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Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

author:The interface has Lianyun

On Friday (April 12, 2024), the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the ChiNext index continuing to lead the decline, with individual stocks falling more and rising less, with a turnover of more than 810 billion yuan in the two cities and more than 7.3 billion yuan in northbound capital shipments. As of today, the underlying index of the non-ferrous leading ETF (159876 159876) has risen by more than 42% since February 6, significantly outperforming the market.

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image Credit: Snowball

In addition, the technology sector, which has recently fluctuated and declined, has also ushered in a rebound, with semiconductors, CPO and other branches taking the lead in rebounding. On the news side, a number of chip companies have recently released first-quarter performance announcements, and Jingchen shares are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of about 125 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 310%. Boosted by the global AI leader, superimposed on the accelerated iteration of large models at home and abroad, the demand for AI computing power has surged, and the CPO concept has taken the lead in picking up.

Looking forward to the future of A-shares, Guosheng Securities said that the current A-share market is in the stage of stock capital game, the rotation of plates is accelerating, and the theme is further differentiated, especially in mid-to-late April, the market ushered in the intensive disclosure of economic data, quarterly reports and institutional position data, and the market game tends to be complex, and the volatility may increase, but the downside risk may be limited, focusing on the support near 2984 points below the Shanghai Index. Strategically, seizing structural investment opportunities, high-performing central enterprises and pro-cyclical resource varieties are still the main driving forces of the recent market rally.

Today, we will focus on the trading and fundamentals of two sectors, including non-ferrous metals and technology.

1. The "Golden Age" has arrived, and the gold price has broken through the $2,400 mark! "Tongmao" Zijin Mining continues to refresh its highs, and the non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen 1.98% intraday, and the daily line has been 4 consecutive yang!

Amid the doubts, gold prices have soared savagely, and the COMEX gold daily candlestick has stepped out of a steep upward step. With the COMEX gold price breaking through the $2,400 / ounce mark, A-share gold stocks are active again, and gold stocks account for 7 of the top 10 heavy stocks in the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, among them, Chifeng Gold soared by more than 9%, Hunan Gold, Yintai Gold rose by more than 6%, Shandong Gold, Sichuan Gold, CICC Gold, and Western Gold also rose sharply.

It is worth noting that Zijin Mining (as of April 12, the weight accounted for 12.3%) of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, the largest heavyweight, continued to hit a record high of 18.58 yuan in intraday trading, closing up 2.22%

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image source: Wind

In terms of popular ETFs, the leading non-ferrous ETF (159876), which closely tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, opened higher in early trading and fluctuated at a high level throughout the day, with the highest intraday price rising 1.98% and closing up 1.2%, winning 4 consecutive daily gains.

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image source: Wind

In the long run, the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index, tracked by the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876), has risen by 42.21% since the start of the market (February 6 to April 12), significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index (11.74%) by 30 percentage points, and also surpassing the ChiNext Index (12.82%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (15.86%).

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image source: Wind

Note: The base date of CSI Nonferrous Metals Index is 2013.12.31, and the release date is 2015.7.13, and the historical performance of the index is based on the simulated backtest of the index constituent stocks. The change of CSI Nonferrous Metals Index in the past five complete years is: 24.48% in 2019, 35.84% in 2020, 35.89% in 2021, -19.22% in 2022, and -10.43% in 2023.

In terms of policy, the National Development and Reform Commission said that the central investment and central financial funds will provide strong financial support for large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. The annual demand for equipment renewal in key areas such as industry and agriculture is more than 5 trillion yuan, and the demand for replacement and renewal of automobiles and household appliances is also at the level of more than one trillion yuan. As raw materials, non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from the development of related industries.

Fundamentally, judging from the 2023 performance report released by the leading stocks in the gold industry, the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is currently positive, and the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of Shandong Gold and Chifeng Gold even exceeds 70%, and the recent rise in stock prices may be supported by fundamental factors.

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Source: Wind

As COMEX gold broke through the $2,400 per ounce mark today, institutional forecasts are becoming bolder:

1. Bank of America strategist Michael Widmer believes that gold will rise to $3,000 per ounce by 2025.

2. Huatai Securities pointed out that [the "golden age" is coming], and the accumulation of positive factors may push gold prices to exceed $3,000 per ounce in this round of 2024-2025 rising cycle.

3. The more daring UBS even believes that from a two- to three-year perspective, investors can expect to see gold double from now on, reaching more than $4,000.

According to public information, according to the caliber of Shenwan's third-level industries, as of the end of March, copper, aluminum, and gold are the top three heavy industries in the CSI non-ferrous metals index tracked by the non-ferrous leading ETF (159876), accounting for 21.8%, 16%, and 13.1% respectively, accounting for about 50% in total. It is expected to benefit from the current round of gold rally, and is also expected to benefit from the recent commodity rally.

Second, the leading performance is differentiated, and the technology ETF (515000) soars and falls to close down 0.37%!

Today's performance of technology leaders is differentiated, with semiconductors and CPO leading the gains, and computers and pharmaceuticals leading the decline. The CSI Technology Leading Index rose and fell in the afternoon, with 24 constituent stocks rising, 1 flat and 25 falling. Jingchen shares rose more than 10%, Zhongji Innolight and Shanghai Electric shares rose more than 5%, Runze Technology, Fiberhome Communications, Jinshan Office, etc. followed suit;

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image source: Wind

In terms of popular ETFs, the technology ETF (515000), which represents the market of A-share core technology assets, fluctuated sideways in early trading, and fell back in the afternoon, with the price closing down 0.37% on the market, and the trading was active. In terms of funds, since April, the technology market has fluctuated downward, and funds have been actively deployed, and technology ETF (515000) has been attracting gold at high frequency, and has received a net inflow of funds in 8 of the past 10 days!

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image Credit: Snowball

From the perspective of the leading technology leader, Straight Flush is rumored to cooperate with the concept of manipulating the stock price, but in response to this, Straight Flush responded that it has not received a regulatory notice recently, thinking that this is a rumor, and in terms of market, the share price of Straight Flush has dived and fallen for two consecutive days. From the perspective of good technology, the performance of many chip stocks is expected to increase, and the rebound of the CPO concept may become a boost. Long and short are intertwined, how will the leading technology sector go next?

1. The performance of chip stocks is strong, and the net profit of Jingchen shares is expected to increase by 310% year-on-year

On the news side, a number of chip companies have recently released first-quarter performance announcements, and many of them are expected to increase their performance. Among them, Jingchen announced that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company of about 125 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 310%.

In terms of industry, according to SIA data, the global semiconductor industry sales totaled $46.2 billion in February 2024, an increase of 16.3% compared to a total of $39.7 billion in February 2023. So far, since November 2023, global semiconductor sales have seen positive year-on-year growth for four consecutive months.

Tianfeng Securities said that the semiconductor cycle is expected to start recovery in 2024, and it is optimistic that AI will promote the upward movement of the semiconductor cycle. In terms of industry inventory, it is expected that H1 will return to the normal level, and AI-driven links may have the momentum to replenish the inventory. On the production capacity side, the expansion tends to be rational, and the new demand is popularized or the expansion progress is accelerated. On the price side, the price of electronic products represented by storage began to rise, and market confidence was gradually established. On the demand side, AIGC iterated rapidly, and the direction of demand-side innovation was established.

2. The demand for AI computing power has soared, and the concept of CPO has rebounded

Externally, technology stocks led the market rebound, and Nvidia, the global leader in AI computing power, rose more than 4%, boosting the A-share computing power industry chain. The CPO concept took the lead in rebounding, and related leading stocks hit new highs intraday. In terms of industry, large models at home and abroad continue to be launched and iterated, and with the continuous expansion of AI application scenarios, the requirements for computing power are also rising.

Recently, the latest research report of CITIC Securities pointed out that the latest product GB200 recently released by NVIDIA on the GTC2024, the server and switch port rate has doubled, which is expected to promote the demand upgrade of AI optical modules from the 800G generation to the 1.6T generation. The agency emphasized that with the rapid development of AI and data centers, optical modules are key components of high-speed interconnection, and the speed of technology iteration is key.

3. The valuation of technology leaders has fallen, and the sector may have long-term allocation value

From the perspective of valuation, as of April 12, the PE dynamic valuation of the CSI Technology Leading Index was 33.26 times, and it is currently at the historical quantile of 18.43% in the past five years, which is significantly lower than the historical high. Combined with the policy support of the sector and the expectation of prosperity recovery, the sector may still have long-term allocation value. One-click configuration of technology leaders, it is recommended to pay attention to technology ETFs (trading code: 515000.SH, connection A: 007873.OF, connection C: 007874.OF).

Gold is bullish, non-ferrous leading ETF (159876) has risen four times against the market, and the underlying index has risen by more than 42%!

Image source: Wind

According to the data, the technology ETF (515000) tracks the CSI Technology Leading Index, which selects 50 listed companies with large scale, high market share, strong growth ability and high R&D investment from the electronics, computer, communications, biotechnology and other technology fields in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, and concentrates on representing the core assets of A-share technology. The risk-return characteristics are more balanced than those of other single technology tracks.

Pictures and data sources: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Huabao Fund, Wind, etc., as of 2024.4.12.

Note: The rise and fall of CSI Nonferrous Metals Index in the past five complete years are: 24.48% in 2019, 35.84% in 2020, 35.89% in 2021, -19.22% in 2022, and -10.43% in 2023.

Risk Warning: Nonferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876) passively tracks CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708.CSI) with a base date of 2013.12.31 and a release date of 2015.7.13, and a technology ETF passively tracks CSI Technology Leading Index with a base date of 2012.6.29 and was released on 2019.3.20. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted in accordance with the rules of the index, and its backtested historical performance is not indicative of the future performance of the index. The individual stocks mentioned in the article are only objectively displayed and enumerated as index constituent stocks, and are not recommended as any individual stocks, and do not represent the fund manager and fund investment direction. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors shall be responsible for any investment behavior determined independently. In addition, any opinions, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to the reader, and the company shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Investors should carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus, Fund Product Key Facts Statement and other legal documents of the fund, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, and choose products that are suitable for their own risk tolerance. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund. According to the assessment of the fund manager, the non-ferrous leading ETF and technology ETF are rated R3-medium risk, suitable for investors with balanced (C3) and above, and the suitability matching opinion is subject to the sales agency. Investors should pay attention to the suitability opinions issued by the fund managers in a timely manner when the distribution agencies (including fund managers, direct sales agencies and other sales agencies) conduct risk assessments of the above funds in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, and the opinions of each sales agency on the suitability are not necessarily the same, and the risk rating evaluation results of fund products issued by fund distribution agencies shall not be lower than the risk rating evaluation results made by fund managers. The risk-return characteristics of the fund and the risk level of the fund in the fund contract are different due to different factors to be considered. Investors should understand the risk and return of the fund, carefully select fund products based on their own investment objectives, horizon, investment experience and risk tolerance, and bear their own risks. The registration of the above funds by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made substantive judgments or guarantees on the investment value, market prospects and returns of the funds. Caution should be exercised when investing in funds.

The above content and data have nothing to do with the position of the interface and do not constitute investment advice. Do so at your own risk.

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