laitimes

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

author:Agent in the box

In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the role of hypersonic missiles is decisive. Compared with slow cruise missiles or even suicide drones, hypersonic missiles have a penetration efficiency far beyond ordinary missiles and have an excellent strike effect.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

China needs to stock up on a large number of missiles

Looking back at Russia's performance on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, its battlefield lessons warn China,

It should be noted that this time we are talking about a reserve of at least 1,000 hypersonic missiles, not 1,000 for all missiles.

After all, in addition to hypersonic missiles like the DF-17, China also has older ballistic missiles like the DF-15, as well as the Changjian series of cruise missiles.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Dongfeng-17 hypersonic missile

And the Air Force also has some small air-to-low missiles, and the total number of these missiles may exceed 3,000.

If war breaks out between China and the United States, the most likely scenario would be a strike by China and the United States against the first or even the second island chain.

The situation on the first island chain is ever-changing, and China naturally needs to use different missiles to deal with different targets.

For example, the Philippines is very far away from China's mainland, and if China wants to strike at the Philippines, only medium-range ballistics such as the DF-21 and DF-26 can be deployed on the mainland.

However, with the military capabilities of the Philippines, it is overkill to use the DF-21 and DF-26 to strike at the Philippines, and the cost of striking is too high.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Dongfeng-26 missile

If you want to use more economical means to attack the Philippines, you can deploy heavy fighters such as J-16 in the Spratly Islands, and then use J-16 as a platform to launch small air-to-low missiles on the Philippine mainland.

Or we could use the Navy as a platform to launch surface-to-surface missiles against the Philippines, or even hypersonic anti-ship missiles like the YJ-21.

However, most of the more important military facilities such as command headquarters and radar stations are protected by powerful air defense systems, so it is necessary to use hypersonic missiles, which are missiles with extremely strong penetration capabilities.

Normally, there are not too many advanced missiles against such high-value targets in a war, such as the only 300 precision-guided missiles used by the United States in the Gulf War.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Gulf War

These 300 or so missiles basically destroyed the resistance of the Iraqi military forces and opened the door to Iraq.

Precision-guided missiles in the 90s of the last century are equivalent to hypersonic missiles today. So normally, China's preparation of 1,000 hypersonic missiles is indeed a bit out of specification.

But the Gulf War is not the same as a possible "Sino-US war."

First, the Gulf War was a war in which a high-tech army fought a low-tech army, and the US military was technologically crushed.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

American

However, if China and the United States fight, it will be an unprecedented war in the history of mankind in which both sides are information-based and modernized armies.

Second, although Iraq is not a small country, it is relatively concentrated. However, the first island chain that China faces stretches from Northeast Asia in the north to the Philippines in the south, and the span from north to south is very large.

The battlefield spans a large north and south, so the enemy's deployment of important military facilities is more scattered, and China also needs more missiles to attack these facilities.

Therefore, compared with the 300 precision missiles used by the US military in the Gulf War, China's reserve of at least 1,000 hypersonic missiles is in line with the needs of the war.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Dongfeng-17 missile

Ordinary shells also have a huge effect

In addition to missiles, ordinary shells should not be taken lightly. After the Gulf War, the whole world believed that the future war should be a modern war of all kinds of "fast, accurate, and ruthless," and the role of artillery would become smaller and smaller, and eventually it would be completely replaced by missiles.

However, a Russia-Ukraine conflict has taught the world that artillery still plays a pivotal role in modern warfare.

Even though the United States continues to provide Ukraine with various modern weapons, the large-caliber artillery shells used by the Ukrainian army on the battlefield are still in the tens of thousands.

With the sheer size of China and the United States, if China and the United States go to war, it is very likely that this war will turn into a long-term war.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Pla

Since it is a long-term war, it is naturally impossible to use missiles to complete all strikes, and China and the United States naturally need a huge number of artillery shells.

Therefore, China needs to stock not only at least 1,000 hypersonic missiles and a large number of other general missiles, but also a large number of ordinary artillery shells.

However, China still has a huge advantage in ordinary artillery shells, because China has the strongest industrial capacity in the world.

As the "factory of the world", China has the most powerful industrial capacity in the world, and the military industry is crushing the United States.

In recent years, the United States has also had big problems in military production due to the hollowing out of its industry.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

American artillery shell production line

Like in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States has almost emptied its own artillery stocks in order to support Ukraine, and the speed of subsequent production of artillery shells cannot keep up with Ukraine's consumption.

China also needs to consider diplomatic considerations

In addition to military considerations, China also needs to take into account changes in diplomacy.

As a country with an economic structure of "big in, big out" and "big in, big out" and only by maintaining good trade contacts with other countries can the normal operation of the domestic economy be better guaranteed.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

In the event of a possible conflict between China and the United States, if China can guarantee normal economic exchanges with other countries, it will be much more likely that China will win the war.

The diplomatic tactics of Europe, in particular, can largely influence the war.

Taking the Russia-Ukraine conflict as an example, after Russia began to use military means against Ukraine, Europe directly began to sanction Russia, which caused a great impact on Russia's economy.

If it were not for China's willingness to maintain close trade with Russia, it is not known whether Russia would be able to continue this war.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Border trains involved in Sino-Russian trade

Europe is always a large economy with considerable industrial and military production capacity, and the impact of this war cannot be ignored.

Therefore, in the face of a possible "Sino-US war", China needs to be extra careful in diplomacy, and it is best to keep Europe neutral or even on China's side.

If not, then China is likely to face a siege from all of NATO.

Russia's battlefield lesson warns China: Reserve 1,000 superb bombs, and if China and the United States fight, the victory will be decided

Nato

At that time, China will have to invest more in this war, and even if it wins the war, it will have even greater casualties and losses.

Resources:

[1] The Paper, "The Second Anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict|Weapons and Technologies That Triggered Military Change (4): Offensive and Defensive Upgrades of Superb Weapons"

[2] Observer.com, "Song Luzheng: In Sino-US Relations, France Wants to Make Itself a "Good Card"

Read on