Yuan Yihong: Show sincerity and inject confidence into the property market

Before the Spring Festival, someone asked me what impact the Wuhan epidemic had on real estate. My view is that the pandemic has had an impact on the economy for everyone in all sectors, but real estate may be one of the less affected industries.

The impact of the epidemic on real estate is divided into two aspects, one is for holding properties and the other is for selling properties. The impact on the former is great.

Most real estate developers have a certain amount of property holdings, and the general ones are commercial properties and cultural tourism. Shopping mall shopping mall, the Spring Festival is the most prosperous season of the year, and now the status quo is that the bare opening is also sparsely crowded, and the turnover has declined sharply, less than one year-on-year. Most real estate developers have adopted rent reduction measures to help merchants tide over the difficulties.

The cultural tourism industry is more difficult, and playgrounds and snow rinks are generally closed. The larger group is estimated to have reduced revenue by more than a billion or two billion. Although the National Development and Reform Commission urges all localities to resume work as much as possible, this mainly refers to factory enterprises, and it may take some days for the cultural tourism industry to reopen.

I personally suggest that cities outside Hubei should also create conditions for cultural tourism to open under the premise of ensuring the safety and control of the epidemic. Most of the amusement facilities are outdoors, the venue is open, the air circulation, as long as the number of people entering the park is slightly restricted, masks are required, and the seats are separated, which is not safer than taking the bus and subway.

There is also an impact on the sale of the property, but it is controllable. The biggest impact, of course, is that the sales offices are closed, the houses are not sold, and the real estate developers have no source of income. Sales collection is the main source of cash flow for real estate developers, and this time it is suddenly blocked by the epidemic, and there will be pressure on anyone who is shelved.

Projects in third- and fourth-tier cities expect that the return to their hometowns during the Spring Festival will be interrupted, and the sales during this period in previous years can account for 20% or 30% of the year; although the Spring Festival in first- and second-tier cities is the weakest time of the year, there will be some transactions, rather than as it is now.

No one knows when the sales office will reopen. I personally still suggest that cities other than Hubei should allow sales offices to open at the end of February under the premise of ensuring safety and control. Thorough disinfection, everyone must wear a mask, limit the flow of visitors (there are not many people going), and salespeople maintain a distance of more than 1.5 meters from customers for negotiation. As for signing the contract, it is easy to do, and it is easy to take turns to go up to the table to sign. If it were not for the outbreak, there would be a wave of transactions in March as usual.

The real estate people are uneasy, not only because they do not know when the sales office will reopen, but also worried about whether the buyers will come after the reopening. I also have a sentence that the epidemic has only blocked sales and delayed transactions, but it is impossible to eliminate demand. When the demand for housing will recover is related to the general trend of the economy, and it is more related to the consumer confidence of home buyers.

I suggested above that sales offices be allowed to reopen at the end of February in the hope of catching up with the wave of transactions in March. But reopening, this Year's March can not be expected. Therefore, most real estate developers should be mentally prepared for the worst transactions in the first quarter of this year. Small and medium-sized housing enterprises tighten their pockets, the head housing enterprises have a strong ability to resist risks, and dare to take land in a big way under the epidemic. On February 11, the first land transfer in the Year of the Rat in Beijing sold 8 billion yuan, and the bidding for popular land still reached dozens of rounds.

A quarter of poor harvests, large, medium, and small housing enterprises are uncomfortable. But you can't just sit back and wait.

I heard that some project leaders have resumed work in the eighth grade, working from home, video conferencing, and discussing various plans, and they are also very busy. But for the sales line of housing enterprises, the most important thing is when to sell the house, you know, the boss did not reduce the sales task throughout the year because of the arrival of the epidemic.

As mentioned earlier, housing enterprises are facing cash flow pressure that is basically not traded. Then before the sales office opens, find ways to win customers, lock customers, and get some cash income in advance. A more feasible way is to sell houses online. Now that VR technology is so developed, video viewing is completely fine. There is also no barrier to communication between customers and salespeople through video. If the negotiation is completed, the customer can call the deposit or down payment to lock the house first, and as for the formal contract, it is not too late to sign it after a month.

To attract customers and retain customers, housing companies must show sincerity. Now should be a good time to launch a marketing campaign. The light market makes profits, which is justified. When writing the manuscript, I just saw this news: on February 13, Evergrande began to implement online sales of all real estate, and by May 10, buyers enjoyed the lowest price purchase, no reason to check out, multiple house purchase discounts and other rights. I remember that at the beginning of last year and during the National Day, Evergrande launched related marketing activities, and from the perspective of sales, the results were very remarkable.

I personally just think that during Evergrande's marketing campaign, deposit 5,000 to 20,000, and the amount of preferential treatment is a bit low. I suggest that the preferential amount should still be divided into cities, the third and fourth-tier cities can be deposited 5,000 to 20,000, the second-tier cities can deposit at least 10,000 to 50,000, and the first-tier cities are at least 20,000 to 100,000; importantly, before signing the formal contract offline, the down payment can be called, and an additional 1-3 points of discount can be given. This is only a bit appealing during the pandemic, otherwise the marketing gimmick is even more important. Especially those small and medium-sized housing enterprises with higher debt and great financial pressure should act more quickly and resolutely.

Many friends said that I used to like to sing about the empty property market, which is actually a great misunderstanding. What I have long objected to is that house prices are rising too fast, which is completely different from singing the empty property market. And even today, I still think that China's real estate still has a long period of development, but the house price must not rise as before; even if the epidemic has blocked the transaction of houses, I still have confidence in Chinese real estate, after the epidemic, I want to buy a house will definitely buy, and if he can buy two sets, he will still buy two sets. The only thing to remind is that don't use the past thinking to look at commercial housing, it is no longer a risk-free, high-yield investment variety.