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Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

On December 4, the market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and the three major indexes all fell slightly.

In terms of sectors, gold, pork, short dramas, Heilongjiang Free Trade Zone and other sectors were among the top gainers, while CRO, genetically modified, composite current collectors, liquor concepts and other sectors were among the top decliners.

Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 2,700 stocks fell in the whole market. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today was 851.2 billion, an increase of 17.1 billion from the previous trading day. Northbound funds sold a net of 1.441 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 398 million yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 1.043 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Although the index closed in the green, today's market is actually somewhat similar to last Friday. Like what:

There was a wave of continuous pull-up in the afternoon;

All of them are heavyweights under some pressure, but small-cap stocks are doing well;

The most important detail is that the Chinese characters are well walked.

The reason is that "Guoxin Investment" bought some central enterprise technology index funds (ETFs) last Friday, and said that it would continue to buy.

There was also news over the weekend that Guoxin "will continue to increase its holdings every day this week".

Whether Guoxin bought it today or not, it is not very obvious in the intraday, because there may be funds to follow the trend to buy, so it needs to be subject to the company's announcement. But as long as there are expectations, the mood will be more or less optimistic.

And today's Zhongzitou stocks do play a role in undertaking the index. However, other heavyweight stocks (such as pharmaceuticals and real estate) other than central enterprises are relatively weak, so the index still fell back after turning red intraday.

Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

Today's leading sector, on the surface, in addition to the "China Shipbuilding Department" is the Chinese word, there are many other plates, but a closer look at the daily limit stocks, in fact, most of them have the concept of state-owned assets.

Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

Just to name a few.

Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon
Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon
Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

CICC pointed out that the recent increase in ETFs and heavyweights is expected to attract attention.

A-shares have rebounded for four consecutive weeks since late October, benefiting from improved investor risk appetite, but have recently seen renewed volatility, suggesting that investor confidence recovery will not happen overnight.

Looking ahead, the domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policy is still in the process of strengthening, the policy expectations have strengthened near the end of the year, and the pressure on A-shares on the US dollar index and US bond interest rates has been eased marginally. Combined with Guoxin Investment's increase in related ETFs, related index funds and their high-weighted stocks are expected to attract attention.

In terms of constituent stocks, statistics show that the top 5 companies with high weights in the central enterprise technology leading index are Hikvision, AVIC Optoelectronics, AVIC Shenfei, Zhenhua Technology, and Baoxin Software.

The top five companies with high weights in the innovation index of central enterprises are Changan Automobile, Guodian NARI, Hikvision, PetroChina, and AVIC Optoelectronics.

In addition to the Chinese prefix, there are two other strong sectors today - pan-AI (cultural media, short dramas, games, etc.) and precious metals.

The former is the strongest main line in the first half of the year, and it can get out of sustainability in the last month of this year, which may be of great help to the performance of many public funds. On the news side, as mentioned in yesterday's push, the provincial and local standards of the "Data Asset Confirmation Work Guide" led by the Zhejiang Provincial Institute of Standardization were officially released and will be officially implemented from tomorrow (December 5).

The strength of the precious metals sector is obviously boosted by gold prices.

Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in public that the Fed's policy rate has now entered a restrictive range. This remark had a clear impact on the gold market, with spot gold hitting an all-time high this morning.

Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

COMEX Gold 3-Day Chart

Guolian Securities said that on the whole, as the inflationary pressure in the United States eased, the job market also showed signs of cooling, the current round of interest rate hike cycle may be nearing the end, the constraints on gold prices have gradually weakened, and the policy easing expectation is expected to drive the price center of gravity to continue to move upward.

Caitong Securities said that according to historical data, gold prices rose sharply before and after the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, with an average duration of 16 months and an average increase of 32.9%. At present, it is at the end of the Fed's 7th round of interest rate hike cycle, and there is a high probability that it will enter the interest rate cut cycle in 2024, and gold prices are expected to usher in a major upward wave.

Today, the weighted sectors that "drag" the performance of the index are mainly pharmaceuticals and real estate.

Earlier today, WuXi Biologics updated its outlook on its official website and significantly lowered its 2023 performance forecast. The company also said that our industry expects to see single-digit growth over the next two years due to a slowdown in biotech financing. It is also expected to break even in 2024, one year earlier than previously expected.

This caused Hong Kong-listed WuXi Biologics to open sharply lower in the morning and suspend trading shortly thereafter until the close of the afternoon, while sentiment in the A-share pharmaceutical sector was also hit.

Guess if the "national team" made a move today? The Shanghai Composite Index turned red in the afternoon

However, at present, institutions are generally optimistic about the industry. Southwest Securities said that from the perspective of the industry, the global pharmaceutical R&D investment has grown steadily, and the CXO industry boom may continue, and it is expected that the global pharmaceutical R&D will continue to grow steadily at a growth rate of 2.6% from 2021 to 2028. From the perspective of enterprises, as the rapid growth of one-time performance of new crown commercial orders continues to digest the valuation disturbance, the market's expectation of the apparent slowdown of related enterprises in 2023 has been fully reflected, and the growth rate of endogenous business will reshape the CXO valuation system.

The real estate sector closed with a small decline and may be a normal adjustment.

According to the latest weekly report on the real estate industry released by Ping An Securities:

Last week, the central bank and other eight departments issued a document to reiterate that it reasonably meets the financial needs of private real estate enterprises; the Shanghai Stock Exchange held a symposium on real estate enterprises in Shanghai, proposing to support the reasonable financing and mergers and acquisitions needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination; CRIC announced the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises from January to November, and the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in November fell by 30% year-on-year, an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared with October, and the sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises from January to November fell by 15% year-on-year.

On the whole, despite the continued easing of the policy side, subject to income and housing price expectations, the recovery momentum of the property market is still insufficient. In terms of investment suggestions, short-term fundamental changes are still the key to affecting the real estate sector, and in the medium and long term, real estate companies with financing and land acquisition advantages, and continuous optimization of asset quality with the help of industry adjustment period are expected to gradually win.

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Cover image source: Screenshot of market software

Every reporter Zhao Yun and every editor Xiao Ruidong