Ma Yiwen: Favorable policies are frequent, and the robot industry is accelerating
Edited: Ye Feng
Live guest: Ma Yiwen, fund manager of Cathay Pacific Quantitative Investment Department
Moderator: Hello everyone, in this issue, we are honored to invite Ma Yiwen, fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Guotai Fund, and before the live broadcast starts, I would also like to ask Mr. Ma to make a brief self-introduction for investors.
Ma Yiwen: Hello investors and friends, I am very happy to come to the live broadcast room to share with you our recent market views, I am Ma Yiwen, the fund manager of the quantitative investment department of Guotai Fund.
Recently, the market performance of the humanoid robot industry chain in the A-share market is also relatively hot, and I also take this opportunity to share our views on the industrial chain.
1. What is a humanoid robot?
Moderator: Mr. Ma mentioned humanoid robots. This year, favorable policies for the humanoid robot industry have been launched across the country, and humanoid robots have also been newly developed, which has attracted the attention of many investors and friends. But what is the difference between humanoid robots and other robots, and what is the definition of humanoid robots in the robot industry? First of all, let's ask Mr. Ma to give us an answer.
Ma Yiwen: Humanoid robots are still a division from the form of robots.
From the perspective of the classification of large categories of robots, it can first be divided according to its application field.
The first type is industrial robots, which are used in the industrial field, especially in some manufacturing industries, such as robotic arms or robots with a relatively high degree of freedom.
The second type is service robots, which are mainly used in some unstructured scenarios to provide some corresponding services to humans. Everyone is more familiar with, such as sweeping robots, which are also service robots, including food delivery robots in hotels, or robots that help everyone with registration services in hospitals, etc., all belong to service-oriented robots.
The third category is special robots, which are actually robots that carry out some specific work in some high-risk environments, or in some scenarios that are not suitable for human beings, such as in some underground mines, or in the deep sea field, etc.
In terms of the market structure of robots, in 2021, industrial robots and service robots will account for 41% and 40% respectively, and special robots will only account for 19%, which means that the two major downstream application fields of robots still come from industry and services.
The humanoid robot we just mentioned is actually divided from its morphological point of view, that is, from another category.
In terms of the form of the product, the humanoid robot, as the name suggests, is that its appearance characteristics are still relatively human-like, including its ability to act, it also walks on two feet, and its own intelligence is relatively high.
In the future, its development direction is to gradually have the thinking ability of the whole person, including some learning ability, etc., in order to achieve a series of functions, and gradually move closer to some human capabilities, which is the characteristic of humanoid robots.
In addition to this, there are two types of robots, legged and handy. Foot-like robots are robots that can move autonomously, such as food delivery robots and sweeping robots just mentioned, which are robots that move freely in some specific scenarios.
Hand robots are more widely used in manufacturing factories, such as robotic arms and welding spraying, which are robots used in some more fixed application scenarios.
Compared with traditional hand-like and leg-like robots, humanoid robots are robots that have been widely used. In terms of morphology, it has a great degree of distinction, and it is a robot that is more like a human.
An important reason for the popularity of humanoid robots this year is that from the dimension of the industrial chain and the policy dimension, humanoid robots have made a lot of progress and catalysis, which is also the reason why everyone pays attention to humanoid robots this year.
According to the forecast of market institutions, the market size of humanoid robots will grow from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $13.8 billion in 2028, and the compound annual growth rate is also expected to reach 50%, which is relatively fast. So in the long run, we think the robot industry chain will usher in a good investment opportunity.
2. Why are humanoid robots popular?
Moderator: After listening to Mr. Ma's answer, we probably also understand some differences between humanoid robots and traditional robots. In essence, the current humanoid robot has many more use scenarios than in the past, and its degree of intelligence will be higher.
The concept of humanoid robots also appeared very early, whether it is science fiction movies, or in real life, we just talked about the food delivery robots we have just come into contact with, etc. Just now, Mr. Ma also mentioned that the market's attention to humanoid robots has increased a lot this year, and I would like to ask Mr. Ma to give us a little more detailed answers, why do humanoid robots have such a high degree of attention this year?
Ma Yiwen: Everyone pays attention to humanoid robots, in fact, it is related to a series of breakthroughs in the industrial chain.
1. Overseas technology manufacturers have launched one after another
Overseas, many technology manufacturers have successively launched their own humanoid robots, including Boston Dynamics' Atlas and Honda, all of which have their own humanoid robots. In particular, the industry benchmark - Musk's humanoid robot, he mentioned last year that it will gradually achieve mass production in the next three to five years. This year, he mentioned that the first batch of robots will be gradually applied to his Tesla production workshop.
Everyone was worried about the humanoid robot industry before, worried that after the humanoid robot was made, whether it would have corresponding applications in the downstream, or whether its commercialization could meet market expectations.
With Musk's statement, he will apply his humanoid robot to Tesla's production workshop in the future. Everyone found that humanoid robots can indeed be implemented in the future, and they can be used commercially, which will bring more overall confidence to the industrial chain.
2. The domestic industry has increased its weight
In addition, China is also increasing the layout of the humanoid industry chain, including its parts, such as reducers, servo systems, etc., and the domestic industrial chain is gradually cutting into the industrial chain of overseas Tesla humanoid robots. For relevant listed companies, in the future, with the gradual implementation of the mass production of humanoid robots, there is still a certain long-term imagination space for its orders or its performance growth.
From the perspective of the whole machine, China is also successively deploying its own humanoid robots, and it has also made some progress. Recently, the first humanoid robot integrating the open source HarmonyOS system was released in China. Therefore, in the future, humanoid robots can gradually enter the relatively high-end manufacturing and intelligent fields such as Hongmeng system, which is also a very important factor for the relatively hot robot industry chain in the near future.
3. Policy support continues to be implemented
In addition, in terms of policy, some industrial policies related to robots have been released across the country. The latest policy is on November 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", which mentions that "humanoid robots are advanced technologies that integrate artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, new materials, etc., and are expected to become subversive products after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles in the future."
Judging from this statement, the industrial status of humanoid robots is still relatively high. If you think about the past few decades, whether it is pan-technology investment or industrial development, the three most important products are computers, smart phones and new energy vehicles.
In the computer age, we may be relatively backward. However, in the era of smart phones, including the era of new energy vehicles, a large number of bull stocks may be more than 10 times that of the A-share market.
The future era of humanoid robots also belongs to this kind of subversive products. In the long run, it will definitely give birth to a large number of leading companies with growth potential in the industrial chain and relatively large long-term imagination space. Therefore, we think there is still a lot of potential for investment opportunities in this area.
In addition, from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned the long-term planning of humanoid robots, it has also set certain planning goals for future development, it mentions that "by 2025, the mass production of the whole machine will be realized in China, and by 2027, a safe and reliable industrial chain supply system will be formed", which also shows that from the highest policy dimension, there is still planning.
For China, many high-level long-term plans are often achieved, and even many are achieved in advance. For example, the long-term penetration plan for new energy vehicles mentioned in 2020 has also been reached in China in advance. Therefore, under the tone of the policy statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, we feel that the mass production and localization of humanoid robots will still be guaranteed by policy strength in the future.
In particular, the domestic independent and controllable ones mentioned here are also the direction we can pay attention to. Let's look at some of the core components of humanoid robots, including some links such as controllers, servos, reducers, etc., the current localization rate is still relatively low, basically less than 40%, that is to say, the overall localization rate still has a lot of room for improvement.
In the field of overall system integration of robots, relatively speaking, the application scenarios are relatively large, such as automobiles or warehousing flows, etc., and the localization rate will be relatively lower.
Overall, in the future of the industrial chain of humanoid robots, its localization rate will increase, or to these high-end applications to gradually break through, this market space or its profit margin, may be relatively higher.
In the long run, whether it is its market size, market growth rate, or its gradual breakthrough in domestic substitution, it will bring long-term growth space to the humanoid robot industry chain.
3. What kind of sparks can AI + robots create?
Moderator: Mr. Ma's answer just now is very detailed, from some of our domestic top-level planning and design, to the various layouts of foreign overseas giants, as well as the reasons for this year's popularity.
Because Mr. Ma just mentioned that our localization rate is still relatively low, the space for domestic substitution is relatively large, and the future development and promotion direction of the industry may be high-end. I would like to ask Mr. Ma more, for the next step, what kind of sparks may be created by the combination of artificial intelligence and robots in the future?
Ma Yiwen: Artificial intelligence is also a very important investment theme in the A-share market this year. Since the release of ChatGPT in the second half of last year, to this year's GPT-4, including domestic iFLYTEK, Xinghuo, Baidu, etc., have gradually released their own artificial intelligence models, and everyone's attention to the artificial intelligence industry chain has also increased very quickly, and the industry has experienced relatively large market fluctuations in the first half of this year.
For the artificial intelligence industry, a very important question for everyone to think about is what applications will it have in the future after its technological development? If we want to do the early development of artificial intelligence, we need to invest a lot of money to buy some artificial intelligence computing chips, servers, communication equipment, etc., and the initial investment cost is relatively large.
What are the directions of its output in the future? We think that it is mainly in the direction of application, and it may go relatively fast. For example, some industries such as games or film and television have gradually applied large models to do some code writing, plot design, and so on.
Another important piece is the direction of the robot, especially the humanoid robot. The hottest so-called embodied intelligence mentioned this year refers to the combination of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots.
From the perspective of traditional robots, without the blessing of artificial intelligence, the work it can do or the overall operation mode are all programmed in advance. For example, like everyone in the food delivery service, or sweeping robots, etc., what it can do is relatively simple. Including some robotic arms in the factory, it is also relatively fixed to do some relatively fixed work. For its generalized use, or rather its versatility, it is not so strong.
In the future, with the combination of humanoid robots and artificial intelligence large models, humanoid robots will gradually have their own learning capabilities. Whether it is its interaction with humans, or in some scenarios in the future, it will learn some ways of working for humans, and then gradually help humans to do some work. In other words, its versatility and generalization will definitely be significantly improved.
This year, there are many overseas tech giants that have launched chatbots like artificial intelligence companions. In the future, the interaction between robots and humans will be relatively strong by intervening in the form of artificial intelligence large models. Including the fact that you can have a series of conversations with it, and these conversations may also be diverse. You ask it a series of questions, and some of its responses and feedback to you may be rich and varied, that is, the humanoid robot will provide some companionship.
For example, overseas logistics and warehousing are also being developed, including in some farms, chefs, etc., and gradually let robots learn human handling, and even human cooking. These are relatively unstructured, not only to control the robot's body, speed, and use of power, but also to identify a series of objects in the surrounding scene. For example, in the storage environment, it is necessary to identify what needs to be moved, where to move, and so on.
On the whole, in some relatively industrial, or actual production scenarios, the learning ability of humanoid robots may be more obvious.
With its AI capabilities, some of the jobs it can do in the future will be relatively more diverse. Whether it is commercialized or its value embodiment, it may be relatively more prominent.
Fourth, the aging of the population drives the development of the robot industry
Moderator: Mr. Ma's answer just now is very exciting. Personally, I have some small opinions, whether artificial intelligence, or robots, humanoid robots, it can be said that it is to replace people to do some work, or to replace people to accompany us, such as the elderly or the companionship of young children, or the use of specific scenes just now. This has a lot to do with the demographics of each country, as well as the actual technological productivity.
In the long run, many countries, including our own, are facing the problem of aging population, which is also an important reason for the development of robots. Because of the shortage of young labor, there must be some robot-like labor to replace it. Next, please also explain to us in detail, is there any specific relationship between the aging of the population and the robot industry?
Ma Yiwen: An intuitive data, from a global perspective, the density of robots in each country, that is, the number of robots: the number of people density index, and the proportion of the aging population in each country in the world has a relatively obvious positive correlation. In other words, from a global perspective, the more aging the population of a country, the higher the density of robots.
Let's take some simple examples, such as Japan, which is known to be an aging country. For example, the proportion of people over 65 years old has reached more than 25%, which is also higher than some other larger countries, and its robot density has reached 390 per 10,000 people.
In comparison, some populations are also relatively old, such as Sweden and Germany, where 20% of the population is relatively high, and the density of robots is 289 per 10,000 people and 371 per 10,000 people, respectively. That is to say, with the increase in the proportion of the overall aging population, the density of robots will have a significant increase.
The reason for this is also very simple, with the advancement of the aging population, relatively speaking, the proportion of the population of labor age will be relatively reduced. For some manufacturing countries, on the one hand, there is a certain increase in labor costs. In addition, after the reduction in the number of labor in the manufacturing industry, there is indeed a certain labor gap.
In the future, the necessity for us to develop humanoid robots is reflected in the trend of an aging population. In the future, if we can gradually use some robots to replace humans, for example, in manufacturing factories, to replace humans to do certain jobs, on the one hand, it is relatively low, and on the other hand, it can also make up for the gap in the gradual decline of the labor force.
If we look at the overall population change trend in China and the overall density change trend of robots, it also reflects the characteristics just mentioned. For example, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15 to 64 in the total population was 74.5% in our country in 2010, which is still relatively high overall.
By 2021, that number had dropped to between 68% and 69%. In other words, in the 11 years from 2010 to 2021, the proportion of the working-age population in the total population actually declined by about 6%. This also shows that there is a trend of aging population in the mainland, and the proportion of our working-age population has declined.
The density of robots in China is also increasing rapidly, from 10 per 10,000 people in 2010 to 322 per 10,000 people in 2021, and its improvement speed is also very fast.
This also reflects the trend of the gradual decrease in our labor force, there is indeed a corresponding market demand for robots, including in the case of a more serious aging population in the future, many elderly people may be accompanied by him in the future, and we can gradually solve it through some humanoid robots with companionship capabilities.
In addition, for example, in the manufacturing field such as factories just mentioned, the problem of lack of labor population can also be gradually replaced by some robots to solve the problem of lack of labor.
We feel that the trend of population aging is also a very important driving force for the development of the humanoid robot industry.
Fifth, there is a broad space for domestic substitution of robots
Moderator: Thank you, Mr. Ma. Many of the robots we just mentioned are foreign, such as the layout and production of some large companies that are very famous in the world, including Japanese and American. In our country, Mr. Ma also mentioned that we are now to be a manufacturing power and self-reliance in science and technology, and also put forward a lot of policy background.
As Mr. Ma said just now, we want domestic substitution, including a lot of space, including the breakthrough of information innovation and chips. In terms of robots, are there also some more detailed, or can we see the direction at the moment?
Ma Yiwen: Okay. From the perspective of the whole robot, in the past two years, we have also released some humanoid robot products, just mentioned that Leju Robot released the first robot based on the open source Hongmeng system, which also caught up with some of Huawei's corresponding concepts. Therefore, there is still a certain breakthrough in the whole machine.
However, we feel that the difficulty or pain point is relatively concentrated in its industrial chain, especially the domestic substitution of some core components, and there is still a certain gap in the overall technical strength.
From the perspective of the industrial chain of the robot, or from its overall composition, its core components are three major parts, that is, the reducer, servo and controller. These three pieces in its cost structure can account for almost 35%, 25% and 15% respectively, adding up to more than 70%. Comparatively speaking, the cost of the robot itself accounts for only 10%.
Everyone listens to this concept is relatively clear, the three largest pieces in the value chain of the robot itself are from the reducer, servo and controller, these three pieces are the direction we can focus on, including its localization rate.
1. a reducer
In the part of the reducer, the function it achieves is similar to the human tendon, which is the key component that supports the joint movement of the robot. At present, it is mainly divided into harmonic reducer and RV reducer. The harmonic reducer is mainly used to drive the robot wrist, and the RV reducer is actually used to drive the robot body. These two are the two reducers that are currently used more in the reducer market, especially in the robot market.
In terms of the current market structure, whether it is an RV reducer or a harmonic reducer, it is a part that plays a tendon role in the robot body, and the market share of Japanese manufacturers ranks first in the world. Therefore, the market share of several Japanese head manufacturers is relatively high.
In terms of localization rate, like the domestic harmonic reducer, its technical strength has gradually approached the foreign and overseas leaders. In terms of some processing technology, its difficulties have been basically overcome, and it can meet some conventional use.
However, in some mass production scenarios, its quality control, including its extreme use, the overall stability of this product still has some room for improvement, and there are still certain difficulties.
In the field of RV reducer segmentation, compared with Japanese products, there is also a certain gap in the accuracy of domestic reducer, including its wear resistance. Therefore, in this area, the country is still in the stage of gradually catching up.
From the perspective of localization rate, like harmonic reducer and RV reducer, its localization rate in 2022 will be almost 44% and 32% respectively, that is to say, the localization rate does still have a relatively large room for improvement.
2. Servo system
The second component is the servo system. The servo system is also an important part of the robot's drive system. It can control the position, speed and acceleration of the mechanical system through a certain closed-loop control method. The functions it achieves are more similar to those of the human heart, including muscles and so on.
In terms of the market share of the servo system, in the past, it was mainly occupied by several Japanese companies, such as Yaskawa, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, etc., including some manufacturers such as Siemens in overseas Europe and the United States.
In the past few years, in terms of localization rate, especially in some low-end low-end low-power products, its technical level has been able to gradually level with overseas. However, in some high-end markets, the competitiveness is still relatively weak, including some product homogenization and other phenomena.
Some core technologies, including servo motors, core chips in servo drives, and high-precision encoders, foreign manufacturers still have certain advantages.
From the perspective of localization rate, the localization rate of servo motors and servo systems is 31% and 38% respectively, which is relatively less than 40%.
3. Control system
The third component is the control system. Control systems are used in smart cars, including in some advanced manufacturing fields such as robots. On the robot, it plays the function of the brain, and it will gradually control the corresponding movement of the robot according to the operation instructions of the robot, including some situations and signals fed back by its sensors.
At present, the development of domestic robot controllers is relatively mature, and the technical gap with overseas is relatively small.
At present, its differences are mainly reflected in the software level, especially the level of some algorithms, including the applicability of its secondary platform development, etc., there is a certain gap in this aspect.
From the perspective of the localization rate, it is currently at the level of more than 30%.
Generally speaking, like the three core components, the localization rate is in the range of 40% or below.
In the long run, with the breakthrough of domestic high-end manufacturing technology, including the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology for the long-term planning of robots, especially in the core parts link, we still have a certain confidence in the technological breakthrough of the robot industry.
Under the logic of domestic machine substitution breakthrough, there is still hope for some leading listed companies in the market. Let's look back, like the last round, including in 2019 and 2020, the semiconductor chip industry chain has also given birth to many listed companies with huge increases under the guidance of industrial trends of policies and technological breakthroughs.
In the future, if there are such companies with technological breakthroughs and leading industrial trends in the humanoid robot industry chain, it will also drive the robot industry chain to achieve a good market. Therefore, domestic substitution is also a very important investment logic for us to pay attention to in the robot industry.
Sixth, the current valuation of the robot industry is low
Moderator: To sum up, we have just talked about the impact of artificial intelligence, aging, and domestic substitution on the development of the robot industry, which may be some trending things. Judging from the current industry valuation, do you think there are any current opportunities in the robot industry?
Ma Yiwen: The robot industry still belongs to the manufacturing industry and is included in the machinery industry. In the large machinery industry, it belongs to the subdivision of general equipment. Whether it is looking at its profitability or its valuation, it has a certain cyclicality.
For example, if we look at several subdivisions of machinery and equipment fields with traditional general equipment attributes, such as industrial machine tools, forklifts, industrial robots, etc., some general machinery and equipment, from their own cycle dimension, there is a cyclical fluctuation trend of three to four years in history. A very important reason for this is to follow the repeated fluctuations in the demand of the downstream manufacturing industry.
Historically speaking, the last round of industrial robot boom cycle was gradually opened from the end of 2019, and in the first half of 2021, the year-on-year output of industrial robots in that month also gradually reached its peak.
Subsequently, under the influence of some influences such as the impact of the epidemic and overseas interest rate hikes, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial robots continued to decline.
By September and October of this year, it had reached the stage of historical bottom. Including some general equipment such as industrial robots, industrial machine tools, forklifts, etc., have reached the historical low point of year-on-year growth in output and sales.
At present, from the perspective of valuation, the current valuation of the CSI Robot Index, its valuation is actually 40.04 times, which is located at the historical 10.59% quantile, which is already a relatively low position in history.
We see that there is still a certain trend of repair in the domestic macro economy this year, including the manufacturing PMI, which has also rebounded from the low point in the previous period. Although it has been a brief decline below 50 in the past two months, on the whole, we feel that there is still a trend of upward recovery.
If we look at the year-on-year growth rate of finished industrial product inventories, whether we look at the situation in China or the United States, from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, we may gradually enter the stage of replenishing inventories. At this stage, there will be a more obvious stretching effect on the industrial demand of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, for the prosperity of the robot industry, it will also have an effect of improving.
Therefore, at the current stage, we feel that we can be optimistic about the follow-up market of the robot industry chain.
Let's look at the profit growth rate of the industrial chain, in 2023 and 2024, there is still hope to return to a relatively high profit growth rate.
Combined with the current relatively low valuation, the repair of the industrial chain boom, and the expectation of future profit growth, it is still more cost-effective to lay out the robot industry at present.
7. How to lay out the robot industry?
Moderator: Finally, let's take a look at the issues that investors are most concerned about, if you want to lay out the robot industry at the moment, how do you think you should grasp it?
Ma Yiwen: The robot industry, we believe that it is still a relatively early and rapidly developing industry. If you choose individual stocks, it is relatively difficult to do so.
Let's look back, whether it is a new energy vehicle or a semiconductor chip industry chain, the differences between early listed companies are not so big. In the future, there may be some gaps in the technical strength of these enterprises, or differences in downstream applications, etc., so a series of leading companies are gradually born. In the early stage, if you can't see clearly, or it is relatively difficult to select stocks, you can also consider using some index funds to layout.
Recently, we have also listed the robot industry ETF (159551), which can help you fully grasp the investment opportunities in the robot industry.
In addition, the current macro economy is also in a stage where liquidity is relatively loose. This year, there have been two rounds of interest rate cuts, including the expectation of interest rate hikes such as overseas, which has gradually ended, and overseas liquidity has also improved significantly.
Combined with the fact that the domestic macro economy is still in a state of weak repair, some small and medium-sized companies still have certain performance opportunities.
For the CSI Robot Index, its market capitalization is distributed in the range of relatively small and medium-sized market capitalization. The average market value of the CSI Robot Index tracked by the Robot Industry ETF is actually relatively small, only more than 16 billion yuan, which is also more in line with the current investment opportunities in the small and medium-sized market capitalization.
In terms of historical market, the beta coefficient of the robot industry index relative to the Shanghai Composite Index can basically reach about 1.17, which means that its index elasticity is still relatively strong.
At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is around 3,000 points, which is relatively low, at the 20% to 30% quantile of the past 10 years, which means that the market is currently in a relatively low position.
If there is a certain rebound in the follow-up market, you can pay attention to some flexible directions, such as our robot industry ETF (159551), and the science and technology innovation board 100 ETF (588120) with the layout of pan-technology, etc.
These varieties are relatively flexible, and at the same time focus on the fields of scientific and technological manufacturing or advanced manufacturing. In the case of the market at a low valuation, and there is a certain room for a rebound in the future, the external environment and the domestic macroeconomic repair, we can pay attention to it.
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