"Open source and open data empowerment to open a new era of digital economy", the 2021 China 1024 Programmers Festival brings together 5 academicians, 6 major operating system leaders, and 16 major database leaders at home and abroad to carry out a peak dialogue with 18 professional theme forums.
Yu Bin, CTO of Lianyou Technology, as the producer of the theme forum of "Golden Decade of Automobile Evolution", convened the relevant responsible persons of Changsha Intelligent Driving Research Institute, Black Sesame, Zhongke Chuangda, Horizon, Lotus Technology and other enterprises to discuss the development opportunities and implementation paths of intelligent vehicles in the "Golden Decade" of automobile evolution from 2020 to 2030.
This article summarizes the content and views of Yu Bin's keynote speech.
There is a better chance than a smartphone to take the lead
On January 9, 2007, the iPhone was born, the Internet entered the mobile era from the desktop era, and programmers ushered in the spring of their careers. In the cloud, TO C application software emerges in an endless stream, and success stories of programmers abound.
Smartphones, two major operating systems iOS and Android compete, the United States to seize the opportunity. But with the open source of Android, China has come to the fore in the era of smartphones.
"The iPhone subverts the traditional mobile phone market, Android's open source has promoted the entry of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers, and Chinese companies occupy an important position in the field of smart phones by virtue of their market scale, but American high-tech companies still control the core technology." Yu Bin believes that smart cars may have more competitive opportunities than smartphones.
Yu Bin said that the transformation of smart cars has similarities with smart phones, but there are also differences. The similarity is that business models are driven by technological change. The difference is that mobile phones are consumer-grade electronics, while cars involve social security, can not have any failures, and have higher and more demanding requirements for technology. In the field of intelligent vehicles, due to the Chinese government's strong support for electrification and intelligent reform, Chinese auto companies, including Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal and traditional independent brands, have achieved good market performance, and in the face of international brands such as Tesla entering China, the two sides still maintain a competitive pattern of equal strength.
Regarding the future competitive landscape, "Overall, in the smart car market, China and the United States will continue to game, and China still has a great opportunity to take the lead", Yu Bin said: "We have reason to expect that in the next golden decade, China can lead the global automotive industry revolution in the field of smart cars." ”
Software will play a key role in the Golden Decade
Will a new era of mobility come, and in this era, is there a better opportunity for China's software industry?
Yu Bin believes that the answer is yes.
"The development of smart cars is a gradual process, from the Internet of Vehicles to intelligent driving, and even the realization of mobility based on autonomous driving, software will play a key role in the golden decade of change." Yu Bin said that the transformation of the automotive industry, electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing and other four major development trends, has become the consensus of the industry. These four major trends will evolve along two main lines, one is technological innovation, and the other is business model innovation.
In terms of technological innovation, the first is the change brought about by new energy technology innovation on internal combustion locomotives. On traditional internal combustion engine vehicles, OEMs and traditional Tier1s have very deep industry barriers, and it is difficult for new entrants to cross the high walls of these patents. However, with the development of battery technology, electrification technology is becoming more and more mature, and the emergence of electric vehicles has allowed many new entrants, especially Internet high-tech companies, to have the opportunity to cross-border into the automotive industry. Secondly, intelligent technologies represented by artificial intelligence can make subversive changes in the automotive industry. As technologies such as ai-based intelligent driving, intelligent voice, and machine vision are increasingly being installed in a new generation of cars, high-tech highlights are also emerging. At the same time, The Internet of Things technology can enable vehicles to communicate more with the environment and make driving safer.
In terms of business models, as smart driving and connected car technology matures, connected autonomous vehicles can "eliminate" drivers in the car, driving the transition from car ownership to car use rights, and consumers can choose to buy mobility services instead of buying a car. At that time, consumers only need to use their mobile phones to call a car, and the car will automatically come and take you to your destination before heading on to the next leg of the journey. When car sharing is truly realized, the vehicle will change from a product to a service.
With the upgrading of technology and the evolution of business models, there have been many demonstration operations and commercial operation cases based on autonomous driving around the world, and it is foreseeable that the entire automotive industry is entering a new stage of development, "We are confident that by 2030, a new way of mobility will be realized."
And all of this is closely related to the development of the software industry.
Smart cars will lead the way in revolution in the automotive industry
Regarding the impact that the development of smart cars will have on the automotive industry, Yu Bin summarized it as "three major changes".
First, smart cars will introduce new technology stacks to the automotive industry. As we all know, the engine, transmission, transmission, body structure, etc. constitute the professional technical "moat" of traditional internal combustion vehicles, and have not changed in the development process of nearly 200 years. With the emergence of intelligent electric vehicles, batteries, motors, electronic controls, intelligent driving, and intelligent cockpits have become the new core competitiveness of the automotive industry. These technologies will change the existing technology stack of the automotive industry, whether it is traditional car companies, or new car manufacturers, or cross-border high-tech enterprises, are constantly innovating software technologies, through artificial intelligence, big data, mobile communications, Internet of Things and other software technologies to promote a more thorough mobility revolution in the future.
In the reference architecture diagram of the intelligent networked car displayed by Yu Bin, the automobile architecture is divided into cloud and car side, the car side contains hardware and software, and the cloud contains platform and service applications. "Traditional cars are scattered with dozens of electronic controllers with very little computing power, and in smart cars, more and more car companies are using centralized controllers with large computing power to load more comprehensive and complex operating systems and run more and more complex on-board software." This is the transformation of smart cars on the hardware side, and on the software side, Yu Bin introduced, "More and more car companies are introducing SOA in the car, and continuously improving car functions through continuous iteration and efficient reuse of software code."
In the cloud, through the establishment of a platform, real-time dynamic collection of vehicle data, the establishment of a digital twin, accurate grasp of the vehicle status, and provide cars with assisted driving, high-precision map navigation and other capabilities and services. Based on the platform, software companies can not only provide driving and parking control services, but also provide various travel services such as online car-hailing, catering, and hotels, and new technology applications will also become the core elements to distinguish automobile brands.
Second, smart cars will bring new business models. Traditional automakers to sell automotive products profitable business model, control the complete automotive value chain including R & D procurement, manufacturing sales, after-sales service and other links, this business model since the birth of the car, effective operation so far; with the development of smart cars, more smart parts manufacturers to join this value chain, "three electricity", automatic driving and intelligent cockpit and other new technology suppliers will play an increasingly important role in the automotive value chain.
At the same time, the Internet of Vehicles helps car manufacturers to provide consumers with value-added services through OTA technology throughout the product life cycle, "like Tesla and Xiaopeng, they have reserved enough hardware computing power when the vehicle is sold, so as to continuously provide value-added services for users in the whole life cycle of the vehicle." Yu Bin said that consumers can choose to buy rear seat heating service at minus 3 °C in winter, and can choose to cancel this service in summer, and get a better experience at a lower cost.
Yu Bin believes that the key point of change is that the business model has changed from selling products to providing value-added services based on products throughout the life cycle. Based on this, automotive companies need to establish a system with product managers as the main body and management for the whole life cycle of users.
Third, smart cars will promote the formation of a new industrial chain. In the traditional automobile production and marketing process "smile curve", the core player is the vehicle enterprise, which buys parts from upstream suppliers, assembles and sells them to consumers, and authorizes dealers and service providers to control dealers and service providers downstream. But in the era of intelligent networking, upstream smart parts manufacturers have the high-tech capabilities that vehicle manufacturers lack, especially complex software system capabilities, they will have a very strong voice in the value chain, according to industry consulting agencies, the cost of a car in the future may come from software. In the downstream, due to the service capabilities of the whole life cycle, there will be more and more travel service providers in the future, "the whole smile curve becomes steeper, and the profit margin of the entire automotive value chain extends upstream and downstream".
As a digital intelligence service provider in the whole value chain of the automotive industry, Lianyou Technology provides information solutions covering 91% of the automotive industry, and has established an industry leading position in the fields of smart parts, smart marketing and intelligent manufacturing, and has many successful practices and experience accumulation.
Looking to the future, Yu Bin believes that through the continuous innovation of related enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the automotive industry chain, smart cars have the opportunity to "reshape" the automotive industry like smart phones subvert the mobile communication industry, and truly change the future of mobility.