laitimes

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

author:Lao Jiang said agriculture
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the latest information: from October 2023 to September 2024, China's corn supply and demand report (forecast), with a total sown area of 44,219 thousand hectares, a total output of 288.84 million tons, a total consumption of 295 million tons, a total balance of 13.83 million tons, and an average price of 2150~2350 yuan/ton of imported corn after tax, and an expected import of 20 million tons (an increase of 2.5 million tons). The amount of imported corn is expected to enter the market for circulation is limited, and the number of imports will decline significantly in the later period.
Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

Dear comrades, if you read the description of this text, how will you understand it?

However, we must not forget one thing: the culture of our great Chinese nation is the most "broad and profound." Notice the words in the text: forecast, anticipation, and anticipation – if you really understand it, you really understand it.

If you don't understand, please dig out the "Xinhua Dictionary" to check the explanation and meaning of these words, otherwise it will only be "the same cloud".

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

Hello friends, today is April 12, 2024, the North China corn market is really ice and fire, the purchase price of golden corn in Mengzhou, Henan has fallen to 1.1 yuan, such a price is the price at which our farmers in Jilin sell natural dry wool grain, the same farmers, why is the price gap so big?

Henan deep processing fell "sparse", Shandong's deep processing has rarely risen in price enterprises, Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical: up 5 percent, the purchase price of 1.144 yuan, Shandong Linqing Dejin corn: up 3 percent, the purchase price of 1.142 yuan.

It turned out that the car couldn't stop the car, and it fell too sharply, and it was already lower than the mainstream purchase price, so it had to rise back! Otherwise, how could it attract leeks, wouldn't it?

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

The whole market is saying that the price of corn is in the end, but why should it fall? This analysis, that analysis, and then dismantling and applying the word "emotion" that I often use is really "ridiculous and generous."

What kind of "bullshit" emotion is used to analyze the current market, you think it's wheat!

In fact, one point can explain the problem: before the North China traders did not expect the corn market, no one dared to buy a large number of inventory, farmers did not recognize the price, so they did not sell grain, superimposed on the resonance of the habit of selling grain, resulting in a decrease in the supply of corn, so the price of corn was relatively firm.

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

In the blink of an eye, after the Spring Festival, traders thought that the price had reached a low point and began to make inventory, but found that after the harvest, there was still a surplus of grain at the grassroots level, and the silver was almost spent, and they could not see the hope of price increases, so they began to sell grain one after another, and the more they sold, the more the price fell.

Farmers also followed to sell grain, forming a very obvious market situation of "supply exceeding demand", so corn has plummeted at present.

It's as simple as that, don't take my article to "wash the draft" and then rephrase it in the crepe text, isn't it interesting?

Personally, I think that the current time point is the time point for North China traders to open a position, because when most people flee, when most people are afraid, it is the relative low point of the price, otherwise it is very easy to miss if you want to find another opportunity.

It is similar to the corn before the Spring Festival in the Northeast, the more panicked and unoptimistic the short-term time point, the more you have to purchase a large number of them, and then wait for a wave of rebound to realize profits. Otherwise, when you think it's time to build inventory, others will also see that the price will be low?—— personal opinion, does not represent correct.

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

On the other hand, the Northeast corn market, the "crotch" of corn futures in the past few days, directly put the port into a daze, either stop collecting, or drop the price, even if the purchase is limited to 14.5 moisture corn, although some companies did not report the price, but directly with you to play a stop acquisition.

In the face of a weak market, some people shouted that there would be a 100 yuan drop space, which is simply not to take corn and not to use corn, because the reality will give you a "five-finger fan". Last night, the futures directly reversed against the trend, what does it mean? The bottom line of corn cannot be touched.

Even if there is room for a decline, that is, a few tens of yuan, the ability to fall sharply is limited and cannot be seen.

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

While the port is falling in price, while increasing storage in the new storage point, while deep processing continues to increase in price, this is not, the new acquisition of storage points in Jilin began to "gong and drum" began to buy.

Jilin Fuyu COFCO Trade: 14.5 moisture 2275 yuan;

Jilin Siping directly under the Kubeishan Branch: first-class 14 moisture 2340 yuan;

Jilin Nong'an directly under the library pot branch began to purchase corn: 14 moisture second class 2320 yuan;

Jilin Jilin Branch Baishan direct warehouse: 14 water first class 2340 yuan, second class 2320 yuan;

Jilin Changchun Datun Huitong Warehouse: 730 bulk density, 14 moisture, toxins do not exceed the standard, the purchase price is 2300 yuan.

The most fundamental reason why traders are uncomfortable at present is not that the price of corn has fallen, but that there is no silver in their hands now. If you want to buy natural dried corn at a low price, you feel "powerless", what should you do? You can only sell it, and this concentrated sale will naturally lead to an imbalance between supply and demand, which will lead to a weak price.

At this time, traders with abundant funds in their hands are "going all out" to bow their heads and strive to buy, because, in another half a month, it is even more difficult to receive a large amount of natural dry corn.

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

This year, the market in Northeast China is basically a market for 15~20 days, and after falling for 15~20 days, there will be a wave of rise in May, and this wave of rise is the opportunity and time for you to sell grain, including farmers and friends, you must seize the opportunity -- the opportunity must not be missed, and the loss will not come again. This is the point, the verification of the waiting time.

At the same time, the continuous balance in the first half of the year made every trader "exhausted", but everyone should not forget that this is the market that the big brother behind us wants to see the most, or the saying "ensure supply + stabilize price".

And the biggest and most deadly expectation and operation of every trader: save the grain and want to see the price increase immediately, and then cash in the profit, your idea is exactly contrary to the big brother, so you will be very uncomfortable, so, you will be full of complaints. Is it this reason?—— without some cold bones, how can the plum blossoms be fragrant. (Personal opinion, for reference only, does not represent correct, all nonsense)

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

The latest corn prices in the country on April 14, 2024

Shanxi Yingke Jiarui Agriculture: 14 moisture 2360 yuan.

Henan Jin Yufeng: 1.16 yuan, down 5 percent.

Henan Mengzhou Golden Corn: 1.1 yuan, down 5 cents.

Henan Feitian starch: 1.115 yuan, down 5 cents.

河北玉锋:1.142元,落3厘.

Shandong Hongan Food: 1.14 yuan, down 5 percent.

Shandong Xiangrui Pharmaceutical: 1.144 yuan, up 5%.

Shandong Rice Energy Biology: 1.147 yuan, down 3 percent.

Shandong Leling Middle Valley: 1.157 yuan, down 3 cents.

山东七星柠檬:1.179元,落5厘。

Shandong Qingyuan Food: 1.162 yuan, down 3 cents.

Shandong Bowling Bao Biological: 1.15 yuan, down 2 percent.

Shandong Beidahuang Sheep Warehouse: 1.185 yuan, up 5%.

Shandong Linqing Dejin corn: 1.142 yuan, up 3%.

Shandong Rice Energy Biology: 1.147 yuan, 1.142 yuan for super 17 moisture, 3 cents.

Shandong Yishui land: 1.165 yuan, down 2%. The first drop price.

Shandong Yishui land: 1.163 yuan, down 2%. The second drop price. A total of 4 percent.

Corn will be "nine deaths" this time? April 13, 2024 corn market

Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.175 yuan, down 2 cents. The first drop price.

Shandong Zhucheng Yuanfa: 1.173 yuan, down 2 cents. The second drop price. A total of 4 percent.

Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.167 yuan, down 3%. The first drop price.

Shandong Weifang Shengtai Pharmaceutical: 1.165 yuan, down 2%. The second drop price. A total of 5 cents.

Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.178 yuan, Guyuku: 1.188 yuan, down 2 cents. The first drop price.

Shandong Zhucheng Xingmao: 1.176 yuan, Guyuku: 1.186 yuan, down 2 centimeters. The second drop price. A total of 4 percent.

Shandong Binzhou Jinhui: 1.158 yuan within 18 moisture, 1.153 yuan above 18 moisture, 2 centi. The first drop price.

Shandong Binzhou Jinhui: 1.155 yuan within 18 moisture, 1.15 yuan above 18 moisture, 3 cents. The second drop price. A total of 5 cents.

Inner Mongolia melted corn: 14 moisture 2340 yuan. up $40.

Inner Mongolia Hulunbuir Fufeng Biological: 1.145 yuan for 14 moisture in the first and second class, 1.14 yuan for 14 moisture in the third class, 1.051 yuan for 20 moisture, and 0.977 yuan for 25 moisture. Up 1 point.

Jilin Changchun Datun Huitong Warehouse: 730 bulk density, 14 moisture, toxins do not exceed the standard, the purchase price is 2300 yuan.

Jilin Fuyu COFCO Trade: dry grain 14.5 moisture 2275 yuan, 10 yuan, tide grain 14.5 moisture 1.1245 yuan, 15 moisture 1.118 yuan, 18 moisture 1.0792 yuan. up 5%.

Fufeng, Qiqihar, Heilongjiang: 1.145 yuan for 14 moisture in the first and second class, 1.14 yuan for 14 moisture in the third class, 1.051 yuan for 20 moisture, and 0.977 yuan for 25 moisture. up 5%.

Read on