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Hong Kong stocks opened in the Year of the Dragon, and A-shares are expected to replicate the four strong sectors

Hong Kong stocks opened in the Year of the Dragon, and A-shares are expected to replicate the four strong sectors

Every reporter: Peng Shuiping Every editor: Ye Feng

The 2024 Spring Festival holiday has ended. During the A-share market closure, Hong Kong stocks opened for 3 trading days in the Year of the Dragon, and they were happy to mention "three consecutive rises".

As of the close of trading on February 16 (Friday), Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 2.48% to 16,339.96 points, up 3.77% in three trading days, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 3.71% to 3,342.73 points, up 6.89% in three trading days, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.73% to 5,558.86 points, up 4.78% in three trading days. In terms of focus stocks, WuXi Biologics rose 12.06%, Longfor Group rose 10.22%, and ENN Energy rose 9.33%, leading the blue-chip gains.

For the "three consecutive rises" of Hong Kong stocks in the Year of the Dragon, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the main reason is that it has been driven by many favorable policies, and the continuous rise of the A-share market before the Spring Festival holiday has led to a rebound in the sentiment of the entire market. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the market ushered in a series of favorable policies, the market was not extremely Tailai, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks bottomed out and rebounded, and rose together.

The A-share market opens on February 19 (Monday), can it continue the positive changes at the beginning of the Year of the Dragon together with Hong Kong stocks? Can the sectors with strong performance of Hong Kong stocks in the past three trading days be replicated in the relevant sectors of A-shares?

Hong Kong stocks opened in the Year of the Dragon, and A-shares are expected to replicate the four strong sectors

On 14 February 2024, HKEX held the opening ceremony of the first trading day of the Lunar New Year at the Hong Kong Financial City Hall

Film and television concept holiday pulls up

Looking ahead to the Hong Kong stock market in 2024, fund managers have also become relatively optimistic. Zhang Feng, fund manager of Wells Fargo China's small and medium-cap market, believes that the first quarter of 2024 is basically a state of waiting for the Hong Kong stock market to come to a negative state, Hong Kong stocks have low valuations and have experienced a long period of decline, and some negative factors have also been relatively fully reflected, and the main challenge at present is that it takes time to wait for the policy to be implemented and produce results. In addition, a potential U.S. recession is also a boot that has not landed.

The industry generally believes that after a long period of decline, Hong Kong stocks currently have a high margin of safety, especially in the expectation of improved liquidity, Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a double-click market of earnings and valuation repair.

If the "three consecutive rises" of Hong Kong stocks last week have linkage factors with A-shares before the Spring Festival holiday, then from the perspective of popular sectors, the strong sectors of Hong Kong stocks in the past three trading days, accompanied by new information feedback, are likely to be replicated in A-shares?

Affected by the hot sales of the Spring Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks of film and television concepts continued to rise, with China Literature Group rising by more than 17% in the past three trading days, followed by Straw Bear Entertainment, Lehua Entertainment, Maoyan Entertainment, and Alibaba Pictures.

According to the latest data from Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 13:33 on February 17, the total box office of the Spring Festival holiday stalls in 2024 reached 7.826 billion yuan, breaking the box office record of 7.825 billion yuan set by the Spring Festival holiday stalls in 2021. "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2" and "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" temporarily ranked the top three in the box office list. According to public information, Xinli Media, a subsidiary of China Literature Group, is an important investor in "Hot and Hot".

The Year of the Dragon of Hong Kong stocks has taken the lead in tapping China Literature, and relatively speaking, the A-share targets that benefit from the hot sale during the Spring Festival holiday are likely to be mined by various funds.

Bottom-buying funds support technology

On February 16, GDS surged 14.42%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% since the beginning of the Dragon, Zhongan Online rose 10.43%, and Ping An Good Doctor rose 10.30%, leading the rise of the Hang Seng Technology Index constituents. In addition, a number of chip, AI (artificial intelligence) and new energy vehicle related stocks rose sharply. Shanghai Fudan rose 8.22%, Kingsoft rose 7.84%, SenseTime rose 6.25%, Xpeng Motors rose 5.93%, Li Auto rose 5.76%, and BYD Electronics rose 5.28%.

In the accelerated bottoming market at the end of 2023, most of the Hong Kong technology stocks fell into a deep adjustment, while long-term funds such as public funds took the opportunity to increase their positions.

According to the research report of Haitong Securities, in the fourth quarter of 2023, public funds will mainly increase their positions in the artificial intelligence, biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors in Hong Kong stocks. Among them, the artificial intelligence sector focused on adding positions in Kingdee International and China Literature, the biotechnology sector focused on Akeso Biotech and GenScript Biotech, and the new energy vehicle sector focused on adding Great Wall Motor and Li Auto-W.

Wind data shows that 43 funds in the whole market have increased their positions in Kingdee International in the fourth quarter of 2023, including E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Growth managed by Chen Hao, Harvest Frontier Technology managed by Wang Guizhong and other products.

Wang Guizhong said that he is optimistic about the direction of artificial intelligence and digitalization in the long term, and this round of AIGC (generative artificial intelligence) will also deeply affect the software industry and accelerate the digital process, and the current valuation of the sector is still at a historically low level.

Medical and biomedical rose

According to the observation of the reporter of "Daily Economic News", on February 16, the medical industry, which had been falling continuously, rebounded strongly, with Minimally Invasive Medical rising 24.27%, up 22% in three trading days, and Spire Health rising about 21% in the week.

For the biomedical and medical sectors, there are two main factors in the industry analysis. First, the bearish digestion and the over-falling rebound. The continuous decline in the pharmaceutical and medical sector was caused by multiple negative factors, and now the relevant negative is either refuted or digested by the market. In this context, the panic selling caused by excessive pessimism also has the operational demand to take advantage of the market recovery to cover the operation. Second, the fundamentals and policies of the industry are good. Since 2023, multiple departments have successively introduced relevant policies to promote the combination of medical insurance and commercial insurance, which is a very important factor for the development of pharmaceutical innovation.

Sun Yuanyuan, chief of Industrial Medicine, said in a live broadcast recently that the open source of commercial insurance and the smaller price reduction of medical insurance mean that the insurance level is constantly optimizing the pattern, which will further expand the payment side and bring more incremental demand to the pharmaceutical industry.

Sun Yuanyuan believes that mainland pharmaceutical companies have bright spots in international transactions, especially in emerging technologies, emerging targets, differentiated layouts, and biomedical technologies with early layout. In the future, there will be more breakthroughs in the field of some precision manufacturing high-end equipment, and innovative devices will also be accelerated.

Liquor is strong in the peak consumption season

The Spring Festival is the peak season for liquor consumption, and the liquor sector of Hong Kong stocks took the lead in strengthening. Zhenjiu Li Du surged 17.03% on February 16 to close at HK$8.66, with the highest increase of 21.89%. According to Wind information, the liquor sector index rose 16.57%, and the domestic retail index rose 8.58%, leading the rise of various concept sector indexes.

For the spring market of liquor stocks, brokerages have long expected it. The research report of Zheshang Securities pointed out that the peak season of terminal sales during the Spring Festival is coming, and the feedback of terminal cigarette hotels in various places is gradually improving, and the peak is slightly delayed compared with previous years. Considering the outstanding performance of the Spring Festival transportation data in 2024, the coming tide of returning to the hometown may be expected to boost the sales of terminal liquor.

Zheshang Securities said that the liquor sector has both offense and defense, and in the context of the current RRR cut + targeted interest rate cut, it is optimistic about the good opportunities for the allocation of the liquor sector under the catalyst of the rebound and the Spring Festival dynamic sales, taking into account fundamental thinking and trading thinking, and the two leading liquor sectors are the first to be launched at the bottom;

On February 16, Sun Art Retail rose 10.26%, China Resources Beer rose 9.14%, Zhou Heiya rose 8.19%, and Mengniu Dairy rose 7.44%.

During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic consumption data continued to improve. According to data released by Tongcheng Travel, from the first day to the fourth day of the Lunar New Year in 2024, the number of hotel bookings in major counties across the country increased by more than 120% year-on-year. In terms of airport shipping, in the first nine days of the Spring Festival, civil aviation passenger traffic increased by double digits compared with 2019, taking the lead in hitting a record high.

National Business Daily

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