the navy. If a country has a very harsh geopolitical environment, then its fists must be hardened and its backbone must stand up. The strong contrast between Ukraine and Russia also has a very profound reference significance for us.
Well, today I will share here, like friends also implore you to like and pay attention, but also welcome everyone in the comment area to leave a message to discuss, we will not see the next issue, blessings to everyone.