Involving credit, real estate, and local debt, the forum of financial institutions of the three ministries and commissions sent a number of signals
On the evening of November 17, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration of Financial Supervision and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a forum for financial institutions. The meeting stressed that in the next step, it is necessary to continue to strengthen the implementation of policies and the promotion of work, and persistently create a good monetary and financial environment.
At the same time, the meeting also focused a lot on the real estate market. The meeting pointed out that all financial institutions should meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination, and should not hesitate to lend, draw, or break loans to real estate enterprises that are in normal operation; and continue to make good use of the "second arrow" to support private real estate enterprises in issuing bonds for financing.
A number of interviewed analysts believe that the symposium focused on and focused on solving the main contradictions and outstanding problems faced by the current financial sector, and it is expected that the relevant departments will accelerate the implementation of the spirit of the Central Financial Work Conference in the next step, and the policy of stabilizing the economy should continue to exert force, and if necessary, increase the implementation of new countermeasures and measures, and more effectively promote macroeconomic stability and recovery.
Focus on credit delivery
Consider the credit supply in the second two months of this year and the beginning of next year
The meeting pointed out that in the next step, it is necessary to properly implement the requirements of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, focus on strengthening the balanced supply of credit, and take into account the provision of credit in the last two months of this year and the beginning of next year, so as to promote the steady growth of the mainland's economy with the stability of credit growth.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that since the beginning of this year, due to the tortuous process of economic recovery, the credit demand of the real economy and the large changes in bank risk appetite, credit delivery has fluctuated greatly. In order to maintain stable support for the economic recovery, credit allocation should be more balanced and avoid similar big ups and downs.
According to the data of the central bank, in the first ten months, the cumulative increase in social financing was 31.19 trillion yuan, 2.33 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and the increase in RMB loans was 20.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.68 trillion yuan year-on-year. However, the macroeconomic recovery is not stable, and the financing needs of enterprises and households are still not strong, and further boosts are needed.
Wang Qing believes that the remaining two months of this year are usually "small months" for credit, and banks may also increase project reserves in pursuit of a "good start" for credit early next year, which will exacerbate the "bumps" in credit data. The purpose of this meeting is to ask banks to avoid excessive pursuit of credit "good start" early next year, and reduce the scale of credit supply in November and December this year, and strive to achieve a balanced supply, so as to provide a favorable financial environment for consolidating the momentum of economic recovery by the end of the year.
The meeting also emphasized that it is necessary to optimize the structure of capital supply, revitalize the stock of financial resources, increase financial support for major strategies, key areas and weak links, and enhance the sustainability of financial support for the real economy.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian Financial, said that the meeting not only required banks to make overall plans for credit delivery, but also to increase structural adjustment, revitalize existing loan resources, strive to maintain the stability of the growth of enterprise loans and the sustainability of the growth of residents' loans, and promote the stable growth of the mainland economy with the stability and sustainability of credit growth.
Wang Qing believes that this mainly refers to the issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace the stock of implicit debts of local governments, etc., to release the huge amount of bank credit resources precipitated in the implicit debts, focusing on scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development and small and medium-sized enterprises and other fields, so as to optimize the capital supply structure.
Focus on real estate
Meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination
This meeting has a lot of expressions about the real estate market. The meeting pointed out that recently, the financial sector and the industry authorities jointly held a symposium on representative real estate enterprises to investigate and understand the main financial needs of the industry's risk resolution and high-quality development. All financial institutions should meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems without discrimination.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the conference itself is not a special conference on real estate finance, but the large mention of real estate shows the importance attached to real estate finance. This also illustrates the importance and urgency of real estate to prevent and resolve financial risks. This is also the implementation of the relevant requirements of the Central Financial Work Conference.
Wang Qing expects that at the end of this year, banks will significantly increase credit to real estate enterprises, such as strong support for "guaranteed delivery", alleviate the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises at the end of the year, curb the momentum of credit risk exposure, and then stabilize social expectations and boost market confidence. At the same time, on the demand side of the property market, the policy side will also promote the orderly relaxation of purchase restrictions in key cities, and guide the residential mortgage interest rate to further decline.
It is worth noting that the meeting also pointed out that it is necessary to actively serve the construction of the "three major projects" such as affordable housing, accelerate the supply-side reform of real estate finance, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Yan Yuejin believes that the mention of the supply-side reform of real estate finance shows that financial institutions will have new actions in the real estate field, especially from the perspective of promoting the development of real estate enterprises and ensuring housing demand.
"Next, it is possible to increase support for the construction of the "three major projects" through special loans from the central bank and PSL (supplementary mortgage loans). Wang Qing expects that this will help stabilize the growth rate of real estate investment and infrastructure investment, maintain the momentum of macroeconomic recovery, and is also an important part of the supply-side reform of real estate finance.
Focus on local debt risks
Reasonably reduce the cost of debt and optimize the term structure
The meeting also focused on local debt risks. The meeting demanded that the financial sector should follow the principles of marketization and rule of law, cooperate with local governments to steadily resolve the stock and strictly control the new addition. Financial institutions should improve the working mechanism, highlight key points, implement policies by category, carry out equal consultations with financing platforms, reasonably reduce debt costs, optimize the term structure, and ensure that financial support for local debt risk resolution is implemented in detail through extension, repayment of old loans, and replacement.
Wang Qing believes that this means that after the large-scale issuance of special refinancing bonds and the central bank will provide emergency liquidity loan support to areas with relatively heavy debt burdens, the third content of the "debt package" has been implemented.
In Wang Qing's view, this is mainly for all kinds of debts of local government financing platforms, including operating debts, to guide banks and other financial institutions to implement restructuring through commercialization and marketization, and the core is to extend interest rate cuts, and the debt risks of local government financing platforms will be effectively alleviated in the next two years. This will also help promote the orderly transformation of the platform and lay the foundation for the establishment of a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local debt risks.
In addition, Dong Ximiao believes that in the next step, the financial regulator should adhere to the process of growth and development to resolve debt risks, clarify the division of responsibilities, adhere to classified disposal, adhere to the combination of resolving short-term contradictions and achieving long-term goals, and resolve local debt risks in stages and regions.
"In the future, we should give full play to the synergy between finance and finance to resolve local debt risks. Dong Ximiao said that financial institutions can take measures such as loan extension, interest rate reduction, and debt replacement under the package of debt to help local governments revitalize their assets, and take multiple measures to help local governments gradually resolve the risk of existing debts.
Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Jiang Fan
Edited by Bai Huabing and proofread by Zhao Lin