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Once in ten years, every time a big bull! The third time the "National Nine Articles" were released

Once in ten years, every time a big bull! The third time the "National Nine Articles" were released

A few days ago, the State Council issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Preventing Risks and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", which market participants called the third "National Nine Articles".

The first two "National Nine Articles" have created an epic bull market. So, will the release of the third "National Nine Articles" make the wind of the bull market blow again? Xiao Er tried to help everyone find out the core logic.

Once in ten years, every time it is a big bull

Following the two "National Nine Articles" in 2004 and 2014, the State Council once again issued a guiding document on the capital market, outlining a blueprint for the high-quality development of the capital market from multiple dimensions.

Since the release of the documents in 2004 and 2014 has created an epic bull market, the release of this document has aroused strong attention from the capital market, and investors are also looking forward to it.

Once in ten years, every time a big bull! The third time the "National Nine Articles" were released

The first "National Nine Articles" was issued on January 31, 2004

At that time, the stock market was in a downturn for many years, and the division of shares was the main contradiction in the market. At that time, the stock market was divided into two types: tradable shares and non-tradable shares: (1) Tradable shares were issued to the market and could be circulated and traded in the secondary market. (2) Non-tradable shares include state-owned shares and corporate shares, which cannot be listed and traded. Shareholders of non-tradable shares have small risks and huge returns, while shareholders of tradable shares have large risks and small returns.

In 2004, the most important content of the "National Nine Articles" was the reform of equity division, and the shareholders of non-tradable shares made cash or share compensation to the shareholders of tradable shares in order to obtain the right to circulate the shares, which opened the era of China's capital market system standardization, and a large number of over-the-counter funds poured into the A-share market. The number of bicycles at the mouth of the brokerage business department became the "barometer" of the stock market at that time.

The second "National Nine Articles", issued on May 9, 2014

In 2014, the "National Nine Articles" clearly stated that "we should build a multi-channel, wide-coverage, strictly supervised and efficient equity market, standardize the development of the bond market, expand the futures market, and coordinate the development of on-exchange and over-the-counter and public and private placements". The "National Nine Articles" laid the foundation for the bull market in 2015.

The third "National Nine Articles", issued on April 12, 2024

After the full implementation of the registration system, the approval system was abolished, information disclosure was strengthened, restrictions on enterprises were reduced, and a large number of enterprises entered the A-share market. In the limited pool, there are more stocks, and the funds allocated to a single individual stock are relatively small, and then a tug-of-war of 3,000 points has begun.

This time, the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Risk Prevention and Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), in Xiao Er's view, in addition to strictly controlling the issuance and listing access and increasing the supervision of delisting, also clearly stated that we should vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and continue to expand the long-term investment force. It can be said that the release of the "Opinions" is more accurate to the typical problems of the current A-share market and fully responds to the core demands of the majority of shareholders.

Policy is the engine, and incremental funds are the power source

If you want to stay long, you must have enough power. With the policy paving, all that remains is a large number of over-the-counter funds entering the market. In 2004, the equity division reform increased the value of a large number of high-quality tradable shares, and a large number of over-the-counter funds entered the market. In the second half of 2014, the wave of additional issuance and mergers and acquisitions in the film and television media industry also created a large number of beneficial effects. Xiao Er vaguely remembers that at that time, there were a large number of funds in the asset management market that specialized in new investment, and private equity funds that specialized in increasing growth.

From 2024 onwards, if we want to reproduce the glory of the story ten years ago, where will the incremental funds be? In Xiao Er's view, this may be the reason why the management has emphasized dividends many times. A market with long-term dividends and stable returns can naturally give funds a sense of security, and with a sense of security, medium and long-term funds will naturally continue to pour in.

Xiao Er once cited the example of Apple to prove that continuous dividends can attract incremental funds. Incremental funding allows Apple to continue to rise in the "Cook era".

The main line of high dividends may be slow bullish

Xiao Er said in the live broadcast that there are currently three main lines in the market, the AI main line, the high dividend main line and the industry policy line.

Once in ten years, every time a big bull! The third time the "National Nine Articles" were released

The main line of high dividends has been extended from the previous "finance + cycle + consumption" to "cycle + consumption", and then to the current non-ferrous sector, and the evolution of the main line of high dividends has been continuing. In this regard, Xiao Er has listed relevant companies in his article in February, and the portfolio index of these companies is slowly innovating high school.

Once in ten years, every time a big bull! The third time the "National Nine Articles" were released

The industry policy line is mainly manifested in industry rotation, and the short-term characteristics are obvious. When a new concept comes out, everyone immediately learns it, and when you understand it, the concept goes to the top.

Xiao Er feels that after experiencing great storms, he has ushered in a new era of investment. We have set countless lofty ambitions for ourselves, but the results are not satisfactory, and now A-shares are returning to the simple slow bull model, and we owe ourselves those oaths, I believe they will be fulfilled one by one.

(Minimalist Investment Research Society)

The content of this article is for reference only and is not intended as an investment basis.

National Business Daily

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