The eight-day Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday has begun. Just at the beginning of the journey, many passengers complained on social media that before they set off, the price of the tickets purchased in advance has been greatly reduced, and the tickets purchased by some passengers at the beginning of the month are now reduced by 50%, and even some passengers have "lost" thousands of yuan.
For example, a netizen complained that he booked a ticket from Kunming to Taiyuan on September 29 20 days in advance, and the round-trip price for two people was more than 4,800 yuan. But recently, he found that the price had dropped to more than 2,400 yuan, and his mood was like riding a "5-discount roller coaster".
Encountering similar situations may not be isolated phenomena, causing confusion and discussion among many netizens, and some netizens found that the local air ticket price is even lower than that of high-speed rail tickets. This phenomenon surprised and unacceptable to many netizens. They said that when they bought the ticket, they did not find that the price had dropped significantly, and if they did not see other people's orders, they might not know that they were pitted by the high-priced ticket, and many netizens expressed their collapse. Many passengers are also confused, saying that they do not know what to do with the tickets they have already purchased and whether they should refund and repurchase them.
With prices fluctuating so much in a month, how do airlines respond? Why did the ticket price "plunge" so much? To this end, the reporter interviewed airlines, industry experts and relevant practitioners.
Airlines: If the difference is large after price comparison
Refunds can be made for purchase
Yang Yu (pseudonym) originally planned to travel to Tibet during this year's holiday, checked the ticket from Chengdu to Lhasa a week in advance, and found that the lowest ticket price for September 29 and 30 given by the platform at that time was about 1,000 yuan, and the ticket price for other times was about 700 yuan ~ 800 yuan. On the evening of the 28th, he found that the entire air ticket to Lhasa has been reduced, of which the fare for the 30th has been reduced to about 600 yuan, and the lowest fare during the long holiday has been reduced to 350 yuan ~ 400 yuan, a significant reduction.
A netizen said that on September 28, from Chengdu to Urumqi, a single round trip cost 4,054 yuan when buying a ticket in early September, but when he inquired again on September 27, the round-trip ticket for the same flight had dropped to 1,850 yuan, and he felt very helpless, and the two people had lost more than 4,000 yuan before the tour began. When I went to Sanya on May Day, I booked tickets on a temporary basis, and the air tickets were very expensive, and I bought tickets early for this holiday, but I didn't expect it to be more expensive.
And this does not seem to be a special case, with the arrival of the holiday, the phenomenon of ticket diving has also been widely concerned by the outside world.
Hangzhou lady Dandan ridiculed: "Buying a ticket now is also the feeling of buying a stock." She said that she just swiped a video of "Why did the eleventh ticket dive" on her mobile phone, and immediately went to see her previous itinerary, which was really cheaper than before.
Dan Danfa's circle of friends (the net profit figure is wrong, the actual is 5490 yuan). Image source: Orange Persimmon Interactive
The itinerary is to fly to Xishuangbanna, two families go, are a combination of 2 adults and 1 child, a total of 6 people. They planned to travel on a staggered schedule, so they decided to leave on October 4 and booked a return ticket on October 8.
The first order on September 13 cost a total of 22,614 yuan Image source: Orange Persimmon Interactive
The first order was placed on September 13, and it was booked together with "hotel + air ticket + car rental" on the travel platform, spending a total of 22,614 yuan. After seeing the news, I tried the refund and rebooked, this time it cost a total of 17124 yuan. In comparison, the average person who came and went saved more than 900 yuan, and the total travel expenses of 6 people saved 5490 yuan.
Dandan and his friends calculated this account, but they didn't expect to book more than 10 days apart, and the price fluctuated quite a lot.
In comparison, the total cost savings of the six people were 5490 yuan. Image source: Orange Persimmon Interactive
A Shanghai netizen said: "I have suffered a loss once during the summer vacation, and I set more than 6,000 round trips to Xinjiang 20 days in advance, and when I set off, I was only in my early 3,000s." This afternoon, a Guangdong netizen also said, "The ticket I bought half a month ago, just took a look, and it dropped by almost half." In addition, some netizens said that "600 Jinan flying to Wu City" and "Guangzhou flying to Wuhan, cheaper than high-speed rail tickets are also unexpected".
The reporter searched for air ticket prices during the National Day period and saw that the prices of many routes were indeed very cheap, such as the ticket from Chengdu to Urumqi on October 3, and even the lowest was only 93 yuan.
Even if it departs on September 28 before the National Day, the minimum is only 400 yuan, which is still a high-quality time for the afternoon departure. "In the past, Chengdu to Xinjiang, the May National Day soared to 2,000, and now 400 yuan before the festival is difficult to understand." Some travelers said.
At the same time, the reporter inquired through the air travel horizontally that the overall price of round-trip air tickets during the long holiday and after the long holiday is not much different.
On September 30, when departing from Chengdu to Urumqi, the round-trip air ticket fare was mostly around 1,800 yuan, and when the return trip was approaching, it became more than 2,000 yuan. It is worth noting that from October 7 to 27 after the holiday, the round-trip air ticket price is no different from the holiday, mostly concentrated in the range of 1693 yuan ~ 1793 yuan.
The same is true for tickets from Beijing to Guangzhou, another popular route. The round-trip ticket price on September 30 is about 1096 yuan, and between October 7~21, the price is about 1059 yuan.
Shanghai to Sanya air ticket October 1 ~ 28, only October 28 is 870 yuan, holiday and weekday price difference is not much, round-trip air ticket price fluctuation between 1218 yuan ~ 1496 yuan.
For the price diving phenomenon, a relevant person on a third-party ticketing platform told reporters through WeChat that the air ticket prices were set by airlines.
To this end, the reporter consulted the customer service of an airline by phone as a passenger. The other party responded that this situation has indeed occurred in recent days. The sale price of a ticket is inherently volatile, so it's not always a bargain to book sooner. The airline will not make up the difference in fare, it is recommended that passengers compare the prices by themselves, and if the difference is large, they can choose to refund and repurchase.
Industry: This may be due to the high expectations of airlines in the early stage
The main reason for the sudden plunge in some ticket prices before the holiday may be overcapacity.
According to the big data of airline travel, during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, the total number of flights planned to be carried out is nearly 140,000, and the average daily flight volume increased by about 20% compared with the same period in 2019. According to flight steward data, as of September 13, the average daily planned flight volume of some city lines has increased by 1 times compared with 2019, such as Chengdu-Changsha, Chengdu-Hangzhou, Chengdu-Wuhan and other routes.
Bookings did not increase proportionally compared to the significant increase in capacity. According to the big data of airline travel, as of September 25, the number of air ticket bookings during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday has only basically recovered to the same period in 2019.
The increase in summer passenger flow has not kept pace with the increase in capacity. According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China, during the summer of 2023 (July 1 to August 31), civil aviation transported 130 million passengers, an increase of 7.4% over the same period in 2019. However, China National Airlines guarantees an average of 14,087 domestic passenger flights per day, an increase of 14.83% over the same period in 2019.
Compared with the supply and demand relationship of oversupply, air ticket prices are still high. According to flight steward data, as of September 27, the number of domestic air ticket orders during the double festival increased by 1.2 times compared with May Day this year. The average price of domestic air tickets (economy class) was 1,078 yuan, an increase of more than 40% compared with the National Day in 2022 and more than 10% compared with the National Day in 2019.
According to a number of third-party institutions, the popularity of the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday will rise to a higher level, so the ticket is priced higher in the pre-sale stage. However, because actual demand could not fill all supply, the actual sales situation was not satisfactory in the run-up to the holidays, and many routes still had seats available, so the pre-holiday ticket price was significantly reduced.
On September 29, Zhang Zhining, CEO of Reliable Tourism, told reporters through WeChat that on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, domestic air ticket prices were high and low, mainly affected by changes in supply and demand. Most tourists complete their travel planning and air ticket booking for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays a week or even earlier before the National Day holiday. When ticket bookings are about to peak and seats are still available on some flights, airlines will fill as many seats as possible by lowering fares to stimulate potential users to book tickets.
Previously, on September 8, according to the "2023 Mid-Autumn Festival National Day Outlook" released by Ctrip's FlightAI aviation intelligent big data, the daily booking popularity of 2019 showed that the number of users who booked travel during the November holiday increased rapidly 15 days before the holiday, peaked on the first day of the holiday, and then fell sharply. As of September 3, the trend in the early part of 2023 is basically the same as in previous years, and it is expected to welcome the centralized booking of 11 travel orders in the week before the holiday.
Civil aviation expert Lin Zhijie believes that the degree of diving in ticket prices near the holiday is indeed uncommon. He told reporters in WeChat that this reflects that the popularity of air travel during this year's November holiday may not be as expected, and the sales progress is lagging behind, so there is a situation of price inversion.
According to industry insiders, some airlines have reported that even if they release low prices, the load factor has not increased significantly.
A staff member at an airport in Chengdu told reporters that he believed that the main reason was the high expectations of airlines in the early stage, so the fare has been lowered now. The airport staff also said that in this case, the airline will not make up the difference, compared with the refund fee, if the fare is too high, consumers choose to refund and buy again.
Source: Daily Economic News, Interface News, Orange Persimmon Interactive Editor: Chen Seed, Editor: Huang Qing Chen JinfangEditor-in-chief: Li Chun
Executive Producer: Hu Yang
Producer: Shenyang Net Statement: In addition to original content and special instructions, the text and pictures of the push manuscript are from the Internet and major mainstream media. The copyright belongs to the original author. If you believe that the content is infringing, please contact us to remove it.
👇 Poke the video, here is more exciting 👇