In the early morning of this morning (September 19), Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut. This is the Fed's first rate cut since mid-March 2020. Since the last rate hike in December 2022, the United States federal funds rate has remained high at 5.25% to 5.5% for 21 months. This rate cut indicates that the US dollar has officially entered the channel of interest rate cuts.
The US dollar rate cut is positive for commodities, including crude oil, which are mainly denominated in US dollars. However, due to concerns about the United States and global economic prospects, international crude oil futures prices fell instead of rising on September 18, of which the New York crude oil futures price closed at $69.15 per barrel, down 1.16%; Brent crude futures were at $72.08 a barrel, down 1.27%.
New York crude oil futures trend
In fact, during this round of price adjustment cycle, international crude oil has hit a new low this year, and New York and Brent crude oil futures once fell below the $70 per barrel mark. Among them, crude oil futures in New York fell to a low of $65.27 per barrel, hitting a new low since early May 2023; Brent crude oil futures hit a new low since early December 2021, falling to $68.68 per barrel.
Brent crude oil futures trend
Tomorrow (September 20) at 24 o'clock, domestic refined oil prices will usher in a new round of price adjustment time window.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on September 19, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 70.37 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of -7.19%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be reduced by 380 yuan / ton, which is about three cents per liter.
This means that as long as the international oil price does not soar sharply on the last working day, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will hit the largest drop in the year tomorrow night, and the change in oil prices will also change from rising to falling for the first time this year.
At 24 o'clock on August 8 this year, domestic refined oil products ushered in the largest decline this year, when gasoline and diesel were reduced by 305 yuan and 290 yuan per ton, and 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel in Zhejiang Province were reduced by 0.25 yuan per liter.
Looking further ahead, at 24 o'clock on December 19, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 415 yuan/ton and diesel by 400 yuan/ton respectively, with 0.34 yuan for every rise and fall of No. 92 gasoline in Zhejiang Province, 0.36 yuan for every rise and fall of No. 95 gasoline, and 0.34 yuan for every rise and fall of No. 0 diesel.
So far this year, the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has shown a pattern of "seven ups, seven downs and four strandeds", and counting tomorrow night's downward adjustment, it will become "seven up, eight down and four stranded". If you don't count the stranded oil price adjustment on August 22, tomorrow night will be the "fourth consecutive decline" in oil prices.
At present, No. 92 gasoline in Zhejiang Province is 7.63 yuan/liter, No. 95 gasoline is 8.12 yuan/liter, and No. 0 diesel is 7.31 yuan/liter. Taking No. 92 gasoline as an example, the cumulative increase so far this year is 0.12 yuan/liter. This means that after the oil price adjustment tomorrow night, gasoline and diesel prices will turn from rising to falling for the first time this year, and No. 95 gasoline will also fall below the 8 yuan mark to the "7" prefix.
Source: Chao News