Chen Xuegen
After the tenth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission put forward the goal of "promoting common prosperity in high-quality development", the pace of structural adjustment of the real estate industry will be further accelerated, and at the same time, the financial security problems of real estate, the problem of high housing prices that restrict people's livelihood and social fairness, the problem of disorderly expansion of capital in the real estate industry, and the high dependence of the national economy on the real estate industry are expected to be resolved one by one, and the real estate market in deep adjustment will usher in a new turning point.
To achieve common prosperity and ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry, we must first establish a long-term mechanism for the real estate market. In 1998, the Notice of the State Council on Further Deepening the Reform of the Urban Housing System and Accelerating Housing Construction opened the prelude to the reform of the housing system. Among them, the establishment and improvement of a multi-level urban housing supply system based on affordable housing is the core of housing reform, this multi-level housing supply system consists of low-cost housing, affordable housing, commercial housing, the lowest-income family rental by the government or units to provide low-rent housing, low- and middle-income families to buy affordable housing, other high-income families to buy, rent market-priced commodity housing. Unfortunately, after nearly 20 years of development, this housing supply system has only left commercial housing thriving. At the end of 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference for the first time clearly put forward that "the house is used to live, not to speculate", and the second housing reform and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market were finally put on the agenda. In recent years, with the direct entry of collective land into the market, strict land transfer conditions, unified collection of land transfer fees by tax departments, centralized supply of land, improvement of land bidding, auction and listing rules, active promotion of real estate tax legislation, suppression of speculation and excessive investment, plugging loopholes in the real estate regulation and control mechanism, and strengthening the construction of affordable rental housing, real estate has begun to return to the essence of housing, and the long-term mechanism of the real estate market has begun to see the beginning.
Second, it is necessary to put real estate financial security in a prominent position. Studying the issue of preventing and resolving major financial risks and doing a good job in financial stability and development is an important theme of this meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. Real estate financial risks have become a major hidden danger affecting financial security. To prevent real estate financial risks, it is imperative to do the following work, one is to strictly control the scale of real estate loans. State-owned commercial banks should strictly control the scale of real estate loans and reduce the proportion of real estate loans; small and medium-sized commercial banks should not take the opportunity to expand the scale of real estate loans; second, they must strictly prevent illegal funds from entering the real estate market and block the channels for "operating loans," "discounted interest loans," and "consumer loans" to enter the property market; third, they must strictly manage personal housing loans, mortgage loans should return to their original intentions, strictly implement the policy of differentiating housing loans for multiple sets of housing, and plug the loopholes in the use of divorce, gifts, extension of social security periods, and the introduction of talents. Strictly manage the application conditions and loan amount of the provident fund loan. More importantly, it is necessary to actively prevent and resolve the debt risks of real estate enterprises. At present, the debt of housing enterprises has accumulated huge risks, some head housing enterprises are stepping on the "three red lines", debt is often trillions, once the thunderstorm, it is bound to cause a major impact on China's financial system. Real estate companies must understand that the days of borrowing and securing land are gone.
Third, achieving common prosperity and solving the problem of housing equity are both major livelihood issues and major social issues. The tenth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission clearly pointed out that it is necessary to focus on strengthening the construction of basic, inclusive and bottom-up people's livelihood security, improving the housing supply and security system, and promoting social fairness and justice. For a long time, the soaring housing prices have increased the cost of living, blocked the channel of upward social mobility, expanded the gap between the rich and the poor, and seriously affected the fairness and justice of society. House slavery, nibbling on the elderly, group rent, fleeing the north, Shanghai and Guangzhou, lying flat, and not daring to marry and have children are all related to fairness issues such as housing, education, and medical care. Living and working in peace and contentment, having a house to have a home, and living in a house are the basic ideals of life that have been Chinese for thousands of years. In the past period, many real estate developers, are to the rich service as the business orientation, the house is bigger and bigger, the more luxurious, and even think that the poor should not buy a house, the city should have a rich area poor area, they have forgotten their social responsibility. Some local governments only know how much land is sold at high prices, demolished and built, and vigorously engaged in image projects, but they cannot see how many dangerous old houses still need to be renovated, and no matter how high the vacancy rate needs to be digested. Common prosperity is the prosperity of all the people, not the prosperity of a few people, and the prosperity of tens of millions of people in Ande, the shelter of the world and the joy of the cold, is not only our ideal, but also our goal.
Fourth, it is necessary to prevent the disorderly expansion of real estate capital. An important reason for the deformed development of the real estate market is the disorderly expansion of capital. It is precisely because of the profit-seeking nature of capital that developers large and small are driven to plunge into the commercial housing market. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July 2021, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 302533 billion yuan, and the real estate development investment was 8,489.5 billion yuan, accounting for 28% of the fixed asset investment. Of China's GDP of 101.6 trillion yuan in 2020, the added value of the real estate industry contributed nearly 6,963.2 billion yuan, accounting for 7.3%, which has exceeded the COMBINED GDP of Beijing and Shanghai in 2019. In 20 years, the added value of real estate has soared by 7,041.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 78%. More than half of local general public revenue comes from the real estate sector. The disorderly expansion of real estate capital has not only washed away the diversified housing supply system and housing security system, squeezed out the development space of other industries, but also "kidnapped" the Chinese economy. At the December 2020 Politburo meeting, it was first proposed to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital. The tenth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Committee stressed the need to strengthen the coordination of industry development and support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. To prevent the disorderly expansion of real estate capital, it is necessary to gradually decouple China's economy from the real estate industry, and let capital invest in manufacturing, high-tech industries, industrial chain reshaping and other key areas of people's livelihood.
After more than 20 years of development, we should soberly realize that the real estate industry can no longer grow barbarically! At the critical moment of China's economic restructuring and industrial transformation, and in the new stage of achieving common prosperity for all people, the real estate industry must rebuild market logic, improve institutional mechanisms, maintain financial security, patronize people's livelihood and justice, and restrain capital impulses. Only in this way will there be a new prospect for a stable and healthy development of the industry.