Jia Kang: The real estate market has stabilized, and then the pilot project will be expanded
Against the backdrop of global economic turmoil, the mainland economy continues to maintain a steady and positive growth trend and has become an anchor of global economic stability. As a hot topic in the financial field, the trend of the real estate market has attracted much attention.
From November 30th to December 1st, the 2023 Sohu Finance Annual Forum hosted by Sohu Finance was held in Beijing. More than 30 economists and entrepreneurs reviewed and looked forward to the current international and domestic situation here, and discussed the road of China's economic reform and reconstruction.
Jia Kang, a distinguished expert of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and founding president of the China Institute of New Supply Economics, told the China Times at the forum that China has completely bid farewell to the double-digit high-speed growth stage since 2011, and the central government requires to understand, adapt and lead the new normal, take the supply-side structural reform as the main line, build a modern economic system, and realize the high-quality development of the "upgraded version" supported by structural optimization.
"In the general direction of China, real estate tax is imperative, and the key is how to find a feasible solution. Jia Kang said. In his view, when China's real estate market stabilizes and some popular cities find a reasonable mechanism to achieve long-term, stable and healthy development, we will determine the specific places to enter the pilot expansion of property tax reform.
In the view of Qiu Xiaohua, former director of the National Bureau of Statistics and chief economist of Sunshine Insurance Group, the new round of "housing reform" that has been hotly discussed recently may bring a new pattern of "dual-track system" of affordable housing and commercial housing to real estate in the future. Meng Xiaosu, former head of the National Housing Reform Research Group and former chairman of the China Real Estate Group, also believes that just like the dual-track housing system, young people also have different conditions for which track to take.
The real estate market needs to recover slowly
For real estate, Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, said that the growth of income is not the main product that determines consumer confidence, but housing prices. Housing prices are rising much faster than incomes, and if real estate subsides, it will have a direct impact on consumption.
"The biggest problem with real estate in China right now is overdevelopment, and the result of overdevelopment is that the houses built have exceeded the needs of society. Whether it is the needs of people's livelihood, housing, or business needs generated by economic development, they have surpassed reality. Therefore, it is difficult to sell a property, but if the house price is lowered, it will affect bank credit. If the price of the house drops, it will also affect the evaporation of personal wealth, affect the willingness to consume and the ability to invest, and cause the entire social economy to slow down. Shi Yongqing, founder and chairman of the board of directors of Zhongyuan Group, said in an interview.
He believes that if the market is regulated by the standard of "housing for living, not for speculation", the demand of the market will drop sharply compared with before. In this case, developers who previously relied on high turnover and high leverage will encounter financial problems, and the cash flow will be very tight. Under the three red lines, developers cannot sell quickly, nor can they borrow new money to repay old debts.
For the way to break the game, Shi Yongqing said that the entire industry must face the development of the future of reduced scale and reduced production capacity. In the future, real estate-related industries will slow down.
Jia Kang said that the real estate industry needs to build basic institutions. In the construction of this basic system, it is first necessary to ensure the reform of the land system.
"In terms of the construction of the land system, there must be a basic farmland proportion balance mechanism, coupled with the national statistical collection and storage system, as well as the entire land development reasonable planning of the underlying planning, calmly let the urban-rural junction push out the vacant land, which is a land system reform that requires all aspects of supporting to deal with well. Jia Kang said.
In his view, in the past, local governments used financing platforms to issue urban investment bonds to live, but now these financing platforms must be market-oriented and can be transformed into different forms. For example, companies that build and operate public utilities and local policy financial institutions may also be more fully market-oriented, moving away from the local government background to the national and international markets. However, it is a clear requirement that they are no longer allowed to form hidden liabilities to local governments.
"At present, the competition between countries can only rely on high technology, not real estate. The country's policies will also reduce dependence on real estate. As a member of the industry, we can only face the reality, adjust the scale according to the reality, reduce our own costs through a better development model, hope to get through the low tide, digest the rest, and start again. But those days may not be months, a year or two. It will take quite a few days for the market to slowly recover from the bottom of the market. Shi Yongqing said.
The real economy still needs to find a future growth engine
It's not just the property market that's getting attention.
Wen Yongpeng, chairman of Hongde Fund, said in the exchange that although China's stock market has not performed very well in the past two years, in fact, the average annualized growth rate of the all-A index in the past two decades is basically consistent with the average growth rate of China's nominal GDP.
"In the long run, this is a barometer of China, but if you look at the structure, the rotation of large and small cap styles, the rotation of industry index plates, and the rotation between growth values are as drastic as turning over the river and the sea. Wen Yongpeng believes that this reflects that China's economy has gone through the path of others for decades or even longer in the past two decades, and the stock market's reaction is ahead of its time.
He judged that the stock price will further reflect China's scientific and technological innovation and China's high-quality development, and in these directions, China's market may have further performance.
However, the real economy may face further difficulties.
Tan Yaling, president of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute and an independent economist, said that at present, the divergence, competitiveness and deterioration of monetary policies in emerging markets in developing countries may be a severe risk, so the world economy will be relatively more volatile in 2024, and commodity prices, raw material prices, including the prices of assets and funds may be ups and downs, ups and downs, which will have a particularly big impact on market confidence, and it is also the focus of attention so far in 2024 than in 2023, which is more complex and uncertain.
In the face of the swept new wave, how should enterprises base themselves on the present and lay out the future, and how should they break the old business model and find new growth points? Leaders from VeriSilicon, China Resources Beer, Microcolando, Dongxing Group and other enterprises, as well as representatives of emerging entrepreneurs such as Wenheyou, Helens, Yufeng Future, and Rocket, deciphered the long-lasting survival formula of high-quality enterprises in the big waves and sands, and looked for the future growth engine of enterprises.
"Chips are a high-tech industry, and the development of high-tech, open cooperation is very important. In the international environment, we are now in a situation of decoupling, and there can be 'partial decoupling and precise decoupling', but it should not and cannot be completely decoupled, let alone actively decoupled. Dai Weimin, founder, chairman and president of VeriSilicon, said.
In the view of Zheng Gang, founder of Zihui Venture Capital, the new normal is closely related to the global political landscape and economic growth. At the same time, digitalization, new energy, and new technologies will also promote mankind to move towards a more efficient, clean, and sustainable economic and social form.
Editor-in-charge: Xu Yunqian Editor-in-chief: Gong Peijia