Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

author:No. 1 Equity

#黄金价格持续上涨说明什么#最近黄金价格涨疯了, how crazy is it? On the morning of April 8, the price of Chow Tai Fook pure gold jewelry was still 712 yuan/gram, and it rose to 725 yuan/gram in the afternoon, an increase of 1.8% in just a few hours. Since March, the price of Chow Tai Fook gold jewelry has risen from 630 yuan/gram to 725 yuan/gram, an increase of 15%.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

The price of gold has risen sharply, and residents' enthusiasm for investment and consumption has risen, which in turn has boosted the price of gold. There will always be beneficiaries of price fluctuations, and who will benefit from the rise in gold prices?

1. People and businesses that sell gold

We take the house as a reference, because the house also has investment and consumption attributes, living by oneself is the consumption attribute, and waiting for appreciation is the investment attribute, gold also has these two attributes, and who will be the beneficiary when the house price rises? First of all, the people and enterprises that sell the house, such as the intermediary company that sells the house and the real estate company.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

Lao Fengxiang, China Gold, Chow Tai Fook and so on are all terminal gold sellers, they have a certain amount of gold reserves, but also from the upstream to buy gold, and then process into jewelry sales, to earn is the difference in the middle, the price of gold has risen, resulting in high enthusiasm for buying, sales have gone up, especially for its inventory, due to the low price of the previous purchase, now the terminal price has risen all of a sudden, then the price difference is naturally high.

The chart below is the stock price trend of Lao Fengxiang and China Gold, the trend of the last 4 months is basically the same, especially the price of the last 2 months are up year-on-year, the share price of China Gold has risen nearly 30% from the low point in February, and the price of Lao Fengxiang has risen by nearly 50% in the same period. The share price reflects expectations, and the price of gold rises, and the sales are not far behind.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

Taking 2023 as an example, the price of international gold London gold has risen by 13%, ending the two-year decline in 2021 and 2022, Lao Fengxiang's net profit in the first three quarters of last year increased by 45%, China Gold's net profit increased by 21% in the same period, and Chow Tai Fook's net profit increased by 36% in the same period.

Gold prices have risen even more sharply this year, and it has only been one quarter now, the price of London gold has risen by 13.8%, while the price of Chow Tai Fook's mainland gold jewelry has risen by 16.2% this year, and for these companies, the first quarter performance should look good.

After the sales situation, the stock price will not necessarily rise, such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang's share price peaked in mid-March, showing a downward trend, these two famous gold jewelry sales companies are listed in Hong Kong, Hong Kong's stock market is relatively more international vision, when our mainland residents are enthusiastic about gold consumption, how can the stock prices of the two gold jewelry sales companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market die down in advance?

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

2. People who produce gold

Gold grows in the ground and needs to be mined and refined from gold mines, and then processed into pure gold, or made into gold bars for investment, or processed into jewelry for consumption. Terminal prices are rising, and upstream dry gold mining and refining companies are certainly winners.

There are also several listed companies in the A-share market that mine and refine gold, and Shandong Gold, CICC Gold and Hengbang are all mainly engaged in gold mining.

Shandong Gold's revenue in 2023 will be 59.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and its net profit will increase by 87% year-on-year. CICC Gold's net profit is expected to rise by 45% last year. Zijin Mining also produced nearly 30 billion yuan of gold last year, which accounted for a small proportion of total revenue, but contributed more than a quarter of its net profit.

The following figure is the stock price trend of Shandong Gold, CICC Gold, Hengbang shares and Zijin Mining and other listed companies that mainly mine gold, and its stock price trend is highly synchronized, since February this year, the stock price has risen, Hengbang shares and Zijin Mining rose by about 50%, Shandong Gold and CICC Gold rose by about 60%. Its stock price increase is significantly higher than that of gold terminal sales companies.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

Gold as a bulk commodity, especially can not be mined in a large number of commodities in a short period of time, once the downstream price rises sharply, the upstream is more beneficial, because the supply is limited, this situation has also appeared in the photovoltaic field and the field of power batteries, when the sales of photovoltaic modules are very good, the production of upstream silicon rods will be more beneficial, and when the sales of power batteries are good, the upstream lithium mining and processing will also benefit more.

Who owns mines, who owns more gold, then at this time is the biggest beneficiary, in terms of national units, the top ten official gold reserves are as follows, the United States has the most official gold reserves, 8135 tons, accounting for 68.9% of its foreign exchange reserves, so this wave of gold price increases, the United States is the biggest beneficiary.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

In second place is Germany with 3,353t of official reserves, accounting for 68.2% of its foreign exchange reserves, followed by Italy with 2,452t of gold, accounting for 65.2% of its foreign exchange reserves. France ranked fourth, with 2,437 tonnes of gold in reserve, accounting for 66.9% of its foreign exchange reserves.

Russia ranks fifth, with 2,330 tonnes of gold reserves, or 25% of its foreign exchange reserves. China ranks sixth, with 2,092t gold reserves, accounting for just 3.9% of its foreign exchange reserves. However, China has been increasing its gold holdings recently, and by the end of 2023, its official gold reserves had increased to 2,235 tonnes, an increase of more than 100 tonnes in half a year.

3. The aunt who bought gold frantically 11 years ago benefited the most

From an international macro point of view, the developed countries in the West led by the United States have the most gold reserves, so they benefit the most from the rise in gold prices, but from our domestic point of view, in fact, the most benefited group is the Chinese aunts who bought gold 11 years ago.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

From 2004 to 2011, international gold came out of a rare bull market, London gold rose from $400 to $1,900 per ounce, up 375% in 7 years, with an average annual increase of more than 20%, so it rose crazy at the last time, and in the last year, it rose as much as 60%.

In the past five months, the price of London gold has continued to stand above $1,900 per ounce, which means that if you look at the price of London gold, it is not until recent months that the aunts who were trapped on the top of the mountain more than ten years ago have ushered in the unwrapping.

If calculated based on the price of Chow Tai Fook's gold bars, the highest gold price reached 460 yuan/gram 11 years ago, and the lowest fell to 270 yuan/gram in 2015, a decline of 40%, and it took more than ten years to return to the peak.

Compared with making money, the happiness brought by unwrapping is much greater, and the feeling of powerlessness and despair after the deep trap cannot be relieved for a long time, and only by unwrapping can you sweep away the gloom and show a smile.

This time, the price of gold has risen wildly again, and then hit a new high, if calculated from the low point in 2015, this time gold has been rising for nearly 9 years, an increase of 130%, and some people say that the price will rise to $3,000 / ounce.

Gold prices have soared, who has benefited the most?

I'm always very jealous of things that go crazy, and even a little scared, crazy house prices, and finally fell, crazy all kinds of currencies, still fell, crazy stock market, and finally fell, crazy things don't fall, gold will be an exception this time?

The biggest difficulty in investment is that you can't be accurate to the time point, you know that after the crazy rise will return to common sense, the difficulty is that you don't know the exact time when the inflection point will come, in fact, the same is true after the big fall, you also know that the price of valuable things will not fall indefinitely, but you don't know where the specific inflection point is.

This year's surge, will it trap another group of people?

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