The latest economic data is out: the "truth" of the magical rebound of the manufacturing industry, and the strongest main line of the market has appeared
Recently, heavy economic data released:
China's official manufacturing PMI for September was 50.2 vs 50 expected and 49.7 previously.
Non-manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 51.6 expected vs 51 prior.
Composite PMI 52, previous value 51.3.
This means that China's manufacturing industry has magically rebounded against the background of weak expectations and weak reality.
Then the question arises:
Is this a bottoming out? Or is the policy showing effect? Or did the economic census have an immediate effect?
To do this, I asked business owners spread across different industries, and the magic happened:
Basically, they are stockpiling materials and putting in equipment..... Ready to go big.....
Note that I use the word "prepared" because the sales situation in the vast majority of my many businesses has not improved, but there are already signs of "improvement".
For example: inquiries began to increase, foreign trade orders increased.....
This means that the probability of a rebound in the manufacturing sector is very real, which is broadly consistent with our previous judgment on September 20.
It's not that I'm not a prophet, but so many "policies" are raining down, and positive feedback is needed, otherwise this will make the relevant departments very "embarrassed".
Note, however, that it is too early to assert a "full recovery."
On the one hand, the continuity is yet to be verified, and it is obviously too frizzy to make a judgment based on only one or two months of data.
Gold Nine Silver Ten is the peak consumption season, and coupled with foreign "Black Friday" and "Christmas" orders, the rebound of the manufacturing index itself in September is expected;
On the other hand, the consumption that is already in it now is more passive consumption;
After all, deposit interest rates continue to fall, financial management continues to lose money, and the stock market and property market are even sadder for those who talk about it, and tears for those who hear it.......
So how will the funds lying in the account be used? If there is no way out, it is not as good as consumption, which further reinforced the rebound of the manufacturing index in September and October.
While it is still too early to say a "full economic recovery", what is certain is that:
When everyone feels that the economy is bad, they feel the chill, the worst is almost over.
This also means that hyping the expectation of economic recovery will become the main theme of the big A after the holiday.
Referring to the recent trend of the Hong Kong stock market and the policy expectations of the "conference" in mid-November, the conclusion that Big A will usher in a "recovery" trend will be more and more confirmed.
Specifically, you can refer to the wave that began to rally in October last year.
This is certainly a welcome phenomenon for retail investors who choose to hold shares for the holidays.
But mind you, I don't think it's without variability.
If the subsequent discovery cannot be sustained, it is necessary to decisively clear the warehouse, and the reason is not complicated.
The real situation may not be so good, but it is not so bad, but under the trend of human nature, it is the norm to rise more and fall more.
The so-called, the valley is easy to fill, and the desire of people is difficult to peace.
I am Xie Xiaobai, who wants your wealth to be free
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