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China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

author:Agent in the box

In March and April 2024, the confrontation between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea has become more acute.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

After the Philippines sent a ship to deliver supplies to Ren'ai Jiao, which was blocked by the Chinese Coast Guard and attacked by a Chinese coast guard ship with water cannons, the US side first made a showdown statement:

The implication of this sentence is that China does not want to tow away the Philippine shipwreck at Ren'ai Jiao, and if it kills the Filipino soldier in the process, the United States will directly send troops to the South China Sea to assist the Philippines.

Then on April 7,

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

U.S.-Philippine joint island-seizing exercise

This series of events has made the Chinese people pay more and more attention to the current South China Sea disputes, and believe

China's strategy

Judging from the current performance of the parties and the situation they are facing, it is possible for a war to break out, but it is relatively unlikely.

On the Chinese side, China does not want to attack the Philippines, but it has the intention of attacking the United States, but the United States has to do it first.

China does not want to fight the Philippines because the mainland fears chaos in the South China Sea and disrupting its trade with ASEAN countries.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

China and ASEAN

The reason why the United States continues to express its stance on the South China Sea issue and its support for the Philippines on the Ren'ai Jiao issue is to allow China and the Philippines to fight.

The situation facing the United States is very dire now, with wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East on the outside, and increasingly serious inflation and the US debt problem internally.

Especially in the U.S. economy, if you have a certain understanding of the current debt scale and inflation rate of the U.S., you can know that the U.S. economy is not saved.

With the current economic situation in the United States, a huge economic crisis will break out in 2024 at the earliest, and around 2027 at the slower.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

The intensity and intensity of this crisis has at best ended with a debt crisis like the one in 2008.

If the United States is unlucky and this economic crisis is a little more intense, it will be a "super crisis" that surpasses the Great Depression of 1920, and perhaps the United States will follow in the footsteps of the Soviet Union, and the next American president will be the last president of the United States.

Against this background, the United States is anxious to plunge China into a war so that it can find a way to "fish in troubled waters."

Therefore, China is now very cautious about the issue of war, whether it is the Ren'ai Jiao issue or the Taiwan issue, and it can drag it out as much as possible. Now the longer these issues drag on, the better it will be for China.

However, there is an exception to this situation, and that is the outbreak of direct war with the United States.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

Confrontation between China and the United States

If China and the United States go to war directly, then there is no situation in which China is at war and the United States is fishing in troubled waters.

At that time, China will suffer certain losses, but it will also directly stimulate a series of problems at home and abroad in the United States, and let these problems explode directly.

Therefore, China's attitude on the current South China Sea issue is that no matter how provocative the Philippines is, as long as there is no exchange of fire, China will not end up, lest ASEAN countries say that China "bullies the small with the big". But once the United States fires, then China will directly fight and fight with the United States.

Moreover, the war between China and the United States will not be limited to the South China Sea, and the PLA will be targeted by the Taiwan issue of China and the US troops stationed in Japan and South Korea.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

U.S. Forces in Japan

At that time, China's strategic goal is to directly uproot the first island chain of the United States and turn Asia into an Asian Asia.

The attitude of the United States

On the U.S. side, don't look at the fact that the United States is constantly expressing its support for the Philippines, and even bringing out the "U.S.-Philippines Security Treaty" to talk about things, but the United States does not dare to end up.

On April 7, the United States, together with the Philippines, Australia, and Japan, held military exercises in the South China Sea, which seemed to be aimed at striking China down, but anyone with a discerning eye could see that the United States was a foreign power and a Chinese actor this time.

Because of the so-called "four-nation joint military exercise", there are only five ships in total.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

Warships of the 4-nation joint military exercise

What's even funnier is that not only are these five ships not shield ships, they are very old and backward warships, and their combined tonnage is less than 12,000 tons, which is not as big as the mainland's largest coast guard ship.

From the ships sent by these four countries, we can draw two messages. First, the United States does not want to intensify the contradictions at all, at least not in its own presence.

If the United States really has the courage to stand up for the Philippines, then this military exercise will not send a littoral combat ship with a displacement of more than 2,000 tons, but will directly send at least one cruiser formation.

Second, the three countries of the Philippines, Australia, and Japan are also aware of the idea of the United States, so they have not been able to contribute.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

U.S. and Philippine diplomacy

After all, you, the "boss", dare not stand up for the younger brother, so everyone naturally does not dare to take the lead, for fear that China will knock on their heads with a stick.

Now that we look at the Philippine actions on the Ren'ai Jiao issue in the past two months and the statements made by the United States, it is not difficult to draw conclusions.

The United States is acting, but it just pays lip service to the Philippines. When China really uses force, it will run faster than anyone else.

As for the Philippines, it is not stupid and will not be ignorant of the ideas of the United States. Therefore, the Philippines has also adopted an attitude of "fighting but not breaking" on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao, just thinking about continuing the conflict and seeing when it can take advantage of China's inattention.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

A Philippine landing ship on Second Thomas Shoal

As for the courage to go to war with China, no matter how the United States assures it, the Philippines does not have it.

Developments in the South China Sea issue

As for how the South China Sea issue will develop in the future, the better outcome will naturally be that the United States will end up fighting a war with China and will be driven out of East Asia and the South China Sea by China.

The worse result is that China will play the Philippines and then leave ASEAN.

China will not be allowed to tow away the broken ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and the United States will have a showdown with China, and if it does it, the United States will send troops to the South China Sea to help the Philippines

Chinese fleet

After the situation in the South China Sea was disrupted, the United States fished in troubled waters and succeeded in gaining greater influence in the South China Sea.

Of course, the most likely outcome is that the confrontation between China, the United States, and the Philippines will last longer.

China does not want to take the initiative to go to war, and the United States does not want to go to war with China, so China and the United States can only drag on with each other.

Therefore, the confrontation between China and the United States will mainly focus on international trade and diplomacy, and both sides will compete for their own international interests, rather than the gains and losses of "one city and one place" in the South China Sea.

Resources:

[1] Shangguan News · The United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines conduct their first exercise in the South China Sea: "Spoilers" are here again?

[2] International Online, "The United States, Japan and the Philippines "Small Circle" Fears No Chaos in the South China Sea

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