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U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street is starting to get anxious?

According to Phoenix News, on February 13, the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. consumer price index rose 3.1% year-on-year in January, much higher than the Fed's long-term inflation target of 2% and higher than the consensus expectation of 2.9%.

With the release of the data, Wall Street was completely panicked, which not only means that the previous Fed's strategy of raising interest rates to fight inflation has failed, but also that the interest rate cut that the capital market is in mind will fall through again.

 In other words, this is undoubtedly a "bolt from the blue" for the global capital market.

   As we all know, since 2020, when the United States started the "flooding" mode, its inflation rate has repeatedly reached new highs, and as of June 2022, the inflation rate in the United States has soared to 9.1%, a 40-year high.

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

So far, the Fed has raised interest rates 10 times, with a cumulative rate hike of more than 500 basis points, and the federal benchmark interest rate has soared from the range of 0~0.25% to the range of 5.25%~5.5%.    

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

The frenzied interest rate hikes have indeed lowered inflation, but the soaring cost of financing has made global capital markets "miserable".

Earlier, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in an interview that the goal of this round of Fed interest rate hikes is to keep US inflation within 2%.

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

With the goal on the horizon, Wall Street's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates are growing.

However, the US CPI data for January undoubtedly "poured cold water" on Wall Street.    

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

According to the Fed Watch tool, the market expects the Fed's first rate cut to occur more likely to occur in June, with a 53.7% probability, while the probability of a rate cut in March has plummeted to 10% from 55% a month ago.

In other words, Wall Street's illusions that the Fed had expected a rate cut in March or May have been shattered again.

However, at the juncture when everyone's expectations for interest rate cuts were disappointed, some people sounded the clarion call for "interest rate hike".

On February 16, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers, a whistleblower on high inflation in the United States, warned in an interview that the Fed's next step is likely to be to raise interest rates rather than cut them, with a probability of 15%.    

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

In other words, he thinks the Fed may have to raise interest rates next.

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

In fact, it's not just Summers who thinks so, a number of Wall Street investment banks have recently made investors wary of the risk of Fed interest rate hikes, and analysts at Société Générale believe that the Fed has "no reason to rush" to cut interest rates, and if the US economy re-accelerates, then the Fed's next interest rate decision may be a rate hike rather than a cut.

In addition, a research report released by British asset management giant Jupiter Asset Management showed that there is a 20% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates rather than cut them, and they believe that strong consumer demand and the prospect that companies may increase spending may exacerbate inflation again.

With the impact of the US January CPI data and the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut to fall short again, the global capital market has once again seen a "commotion".

According to relevant data, at the close of trading on Friday, the U.S. stock market stepped on the "hard brakes", with the Dow Jones down 0.38%, the S&P 500 down 0.48%, and the Nasdaq down 0.82%.

Although the decline is modest, each decline in the US stock market is seen as the beginning of a new downward cycle.

U.S. inflation data rebounded strongly, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, and Wall Street began to be anxious

In addition, affected by the January CPI data, the international gold price fell below the price of $2,000 / ounce again, as of February 16, London spot gold latest closed at $1,991 / ounce, and the COMEX gold price fell to about $2,004 / ounce.

Think about it, if the US CPI data continues to be higher than market expectations, then the Fed will really be "lacking in skills", and perhaps the boots of "raising interest rates" are really about to land.    

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dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){-appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}.rich_media_content p{clear:both; min-height:1em}td p{margin:0; padding:0}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]) .rich_media_content img:not(.wx_img_placeholder){filter:brightness(.8)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) :root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}}:root{--articleFontsize: 17px}:root{--sab: env(safe-area-inset-bottom)}:root{--wxBorderAvatarRatio: 3}:root{--discussPageGap: 20px}:root{--immersive-safe-bottom: env(safe-area-input-bottom)}: root{--appmsgPageGap: 20px;--appmsgPageBottomGap: 40px}*{margin:0; padding:0}.rich_media_content *{max-width:100%!important; box-sizing:border-box!important;-webkit-box-sizing:border-box!important; word-wrap:break-word!important}

div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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