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After the Spring Festival, the Fed may not cut interest rates again this year

After the Spring Festival, the Fed may not cut interest rates again this year

It is not without precedent for markets to prejudge the Fed's policy pivot.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on February 13 showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in January significantly exceeded market expectations, and the bond and stock markets suffered a heavy setback. Following the release of the inflation data, the market sharply lowered its expectations for the Fed to cut rates this year, and the Fed is now expected to cut rates by about 25 basis points each time this year (the current target range for the federal funds rate is between 5.25% and 5.5%). 

After the Spring Festival, the Fed may not cut interest rates again this year

These expectations are broadly in line with those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in its Summary of Economic Projections released at its December meeting, which projected the median federal funds rate at 4.6% by the end of 2024. However, as recently as late January, the futures market priced in at least six Fed rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points. 

One of the more surprising possibilities is that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year, and that shouldn't be ruled out, as there have been cases in the past where forecasts have failed to materialize, including Bloomberg Economics' October 2022 prediction of a 100% chance of a recession in the U.S. economy in 2023. 

At the top end of the target range for the federal funds rate

After the Spring Festival, the Fed may not cut interest rates again this year

A team of U.S. economists at Deutsche Bank, led by Matthew Luzzetti, recently proposed two scenarios that could prompt the Fed to "stand still" in 2024, writing in a research report: "The likelihood that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year is not small. ” 

No rate cuts is not Deutsche Bank's base case, which expects the Fed to start cutting rates in June and cut rates four times this year, each by 25 basis points. 

Economists at Deutsche Bank discussed two possible scenarios that differ from the FOMC's "median scenarios" and could prompt the FOMC to adopt a "hawkish" stance: a 4% U.S. unemployment rate at the end of 2024, slightly lower than the FOMC's forecast of 4.1%, and a smaller slowdown in inflation than the FOMC's forecast, with the core PCE price index rising 2.7% year-on-year at the end of 2024, higher than the FOMC's forecast of 2.4%. 

In the first scenario, which could prompt the FOMC to adopt a "hawkish" stance, economists assume that the FOMC will maintain its estimate of R-star (the inflation-adjusted "neutral" federal funds rate that neither boosts nor slows growth) at 0.5%, and in the other scenario that could prompt the FOMC to adopt a more "hawkish" stance, economists assume that the FOMC will raise the R-star to 1.5%. 

The first scenario implies a 65 basis point cut in the federal funds rate this year, or 20 basis points less than the median FOMC forecast. The second scenario implies a rate cut of less than 20 basis points this year, or no rate cut.

Jawad Mian, founder of Stray Reflections, a macro advisory firm for institutional investors, recently pointed out that in the period after the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the market repeatedly prematurely digested expectations of the Fed's rate hikes, and it turned out that the Fed did not start raising rates gradually until December 2015. 

Therefore, it is not without precedent for the market to prejudge the Fed's policy pivot this time. 

文 | 兰德尔· W·福赛斯

Edit | Guo Liqun

Copyright Notice:

《巴伦周刊》(barronschina)原创文章,未经许可,不得转载。 英文版见2024年2月16日报道“No Interest-Rate Cuts in 2024? Why That’s More Likely Than You’d Think.”。

(The content of this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any form of investment and financial advice; the market is risky and investment should be cautious.) )

#市场分析

After the Spring Festival, the Fed may not cut interest rates again this year

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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