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The Shanghai Composite Index has just returned to 3,000 points, can it continue to attack?

The Shanghai Composite Index has just returned to 3,000 points, can it continue to attack?

The Shanghai Composite Index has just returned to 3,000 points, can it continue to attack?

After two months, the Shanghai Composite Index has just returned to 3,000 points, and it is heading towards "Balianyang"

March. As of press time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to 3,000.12 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.10% to 9,052.80 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.01% to 1,757.78 points.

The Shanghai Composite Index has just returned to 3,000 points, can it continue to attack?

Source: Wind

How to get around after that?

3000 points has always been an important psychological threshold in the hearts of shareholders, after recovering 3000 points, will A-shares continue to attack or range-bound?

"In the past 6 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has been running below 3,000 points in the bear market under the impact of the trade war from June 2018 to January 2019.1, so the 3,000 index has also become a guide for the bull and bear divide. ”

Qu Yiping, head of the total group and chief analyst of Oriental Wealth Securities, said that the market still needs more positive factors after the recovery of 3,000 points, and the real estate sales data in January continued to fall short of expectations, and more policies are still needed to reverse the downward trend in real estate. The repair of market valuation depends on the repair of all A profits, and the financial performance of all A in the annual report quarter is still the core benchmark.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that the long-short divergence near 3,000 points may still lead to recurrence.

However, in the case that the general trend has been gradually established, there is still room for upward expansion.

Qu Yiping believes that the next market trend may replicate the 2016-2017 blue-chip strength, and the main line is expected to focus on the central state-owned enterprise sector after the market value management framework of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

T+0 refocus

Since Wu Qing assumed the post of chairman of the CSRC on February 7, the CSRC's policy actions to maintain market stability have been frequent, and T+0 has once again become a hot topic in the market. Some experts have also proposed that large-cap blue chips can be released first, what does the industry think about this?

Zhang Cuixia said that if you want T+0, you should be T+0 in the whole market, and the so-called idea of piloting blue chips and the Beijing Stock Exchange in the market is not particularly ideal and in place.

Yang Delong said that if it can be liberalized, it is also an important reform measure, which can indeed play a role in activating market transactions, and it is also a practice in line with the international capital market.

"Judging from the decline in the past year or so, it has little to do with T+0", Zhang Cuixia believes that it is more because of the problems of fraudulent issuance, high-premium issuance, short selling of securities lending, and ultra-high frequency trading in the market, which have led to the impact and release of market risks.

Qu Yiping also pointed out to the "V View Financial Report" that it is debatable whether the T+0 rule is suitable for the current A-share market from a certain perspective.

He introduced that at the end of 1992, A-shares had piloted T+0, and there was a short-term sharp rise in the market, and the market fell sharply after changing back to T+1 in early 1995. If the promulgation of T+0 increases market speculation and volatility, it is actually contrary to the current demands of the CSRC. Moreover, the total number of A-shares has reached 5,107, and T+0 is more conducive to quantitative funds from a certain perspective, no longer limited by the source of securities borrowing and lending, and bringing stronger convergent trading behavior. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) recently said that a series of quantitative trading regulatory measures will mature one by one, and it is more necessary to keep market transactions relatively stable rather than greatly innovating.

Yang Delong suggested that investors should not trade frequently even if they let go of T+0, as it is easy to lose money.

(The views in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.) )

The cover and guide diagram are from Baotu.com

Author | Fu Jianqing  

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Zhang Shunan

Intern Li Jinjing

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Jia Yifu

The Shanghai Composite Index has just returned to 3,000 points, can it continue to attack?

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(min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme: dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),,body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .. 15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-FIRE: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;-- weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);-weui-tag-background-red: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, ..) 1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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#1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .) 6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 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