Summary of Shijiazhuang Real Estate Market Report for week 38/39 of 2021
Deal efficiency fell sharply Demand sentiment fell to a freezing point
The weak performance of the national market has given the background and foundation for the current weak performance of the Shijiazhuang market. However, the current extremely strong wait-and-see mood of Shijiazhuang buyers and the accumulation of heavy burdens have made the possibility of market transactions rebounding in the short term more and more unlikely. In the current period, a number of projects in the Shijiazhuang market opened for sale or pushed new listings, and the general feedback of housing enterprises and projects is that the decline in transaction activity is very significant, which is manifested in the decline in the efficiency of subscription, the shrinking scale of subscription, the efficiency of subscription conversion transactions from 90% in 2020 to less than 50% at present, and forcing the transaction conversion expectations of housing enterprises and projects to drop from 60% to less than 50%. At present, there are many factors restricting the market, the situation of strict and tight policy at the policy level has not changed, housing enterprises are affected by the "three red lines", buyers are affected by the reality of the market environment, prospect expectations and rising housing loan interest rates, financial institutions are affected by the real estate loan concentration management system, all aspects of project sales and all aspects that may affect the transaction effect are covered, and buyers are expected to fade without room for turning, and can only be forced into a wait-and-see situation.
We believe that the price competition in the Shijiazhuang market in the fourth quarter will be more intense, and will surpass all stages in the history of the Shijiazhuang market, and the subjectivity and enthusiasm of the projects in the second ring road to join the price for volume are stronger than in the past, and there is no place for the market to stay out of the matter. However, in turn, the brand influence of housing enterprises that adopt price-for-volume measures will be dampened; the project quality and construction quality of projects that take price-for-volume measures will also be negatively affected to varying degrees. The above results will gradually appear in the future Shijiazhuang market. In addition, by the beginning of 2022, there will be a new round of reshuffle in the pattern of shijiazhuang housing enterprises, and some housing enterprises will clearly withdraw from the Shijiazhuang market for the time being or for a long time; local housing enterprises, due to the obstruction of the sales end, the development end is difficult to adapt to the new urban planning and development rules, and there will also be an exit from the market, and this round of reshuffle will run through the market throughout the year.
Urban surface: two pressures: demographic structure and investment malaise
Keywords: Tuotuo River ecological and economic belt
The special meeting of the Shijiazhuang Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China studied the development plan of the Tuotuo River Ecological and Economic Belt:
1. Focus on "subtraction" within the second ring road and "multiplication" outside the second ring road, further open up the urban development framework, and promote the coordinated development of ecology, industry, culture and landscape in the Tuotuo River area.
2. Organically combine the planning and preparation work with the overall planning of the city's land and space, rationally optimize the spatial layout, and expand the space for urban and rural development.
3. Guide the emerging functions of the city to gather along the Tuotuo River, and strive to achieve key breakthroughs in the core area and steadily promote the expansion of the area.
Focus research: The industrial functions along the Hutuo River are determined, the first section of Luquan District is a "new generation information technology industry expansion zone", a section of Xinhua District is a "cultural and creative zone", the western section of Chang'an District is a "central vitality zone", the eastern section of Chang'an District is a "new format and new model incubation area", and the current section of Gaocheng District, the future or a section of the high-tech zone is a "design and research and development zone". This shows that the planning of the Tuotuo River Ecological and Economic Belt should be industry-led, and urban functions are involved, but it will be concentrated in the western section of Chang'an District, and the development intensity is bound to be limited.
Keywords: demographics
The third executive meeting of Shijiazhuang Municipal Government: At present, the endogenous driving force and external conditions of population development in our city have undergone significant changes, the age structure of the population is unbalanced, the potential energy of population growth tends to weaken, and the degree of population aging is deepening, so it is necessary to continuously optimize the population structure.
Keywords: fixed asset investment
Special meeting of the Shijiazhuang Municipal Committee of the Communist Party of China: Since 2021, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in Shijiazhuang has continued to lag behind, and the investment in fixed assets in counties and districts such as Zhao County, Shenze County, Jinzhou City, Xinhua District, and Zanhuang County has declined significantly, which has a greater impact on the city. It is necessary to promote the decline in fixed asset investment in the third quarter to narrow significantly, and achieve a positive turn from negative to positive at the end of October, to ensure that the third quarter is better than the first half of the year, and to ensure that the annual target task is completed or exceeded.
Keywords: road traffic
1. Shijiazhuang Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: 20 urban planning roads will be opened by the end of 2021, and it is expected to add 16.3 kilometers of new roads, and start construction of 14 new urban planning roads; in 2022, it is planned to open 36 urban planning roads, including Sendai Street (Xingong Road to Cangsheng Road), Tiangui Middle Street (Mianhe Road to Zhaotong South Road), Chengjiao Street (Yuxin Road to South Second Ring Road), Xinshi South Road (Shitong Road to West Second Ring Road), Jihe Road (Zhaotong Middle Street to Duzhuang Street), Tianhe Road (Tianshan Street to Tiangui Middle Street), There are 14 roads, including Mianhe Road (Tiangui Middle Street to Qinling Middle Street), Kunlun North Avenue (Huanhe Avenue to Huaihe Road), Vehicle Factory Front Street (Heping Road to Xinhua Road), Weihe Avenue (Taihang Avenue to Kunlun Street), Dongyuan East Road (Zhaiying Street to Qingcheng Street), Tianshan Avenue (Huaihe Road to Shihuang Expressway), Guanghua Road (Workers Street to Jiefang Avenue), and Zhufeng Avenue North Extension (Zhongshan Road to Heping Road), and Fangxing Road (Fenglong Avenue to Tianshan Street).
2. The 15th Special Meeting of Shijiazhuang Land and Spatial Planning Committee: Deliberate and approve in principle the planning and design plan of Minzu Road Pedestrian Street. The project is east to Kilometer Street, west to Zhonghua North Avenue, south to Zhongshan West Road, and north to Minzu North Road, with an area of 30 hectares, including two characteristic blocks formed by one main street and five auxiliary streets, with a total length of 1535 meters.
3. The reconstruction of the 307 double line was completed. The line starts 100 meters east of the East Third Ring Bridge and ends at Tianshan Avenue, with a total length of 5.986 kilometers, a direct investment of 232 million yuan, and is built with a two-way four-lane first-class highway standard with a design speed of 60 km/h.
4. The 10 breakpoints of the Third Ring Road through the South Third Ring Road and the East Third Ring Road have all been opened and opened to social vehicles.
Focus research: Affected by the growth rate of fixed asset investment to boost demand, the recent shijiazhuang project commercial housing pre-sale supervision fund withdrawal policy has been adjusted, some nodes in advance, in order to facilitate the project to promote construction, increase investment, but the pre-sale fund supervision policy is still strict, and the boost effect is not optimistic.
Keywords: urban renewal subjects
Shijiazhuang City plans to comprehensively reorganize and integrate 77 municipal state-owned enterprises, and prepare to establish Shijiazhuang State-controlled Urban Development and Investment Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Chengfa Investment Group"), Shijiazhuang Transportation Investment and Development Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jiaotong Investment Group"), Shijiazhuang State-owned Capital Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SDIC Group"), Shijiazhuang Water Investment Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Water Investment Group"), and Shijiazhuang Cultural Tourism Investment Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Tourism Investment Group"). ) and 5 large state-owned enterprise groups. In addition, Shijiazhuang City's large-scale and strong operational independence of Beiguo Renbai Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Beiren Group") and Shijiazhuang Changshan Textile Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Changshan Group") are combined into the SDIC Group, still maintaining their relative independence in operation and forming a "5+2" municipal state-owned enterprise structure.
Focus research: According to the current situation grasped by the Focus Research Institute, the newly formed Urban Development and Investment Group will be composed of the previous real estate group and the Urban Investment Group, and synthesize the current information, and the Urban Development and Investment Group will become the main body of the first-level development of Shijiazhuang's urban renewal, especially the demolition and transformation projects of urban villages, shantytowns and old factories; the rough coal machine plots that will be listed for sale on October 19 will also be used as a "model project" for Shijiazhuang urban renewal after the introduction of the new urban planning and development top-level policies. It is developed by Chengfa Investment Group.
Keywords: former coking plant plot
Shijiazhuang Municipal Government signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Gemdale Commercial Land to further deepen cooperation in industrial parks, comprehensive urban development, sports industry operations and other aspects.
Focus research: In June 2020, Gemdale Group reached a cooperation intention with the Shijiazhuang Municipal Government on the development of the original coking plant plot, and the relevant information of Gemdale Group also appeared on the site of the plot. However, with the change of decision-making level in Shijiazhuang and the adjustment of the new urban planning and development top-level policies, the subsequent development of the original coking plant plot has also produced greater variables. According to market sources, the strategic cooperation reached between the Shijiazhuang Municipal Government and Gemdale Commercial Land still includes the original coking plant plot, but the final ownership of the plot has not yet been fully determined. Because the residential land plot ratio is strictly limited to less than 2.0, and also affected by the policy of linking the architectural style and the plot ratio, although the original coking plant plot area is 824 mu, the development space is broad, but the residential land area and building area that can be formed are bound to be greatly limited, coupled with the significant increase in the scale of public construction supporting the plot, the cost calculation of the project, project planning and market pricing will have a greater impact, and these factors will affect the final ownership of the plot.
other:
Keywords: UBTECH investment promotion
Shenzhen UBTECH Technology Co., Ltd. North China Headquarters Project landed in Jingxing County. The project covers an area of 100 acres, including North China production base, R & D center, sales center, settlement center, etc. Among them, the first phase covers an area of 33 mu, with an investment of 335 million yuan, and is scheduled to be completed and effective by the end of June 2022.
Area: Dongyuan Ancient City Ruins Park is preparing planning
1. Keywords: Dongyuan Ancient City in Chang'an District
Chang'an District is promoting the revision of the overall plan for the protection of the ruins of Dongyuan Ancient City.
2. Keywords: urban village in high-tech zone
The high-tech zone ensures that the demolition of Nandou Village is completed by the end of October.
3. Keywords: high-tech zone road
Wanquan Road (Qinling Avenue to Taihang Street) is under construction, which is an east-west secondary trunk road in the high-tech zone, with a total length of 833.1 meters, a red line width of 40 meters, and an investment of 55.1334 million yuan.
4. Keywords: Zhengding County education support
Zhengding County issued the "Zhengding County New Renovation and Expansion of Residential Projects with Educational Facilities Construction Funds Payment Standards and Management And Use Measures", in which, if the residential construction area is less than 50,000 square meters, there is no need to allocate educational facilities, and construction funds should be paid, and the standard payment is 150 yuan / square meter. If it reaches 50,000 square meters, but less than 120,000 square meters, it should be equipped with a kindergarten, and pay the construction funds for the construction of primary schools and junior high schools, and pay a standard of 115 yuan / square meter. If it reaches 120,000 square meters, but less than 180,000 square meters, it should be equipped with kindergartens and primary schools, and pay the construction funds for the construction of junior high schools, and pay a standard of 40 yuan / square meter. For those exceeding 180,000 square meters, kindergartens, primary schools and junior high schools should be built.
Land Market
Commercial Housing Market / Week 38
Commercial Housing Markets / Week 39
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Written by: Fan Xiaolu Zhang Zekang
Audit: Hui Jie Yu
Research Institute: Focus Institute
Address: Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, Yuhua District, Huai'an East Road, No. 121 Wanda Office Building, Block A, 15 floors
Exclusive release: Sohu Focus