laitimes

The per capita deposit is about 108,000 yuan, and the central bank data: the average per capita deposit in the first quarter exceeded 6,000 yuan

The per capita deposit is about 108,000 yuan, and the central bank data: the average per capita deposit in the first quarter exceeded 6,000 yuan

On the evening of April 12, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") released financial statistics and social financing data for the first quarter of 2024, showing that RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter, and the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing was 12.93 trillion yuan, both at a high level in the same period in history, but the growth rate decreased year-on-year. In the first quarter, household deposits increased by 8.56 trillion yuan, and based on the country's 1.4 billion people, the per capita savings were about 6,114 yuan.

Experts interpret that from the perspective of loan and social finance data, on the one hand, the problem of insufficient demand for loans and social finance by residents and enterprises still exists, and on the other hand, the supply of banks is no longer pursuing a "good start" in the first quarter under the guidance of the central bank. From the perspective of monetary capital flows, the central bank has implemented structural monetary policies, accelerated the outflow of financial resources such as money and credit from the real estate sector, and provided more support for key areas such as science and technology.

The balance of household deposits exceeded 150 trillion yuan

Some banks have been robbed of medium and long-term large-value certificates of deposit

According to the March 2024 financial statistics report released by the central bank, at the end of March, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 301.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. The balance of RMB deposits at the end of the month was 295.51 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%.

The central bank released financial statistics for the first quarter.

RMB deposits increased by 11.24 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Among them, household deposits increased by 8.56 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 222.5 billion yuan, fiscal deposits decreased by 285.5 billion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 1.56 trillion yuan. At the end of March, the balance of foreign currency deposits was US$832.6 billion, down 8.7% year-on-year. Foreign currency deposits increased by $34.7 billion in the first quarter.

According to the statistics of the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society, the balance of deposits of mainland households has shown an overall upward trend in recent years, and has risen for five consecutive months since October last year. As of the end of February 2024, the balance of household deposits was 143.24 trillion yuan, and according to this calculation, the balance of household deposits at the end of March had exceeded 150 trillion yuan, reaching 151.8 trillion yuan, accounting for more than half of the overall balance of RMB deposits.

Based on the mainland's population of about 1.4 billion, in the first quarter of 2024, the per capita deposit will increase by about 6,114 yuan, and by the end of March, the per capita deposit will be 108,400 yuan, close to 110,000 yuan.

The balance of household deposits continued to rise, indicating that residents' willingness to deposit is still high. At the level of the deposit market, there have also been related events recently. Recently, China Merchants Bank's suspension of the new three-year and five-year large-value certificates of deposit has attracted market attention, and the reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society logged on to the China Merchants Bank APP to see that the column of large-amount certificates of deposit (starting at 200,000 yuan) has indeed disappeared from the three-year and five-year large-amount certificate of deposit business.

According to the account manager of a branch of China Merchants Bank, the current three-year large-amount certificate of deposit has been "snatched up", and the interest rate is 2.55%, and it is recommended that customers can wait until May to pay attention if they want to buy. In addition, a recent investigation has also found that many banks in Guangzhou have no products for sale of 5-year large-value certificates of deposit.

In this regard, some banking analysts pointed out that this is related to the continuous pressure on banks' net interest margins in recent years. The interest rate of such large-denomination certificates of deposit products is higher, and at present, customers are more willing to deposit, and medium- and long-term time deposits or certificates of deposit with higher reduction costs can better manage the net interest margin, so it is inevitable to control the amount of large-denomination certificates of deposit with a high cost of funds for more than three years.

Recently, listed banks have announced their 2023 annual reports, and from the annual reports of the six major state-owned banks, the net interest margin has declined to varying degrees year-on-year. Therefore, as banks' net interest margins continue to be under pressure and residents' willingness to deposit continues to rise, the market predicts that it is a high probability event that major banks will gradually tighten long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit products in the future.

The overall growth rate of loans has declined

Manufacturing loans grew rapidly

In terms of loans, data from the central bank showed that preliminary statistics showed that the stock of social financing scale at the end of March 2024 was 390.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 244.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing will be 12.93 trillion yuan, 1.61 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 9.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.59 trillion yuan.

At the end of March, the balance of domestic and foreign currency loans was 251.81 trillion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 247.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. RMB loans increased by 9.46 trillion yuan in the first quarter. By sector, household loans increased by 1.33 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 356.8 billion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 975 billion yuan, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 7.77 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.97 trillion yuan, medium- and long-term loans increased by 6.2 trillion yuan, bill financing decreased by 1.5 trillion yuan, and loans from non-banking financial institutions increased by 233.6 billion yuan.

In comparison, at the end of March, the growth rate of RMB loan balances was 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The increase in the scale of social financing in the first quarter was also significantly smaller than that of the same period last year. In this regard, some experts believe that this is mainly affected by factors such as the high base in the same period last year, the lack of demand, and the balanced provision of credit by financial institutions.

The reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society noticed that in the first quarter of last year, the bank had a "good start" and rose more, which caused a certain overdraft in the next three quarters. Since the second half of last year, the central bank has focused on guiding financial institutions to strengthen the balanced allocation of credit, avoid the idling of capital precipitation, and reserve stamina for sustainable support for the real economy. Lin Yingqi, an analyst at CICC, believes that in the context of "revitalizing stocks", the phenomenon of excessive pursuit of "good start" in credit has been significantly alleviated, and the volume and price of credit have become more balanced. In the first quarter, the pace of loan disbursement returned to nearly 40% of the past five years.

Yu Lingqu, executive director of the Institute of Financial Development and State-owned Assets and State-owned Enterprises of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Nandu Bay Finance Society that the loan and social finance data show that weak market demand is still the main problem facing the real economy. The real estate market is weak, and the willingness of enterprises to make physical investment has yet to recover, and the demand for loans and social financing in both the residential sector and the corporate sector is insufficient.

It is worth noting that in terms of loan structure, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises (institutions) increased by 6.2 trillion yuan in the first quarter, accounting for the vast majority of the increase in loans to enterprises (institutions). Yu Lingqu said that the growth rate of M2 and RMB loans is higher than the GDP growth rate, indicating that the overall monetary policy has formed a supporting and driving role for the real economy; from the perspective of monetary capital flow, the central bank has implemented a structural monetary policy, and the outflow of financial resources such as money and credit has accelerated from the real estate sector, and the support for key areas such as science and technology, green, and small and medium-sized enterprises has been more sufficient.

Since last year, it has become a "compulsory course" for many major banks to do a good job in the "five major articles" of finance and guide credit investment to key areas such as manufacturing for model transformation. The reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society previously selected the 2023 annual reports of 13 listed banks as the key data analysis objects, and found that the growth rate of manufacturing loans of most banks last year was significantly higher than the growth rate of various loans of the bank, and the growth rate of manufacturing loans of 8 banks exceeded 20% last year. The growth rate of medium and long-term loans for manufacturing and loans for strategic emerging industries voluntarily disclosed by many banks is outstanding.

The per capita deposit is about 108,000 yuan, and the central bank data: the average per capita deposit in the first quarter exceeded 6,000 yuan

In 2023, the growth rate of manufacturing loans of 13 listed banks will be higher than the growth rate of various loans. Source: Bank annual report. Mapping of Nandu Bay Finance Society.

For example, China Construction Bank disclosed that in 2023, it will invest 2.70 trillion yuan in loans to the manufacturing industry, an increase of 20.47%, of which 1.45 trillion yuan will be invested in the medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry, an increase of 45.25%. The balance of loans for strategic emerging industries was 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 52.14%. The Agricultural Bank of China disclosed that the balance of manufacturing loans in 2023 will be 2.95 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 28%, of which the balance of medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry will be 1.21 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 58%. The scale of loans to strategic emerging industries exceeded 2 trillion yuan.

Judging from the annual reports of major banks, many banks are actively promoting the transformation of credit models. For example, the Bank of China said in its annual report that it has actively promoted the transformation of service focus from traditional industries to new industries, new formats and new models, and increased credit to emerging industries. CCB also stated in its annual report that it will promote high-quality financial development and increase support for manufacturing, strategic emerging industries and science and technology innovation industries. In its annual report, IB clearly stated that it should accurately grasp the transformation of the old triangular cycle of "real estate-infrastructure-finance" to the new triangular cycle of "technology-industry-finance", and actively lay out new tracks such as science and technology innovation finance.

Written by: Xu Jincong, reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Society

Read on