Reading guide:On July 22, the market rebounded, and the three major indexes all fell slightly: the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today was 656.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day; The number of individual stocks rose slightly, with a median change of 0.24%. In terms of sectors: software stocks collectively strengthened, wind power concept stocks rebounded, and online car-hailing concept stocks were active again; Liquor, duty-free, banking, fertilizer and other sectors were among the top decliners.
The rebound has not brought much sense of gain to everyone, and the market has begun to shrink again, which is still in the context of a real good release of interest rate cuts. Fortunately, the overall performance of individual stocks today is slightly better than that of the broader market, otherwise market sentiment will be further harmed. In the [Afternoon Comment] of the VIP customer platform, Brother Qian made a summary analysis and reminder with the title of "Temporary Switching of Styles, but Doubts about Continuity"——
In the afternoon, the market fluctuated and weakened, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1% at one point, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index falling by more than 1.5% at one point. However, after 14:15, a certain team couldn't stand it, and several top CSI 300 ETFs began to collectively increase their volume, which made the index withdraw slightly, but it failed to turn red at the close.
The recent market is also quite speechless: in addition to the money that changes places with a shot, that is, a certain team is seriously doing long - the rest are either lying flat or leaving, so as long as a certain team relaxes, the market will immediately weaken to show you.
After the closing, the Ministry of Finance released data showing that the stamp duty revenue from securities transactions in the first half of 2024 was 50.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54%!
"Liquidity depletion" is the core problem at the trading level, and large funds would rather rush to buy medium and long-term treasury bonds with interest rates of only a few points, rather than buy A-shares below 3,000 points. What's the problem? There are some things that can only be understood.
Returning to the topic of specific trading, there are three points to remind everyone to pay attention to-
1. The short-term trend of technical indicators is not optimistic: the callback risk of the Shanghai Index is being passed step by step, and it is currently in a state of 60-minute indicator top divergence and 90-minute indicator death fork.
2. There is an urgent need for "incremental funds" at the transaction level: unless a certain team is supported to the end, and it must turn from defense to offense as soon as possible, the market is easy to spiral and weaken in the case of insufficient strength; The question is, where does the incremental money come from?
3. Compared with the uncertainty of the index trend, the B wave rebound of the banking sector is very clear, but now its B wave trend has signs of building a "small double-head", and today the intraday has begun to test the 60-day line - if the strong support near the 60-day line is effectively broken down, it is impossible not to prevent the subsequent C wave to accelerate downward.