laitimes

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

John Ross, a former director of economic policy for the Mayor of London, recently wrote an article about "Western countries led by the United States are inducing and misleading China's economy into committing suicide," to the effect that the United States has economically defeated the challenges of Germany and Japan.

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

Now, the United States also wants to defeat China and continue to maintain its hegemony. But there is a fundamental difference in the approach adopted: Germany and Japan are both highly dependent on the United States militarily, reducing military support through threats and establishing potential national security threat adversaries – once the Soviet Union, now China.

The United States succeeded in forcing Germany and Japan to adopt policies that would make their economies grow at a slower rate than the growth rate of the United States, and finally achieved the goal of leading the world in GDP for a long time. But China, unlike the United States, is not militarily subordinate to the United States, nor is it facing a debt crisis that forces it to rely on the U.S.-controlled International Monetary Fund.

Unable to "murder and defeat" China by the same means, the United States is trying to induce, mislead, and persuade China to adopt a policy of "economic suicide," that is, let China itself adopt destructive policies that will significantly slow down the economic growth rate.

Let's take a look at the first method, Western countries led by the United States use their media discourse power to advocate that "China's economy is losing the share of other countries", which is matched by the "de-sinicization of supply chains, abandoning liberalism, and strengthening trade protectionism" actively implemented by the United States.

The United States is very good at packaging the developed economies of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and other Western developed economies as "the whole world", and trying to exaggerate the stagnation or even decline of the market share of China's commodity exports in these countries. And their imports from Vietnam, India, Mexico and other countries have soared.

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

Taking advantage of the high export growth of Vietnam, India and Mexico, China's foreign trade is losing its former glory. As a result, their economists have repeatedly published views that China's economy is about to stagnate, and even predicted that China's GDP will never surpass that of the United States, inducing capital to distance itself from China.

The second is to use fake news, fake data, and fake standards to induce China to adopt economic policies that slow down its own development. For example, Moody's ratings agencies claim that China's economic development is at risk of a deep financial crisis and give constructive advice, which could be downgraded if the mainland does not adopt it.

When Moody's and other Western analysts refer to the Chinese population, they inevitably promote the inducement theory that "the Chinese are not rich, but have grown old." Completely ignoring the fact that the number of jobs in China is far below the number of labor force in China, and ignoring the fact that the productivity of individual workers in China has increased.

China's problem today is the high youth unemployment rate and the difficulty of re-employment for older people over the age of 35, which indicates that the market demand for labor is too small, that is, there are not enough jobs that can be provided, rather than the "terrible labor shortage" portrayed by Western countries.

Ross commented that Chinese media often report and analyze "reports and analyses given by Western institutions and media." Western inducements are often propagated as truth. "Unfortunately, all of these arguments are often echoed in certain parts of the Chinese media," he lamented.

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

For example, Moody's expects China's GDP to grow at an average annual rate of 4.0% in 2024 and 2025, and 3.8% from 2026 to 2030. If the results released by the Chinese Bureau of Statistics are higher than this, they will use their influence to say that they are falsifying.

In addition, the Western media has made every effort to exaggerate the idea that China will not be able to repay its local debts, which lies behind a major financial crisis. If we are constrained by this concept and inadvertently adopt the wrong response strategy, it will greatly slow down the development of China's economy.

According to Ross's analysis, China's national foreign exchange reserves are 3.2 trillion US dollars, ranking first in the world. Germany, which is rated AAA by Moody's, has foreign exchange reserves of only $0.3 trillion. With such reserves, the Chinese government has not had the slightest problem in repaying any foreign debt.

The third point that induces and misleads China to adopt its "own economic policy" is to promote the theory of the collapse of China's investment efficiency, always emphasizing China's oversupply and overcapacity, and hindering China's industrial transformation and upgrading strategy. This is a section that most Western reports are particularly fond of repeating and then quoted by the Chinese media.

In the article, he cites the prediction of IMF experts that the efficiency of China's fixed investment in generating GDP growth will fall by nearly half in the next five years, 41% to be exact. Fooling this view would mean that China's goal of doubling GDP by 2035 will not be met.

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

Roth offered a different view, praising Chinese investment over the years as an important contributor to sustainable economic development, emphasizing that Chinese investment is extremely efficient in driving economic growth – Chinese capital is more efficient at generating economic growth than U.S. investment (pictured above).

For several years, the United States has been actively emphasizing the return of manufacturing, the United States has always been the country that attracts the most foreign capital in the world, his investment efficiency is lower than China, he is actively introducing investment, so why does China not continue to maintain a strong investment development momentum?

Here's Roth's exact words: It's a strange logic, China's economic growth has far outpaced that of other upper-middle-income economies. This path has proven to be successful, so why abandon the path that currently seems to be the most successful and choose an unknown path?

China's economic development with the United States and other Western countries is not on the same path, nor is it at the same stage, China can appropriately increase the proportion of residents' consumption, but if it approaches or reaches the level of Western countries and significantly reduces the proportion of investment in the economy, then China will not be able to rank among the ranks of high-income economies.

Ross: When the U.S. can't defeat China, it induces and misleads China into adopting an economic suicide policy

If China were to be induced to adopt similar policies, it would fall into what Martin Wolf called "the middle-income trap, in which economic growth is comparable to that of the United States when GDP per capita is low." What do netizens think about this? This article is written by Nansheng, please do not reprint or plagiarize without authorization!

Read on