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The first blow of the Year of the Dragon started! A shares, the first battle was won

The first blow of the Year of the Dragon started! A shares, the first battle was won

The first blow of the Year of the Dragon started! A shares, the first battle was won

On the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, the first battle of A-shares was won.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.56% and successfully stood above the important mark of 2,900 points. On the disk, there are more than 200 stocks in the whole market, and the theme stocks are quite active, and Sora leads the whole market. Multimodal AI rose 11.11% on market software, 10.3% in the education sector, 6.63% in the culture and media, and 6.6% in the game sector.

First, there are new technological changes in the field of AI

On February 16, 2024, OpenAI announced the launch of a new generative AI model "Sora", which is characterized by accepting input prompts for text, pictures, and videos, and is able to create 1080P HD videos of up to 60 seconds based on images or supplement existing videos.

The emergence of SORA is equivalent to a revolution in the video field, which means that the original high video production costs are now greatly reduced, which is a major benefit for film and television, games and other enterprises.

It has been a year since the emergence of ChatGPT and now Sora, and each time it is a major change affecting humanity. ChatGPT is mainly a major change in the field of graphics and text, while Sora is a major change in the field of video.

ChatGPT just came out, related concept stocks are undoubtedly the most popular sector of A-shares, and the ChatGPT concept plate on a market software has risen by as much as 21.92% in the past four trading days, and then ushered in the second and third stages of hot speculation.

The emergence of Sora and related concept stocks seem to be repeating the hype enthusiasm of ChatGPT. Sora's beneficiary sectors are mainly games, film and television, advertising, education and other industries.

In the game industry, Sora's technology can be used to quickly generate in-game scenes and animations, which will not only make the game experience more immersive and diverse, but also greatly reduce the time and labor costs.

In the film and television industry, editing, special effects and post-production work, which used to require a lot of manual processing, have been replaced by Sora, which is also a significant reduction in costs and an increase in experience from the perspective of film and television companies.

Due to the relatively full adjustment of the game industry and the film and television industry some time ago, under the new changes in AI technology, Sora is expected to replicate the hot enthusiasm of ChatGPT. Today, the game ETF (516010) rose 7.66% and the film and television ETF (516620) rose 3.78%, both of which can be used as the targets of the next key layout.

Second, the macro situation of A-shares is showing positive changes

First, according to recent data released by the central bank, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the balance of narrow money (M1) increased by 5.9% year-on-year.

The first blow of the Year of the Dragon started! A shares, the first battle was won

The growth rate of M1 rebounded sharply, and the scissor gap between M1 and M2 narrowed sharply. M1 is mainly corporate demand deposits, and M2 also has resident savings deposits in addition to corporate demand deposits. In other words, M1 is more current and M2 is more regular.

If the growth rate of current money in the market is getting faster and the regular money is slowing down, it means that more and more money from enterprises and residents is used in the fields of consumption and investment, and the activity of the stock market, property market and the real economy will increase significantly.

Next, if M2 is increasing, and the scissors gap between M1 and M2 continues to narrow, then the stabilization and rebound of A-shares can basically be corroborated.

Second, there is a high probability of an interest rate cut tomorrow (February 20) (LPR cut).

Yesterday (February 19), the Financial Times, the media in charge of the central bank, published an article mentioning that the loan market prime rate (LPR) may fall in two days, and the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years is more likely to fall.

This means that there is a high probability that the LPR will be lowered tomorrow. The central bank's media chose to release this information before the A-share market opened, obviously to protect the market and appease the market, hoping to give positive energy at the critical moment when the A-share market stabilized.

It can be seen that there are positive changes in A-shares in terms of both market and policy in the near future, which lays a solid foundation for the rebound of A-shares in 2024.

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